Earlier posts · Page 16
Tweets-Feb/19/2021
As octopus as sentient s humans mite be worthwhile to consider reducing consumption of octopus.
Tweets-Feb/18/2021
Round numbers beached from upside. Nikkei 30000 , SP3900… will the non-quarterly expiration breach numbers from downside? NY numbers guess yes.
studio.youtube.com/video/lu9ij58S3wU/edit… meals for a life time in this. buying momentum, in individual stocks, bitcoin breaking thru , deception galora in opens, the octopus as master of deception, importance of constructal numbers at all.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Wos8kouz810… better to study this for market insights than 90% of market books.
Tweets-Feb/17/2021
The top trophic levels against new and existing entrants to lowest, level "The coordinated effort by Wall Street, the media, and Big Tech to crash meme stocks’ meteoric rise is just one of many that "make pubic lose so much more than they have rite to lose" zero hedge.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=92nG8EfzsVI… Nadal loses to wristy opponent. How not to play tennis for both.
How not to trade with wristy trades like tsitsipas shots. Sporadic rises like tsisspiw.
Tweets-Feb/16/2021
Bitcoin having breached the Sogi level of 50000 , and Nikkei breaching 30000 , everything in consilience. my bearish forecast established at 3952.50 become less unlikely.
Guaranteed to happy. the more an area prospers the greater the hammer to reduce pursuit of happiness.
Wolfies delicates. significance covered in Sennett Niederhoffer podcast today at 530pm est today.
Guaranteed to happen white shoe firm offers its expertise to 8 million new investors as regulatory agencies investigate the ephemeral profits before buying banned.
The way I heard it. ruby and grandparents move form Katz to Wolfies in winter.
Tweets-Feb/15/2021
Many construtal goals achieved today Nikkei 30000, crude 60000, bonds 16500 - /
I'll take the plunge and reduce all my longs to 0%.. also a sogi at 3950, only waiting for bitcoins 50000 to complete harmonization. but you cant have everything SP up about 10 days in row.
Mr Ag trades notes that I've achieved more follower today than in the past 2 years combined.. " why" algo must have finally seen my repeated posts " the more woke we were the more bullish it is".
even Jim Lorie once closed out his longs in early 1987. He sold at 320 sp.. he held not long until SP 450 until October 19/1987 then when baker did it and SP swooned to 320 again he covered his shorts alngnd vowed never to remain less than 200%.
Back lash against Florida to ban travel so as not to let certain states of another color look bad. Reminds me of Hobo keeley said " I should pay him to be around me because he's the only person that makes me look good in comparison.
Grandfather's martin's working as Irving berlin's accountant before trading with the boy wonder as I hold shorts.
Tweets-Feb/13/2021
Nobody aske me but there is more and more buzz about interest rates going up . expect the 165 handle on Monday.
Example of Florida and its heroes receiving "short stick " these days https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Flagler
One is calling for a substantial decline in sp starting in a few days. what would be a good place to maintains assets in for the duration rather than shorting sp which is ruinous, deathly, and against the drift.
Nobody asked me but sessile predators ,( carnivores e.g) get more prey per effort t than mobile predators. would the same apply to markets?
Cattle trader who is usually right on point calls for a crash?? that's very dangerous and ruinous. so many I know have called for same and ended in the hoosegow. Be very careful with a exact non-delphic prediction like that.
2 thins. Please remember not to send me things that could be construed as non- woke. like the shout that Florida mentons are becoming increasingly woke. 2 what is Mr. Wallon lately my most sensible followed.
Tweets-Feb/12/2021
Slowly but surely the bonds set one 6 month minimum after another ( not without giving longs in bonds some hope).
The showboating and wasted energy and distractions with the antis of Kyrgios was the cause of the loss to them. Its a good model for what not to do with your trades. slow but steady and not boasting is the key.
Three Point
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
Phil Musia in the post has an article about how the three point shot which has gone up to 80 per game from 20 years ago is ruining the basketball game. What aspects of markets have changed for the worse in the last 20 years?
Penny Brown writes:
What's worse? The abandonment of the up tick rule for shoring.
Last Train
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
To paradise: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=henry+flagler+last+train+to+paradise&crid=2K4P028N815Z3&sprefix=
train+to+paradise+henry%2Caps%2C166&ref=nb_sb_ss_ts-doa-p_1_23 tells the story of a great adventures and benefactor of Florida and the country written in 20002 without the cancel culture exerting too much of these influence. highly regomme3nde and inspiring as to what an man of integrity and the books should aspire to.
Jeffery Watson writes:
That book is a must read for anyone who loves the history of Florida.
Tim Melvin writes:
The authors fiction books set in Florida are also outstanding reads.
What Does Dr Burry Mean by His btc Mining Tweet Today
Alex Castaldo writes:
what does dr burry mean by his btc mining tweet today
(20) Cassandra on Twitter: "70% of $BTC is mined in sanctioned countries, China, Iran, Russia. Crypto is in a race - add enough reputable agents of commerce to counter and overcome the inevitable coordinated actions of the ECB/BoJ/Fed/IMF/WorldBank-level powers-that-be to crush it. https://t.co/glYdmeTJ4g." / Twitter
70% of $BTC is mined in sanctioned countries, China, Iran, Russia. Crypto is in a race - add enough reputable agents of commerce to counter and overcome the inevitable coordinated actions of the ECB/BoJ/Fed/IMF/WorldBank-level powers-that-be to crush it.
Pete Earle writes:
He's saying that BTC needs to grow its network and become a more compelling medium of exchange in order to survive the likely outcome of the governments and monetary authorities in China and Russia (Iran?) putting severe criminal penalties on its mining and usage. Meh.
Does not follow that if mining were quashed in those countries other miners elsewhere wouldn't fill the gap, but it would be a bumpy ride and the price would almost definitely suffer. (There's also the remote chance that in the tumult that would follow miners going offline there could be a 51% attack.) But it strikes me that when an illicit enterprise becomes big enough (gambling, marijuana, etc.) governments would rather become privileged providers and gatekeepers than suppressors.
Jayson Pifer writes:
Burry seems to be missing that cheap electricity wins. It's not a matter of simply adding reputable agents when they will not be able to scale to compete with Chinese miners. Not to mention that those sanctioned countries are incentivized to mine heavily and therefore keep the security of the network high. I don't really see this changing.
I'm curious what sort of coordinated actions he supposes will be taken by the power-that-be. For the foreseeable future it appears to be concurrent debasement of currencies to the benefit of cryptos.
I forget who on the list was running a mining operation, the information shared was valuable. Perhaps we could get some recent insight.
Tweets-Feb/9/2021
"I would like to get up and tell you that this nightmare is over, but here I am," after the match, v " I'm already on the ground, you shoot me. I ask for a little mercy. It hurts me because I train like a madman and it doesn't work. When the guy is down, don't shoot him."
This is from Qael Monfils . but it represents what is the culture of how the ordinary man( the forgotten woman( responds to losses. anything else would create a backlash. by the way, watching Monfils play is a treat.
Amazing not a 20 day hi. missed it by 0.25.
Interesting paper from marginal revolution that leaves out the high positive correlation between beauty and intelligence vhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/j43okuoakvsm36h/Pretty2021Jan29.pdf?dl=0
youtube.com/watch?v=FDxfyX_ESuE… the good old boy wishes to stay young.
Tweets-Feb/11/2021
So far this month start out with a green ,then 4 yellows in a row. then green yellow green. Somehow SP gone up 8 days in a row.
You have to hand it to chance gardener. He's been consistently talking about how employment is a long way down from where it should be including before the election and yesterday.. so far I've seen no talk about replacing him.
https://foxnews.com/us/fort-worth-texas-vehicle-freeway-crash-fatalities-injuries… nobody asked me but all over we are getting reports of unusually cold climate conditions, never happened in fort worth" Nobody asked me but the horde of new investors opened by Robin Hood and their ilk is a boo for the infra structure as they will pay inordinate bid asked spreads and concentrate their volume near the highs, and give shrewd brokers a chance to margin them into oblivion.
Nobody asked me but the so by some measures has gone up 8 days in a row that's neutral but for sure it has gone up 8 two days in a row. that happened 8 times since 2011 . slightly neutral for the two day at the close of SP to be up it would have to close at 4pm est at 3909. I use the 415 as close.
Nobody aske me but in addition to foregoing notifying me of non-work things, readers should forego sending me things about global cooling as presumably the powers that be will punish all by taking away followed. I has lost most than 1000 followers in past 2 months.
Thank you as my venerable father used to say " I will be the healthiest person 6 feet under"
Bill was a great marital arts man practiced boxing every day, made more than 8000 arrests.( may have been a record) he would punch himself on head hard a nd then asked al the people I the bar whether they wished to go peacefully. And thus the selfish price end sup by 0.25 and stays within a 0.50 range from Monday close to Thursday close. I t induces many progeny to share it's price on the pod cast today i mistakenly said it was very bearish. However, it doesn't become very bearish until the 18th or 20th of this month. nothing now to stop the bull market. but near the end of February express according to the stats a tremendous decline.
Left out from your analysis is that market tell the story of inflation. almost all markets from grains to livestock to cattle to every stock market with the Nikei approaching 3000 and the us approaching 40000 are at all time high including crude at a 11 month high and up.
https://econlib.org/hume-hockey-sticks-and-the-great-forgetting/… article saying that inflation is danger without taking into account commodity prices.
I played a hard game of tennis doubles against George Schults and George Tigler. with Jim Lorie as my partner . they were both very fine gentleman and fine tennis players B+. they both were instrumental in my career as well. problem was that Jim had very bad eyesight and called a serve as Tigler's out which was clearly in. I dint want too correct Jim because it would have embarrassed him and both the George's vowed correctly never to play us again. I still regret my silence 60 years later.
Tweets-Feb/10/2021
Amazingly japan didn't. and euro apparently japan so busy with Olympics that overnight attendance at love hotels was distracting. e.g.. they weren't privy to inflation number in advance that isn't cricket. by the way what was inflation number are they still disregarding current level of every commodity price?
Old hearted man's favorite indicator the ratio of crypto to stock market valuation is decreasing age's favorite indicator see daily speculations com have you tested that?
dailyspeculations.com/Letter/songs%20of%20speculation.html… correction ratio of QNP value to SP valuation.
Better version https://youtube.com/results?search_query=stout+hearted+men+male+voice+choir
Tweets-Feb/8/2021
Tremendous abundance of green on screet, partridge. " its's a bull market"
Hope is father to the thought. There have been 17 occasions since 2011 where we had exactly 4 yellows in a row.. 3 days later the sp is up 70% of time slightly positive expect.
Something has to happen.. the range since the 6 pm open is only 10 points not enough for members to relieve the weak of chips from being undercapitalized.
The older we get' the better we were. I won the us nationals 10 times in a row ( counting the 5 times I didn't play because of faith base restrictions. what more could I have done.
Regrettably I was taught to slide the backhand .with a proper backhand I believe I would have been equal to or surpassed Sharif who is a fine gentleman unfortunate now afflicted with a stroke like me.
Tweets-Feb/6/2021
There is beauty in the fall of bottom feeders
Its only when you are physically or mentally superior that envy from others doesn't force you down to conform to current cultural values. Elon musk is a good example of a wilt chamberlin of business. comparisons to the founders of tech firms would be interesting.
Tweets-Feb/4/2021
Keys to the game: 1, can we reach the new constructal number of 3900 . 2, will the big rise that has occurred from 830 to 840 in past leaks of the number continue. 3, will the long bond hit the 166 handle thereby creating a temporary barrier around lunch time.
47 years, speaking fee of 800000, do not reduce it.
As old turkey told 5 times bankrupt j. livermore, " its a bull market" stop the ephemeral stuff and yet there should be some deception until 1 pm. The point of the pole picture is that despite the school closings , people are laughing and smiling and uxorious in Florida.
Earnings Versus Price
The above article contains 1000 fallacies it is a good exercise for any student wishing to understand equities to unravel this. More to the point how would you ascertain the correct relation between earnings and stock price in the aggregate and for individual companies.
Tweets-Feb/4/2021
Relentless rise to all time high with little duplicity today to shake some weak public out?
Hats off Mr. Sogi singing in Tokyo .reflected singing for Gaijn.
https://google.com/search?q=game+stop+stock+price&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS920US920&oq=game+&aqs=chrome.
0.69i59j69i57j69i59l2j35i39j69i60l3.3586j1j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8… what could be better for Infrastructure , Members, banks, Sp at all time high. renegades taught terrible lesson.
Tweets-Feb/3/2021
A shocking day with every market u p a little with little or no range and bonds refusing to hit the `at 167 handle which would be 3 month low as meeting with the great deceiver beckons.
The next time the Bpttp, feeders dare tp take on the infrastructures, there will be great hesitation. presumably that will be emphasized at the ageist meeting today.
https://m.timesofindia.com/city/mumbai/bees-halt-hungry-elephants-eyeing-crops-cut-human-animal-conflict/amp_articleshow/80609181.cms… the bees had their day against the infrastructure.
The only question is with a low range like firm from 3840 to 3825 over night, how do the members generate churng and vig. one thing for sure . it will be unusual.
The us mint is limiting purchases so that only selected dealers can buy it. what else is new. The drive to protect the publics from itself in all areas especially at the -da.
twitter.com/tylercowen/header_photo… anything by Tyler cowen is worth reading. here's one of his books that explains the reason that Nasdaq is up and value stocks bring up he rear.
Tweets-Feb/2/2021
Bonds in the 97 handle finally showing effect of unlimited crony spending.
For Our Naval List Members and Others
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
Drachinifel has just released a video essay with the charming and accurate title: "The Royal Canadian Navy - Sinking You, But Politely"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aa0ahtwzTI8
Leo Jia writes:
Strange also to me that the list stays in absolute silence for a few days once in a while lately.
Tweets-Jan/30/2021
Should be a very good week starting Monday in the wee hours.
It is chaos for the ephemeral time that some of the bottom feeders ( the public( make profits at the expense of the top feeders ( the big hedge funds and the members and the high frequency traders. this too shall pass.
Tweets-Jan/29/2021
Silly headlines going around. " ride is not over" 2. stocks fall below 3 month bull channel. 3 stock s fall below the open of Jan4. stocks fall as worries of a short squeeze resurfaced to army of amateur investors
Nasdaq at constructal levels of 13000 and 12900 playing turkey while Sogi dries off from surfing and relaxes with his Kona.
How about a strong Monday tomorrow and perhaps a reasonable close today
I know that most comments are well meaning. however, please under no circumstances communicate to me any messages or posts that are not woke as I lose all subscribers as the powers that be mistakenly conclude that I am not woke and should be canceled.
Places to Get Exquisite Video Programs
For the past few months, I enjoyed a few satellite channels out of Europe. Two outstanding are Arte and 3Sat, both public broadcasting with no commercials. Not sure how well-known they are outside of Europe - I had not seen them before. 3Sat is German and in German (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/3sat). Arte is a joint operation of Germany and France (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arte) and in both German and French. Both have excellent programs of nature, culture, art, science, history, music and fine films from across the world. For instance, 3Sat had a full day of operas on New Year's day. And what's best is they have subtitles for operas, so one gets understanding of the dramas. Last night, it had Monteverdi's opera L'orfeo with excellent performance. I had not much experience with music that early, composed some 70 years before Vivaldi's birth.
For outside of Europe, they both have apps on Android (not sure about Apple) providing past and even current programs. Arte app also allows English subtitles. Some programs are restricted to certain regions, but perhaps one can access them via VPN.
100 pt Swings
Getting to be a regular things recently.
Tweets-Jan/29/2021
Silly headlines going around. " ride is not over" 2. stocks fall below 3 month bull channel. 3 stock s fall below the open of Jan4. stocks fall as worries of a short squeez resurfaced to army of amateur investors.
Mr. Sogi stands drinking coffee solid as a stone wall.
Niches
Zubin Alwrites:
At a surf break, the waves tend to focus and break in a small area ideal for taking off in a surfboard. In a normal surf line up where the surfers wait for waves people crowd up, and informally queue up for their turn at the wave. However, 20% of the surfers usually get 80% of the waves. These are the top feeders.
I've learned how to foil surf on hydrofoils that fly above the water. The take off spot is in a different spot that where the board surfers drop in, and the high speed and efficiency of the foil allow riding in places where the board riders don't and can't ride. I can also ride breaks and wave conditions where board riders cannot and don't want to ride. After close to 60 years surfing, its opened up a whole new world of surfing for me. Due to the extreme difficulty learning to foil, and the very high expense of the equipment, there are only a handful of foil surfers around. We reap uncrowded waves and thrilling high speed rides flying above the water.
In the ecology of the market, there are many niches. Props to the GME traders who found a new niche. In the law of changing cycles,though, the top feeders and brokers move to protect their niche in the greater picture of the market.
The question is whether the de leveraging and higher margins and deposits for brokers in that niche will spread and affect the general market bringing it down a notch.
One theory I've had is that big waves correlate with high volatility. Its pure superstition. Under my theory, wive big waves down this weekend and with big waves possible Wednesday and Thursday market vol will be up midweek. This is pure mumbo, never tested and just for fun.
Jeff Watsurf writes:
I started foil surfing a few years ago, using a kite. A total game changer in my humble opinion.
Call A Sweep the Other Way.
Raymond Berry and John Unitas
“They used to talk in the huddle. Unitas would say, ‘Raymond, what do you have?’ Raymond would then give him a pattern and he’d also give him the blocking scheme so he’d have the best possible blocking and control. John would call the play and Raymond would get open and catch the ball.
“Then one year Unitas got hurt and Gary Cuozzo got hurt and (halfback) Tom Matte became our quarterback. Tom had taken only a few snaps since college but still had to run our offense.
“So he gets in the huddle and says, ‘Raymond, what do you have?’ Raymond thought for a moment and said, ‘Call a sweep the other way.’ ”
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-01-20-sp-31021-story.html
Wall Street Bets Banned
We can obtain free markets by trading US stocks on M0scow exchange, and trading Russian stocks on NYSE. Same way they are liberating social media.
Tweets-Jan/28/2021
A reader from Europe asks where can he buy Kona coffee and what is an acceptable price. coffee is one of the areas that i am ignorant of. but will a woke reader answer please.
Thanks for the readers answer on woke coffee. to be ignorant of your ignorance is the malady of the ignorant. i am ignorant of most things except for the defunct game of hard ball squash.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Chappell… it isn't crickets for the public to be making money at expense of the infrastructure. similar to the hunts when the exchange banned buying and then realized all gains on their previous losses thru the courts. hunt was good rackets player.
Tweets-Jan/27/2021
Stay close to your desks https://youtube.com/watch?v=IJRt2a45uqk… to be played at 2 pm.
https://idealist.org/en/nonprofit/a520022b52e543af8e24d9cacebc8631-camp-kinderland-brooklyn… how does one get a speaking engagement there.
Thank you for the Kona coffee below 3750.
youtube.com/watch?v=2ozLsqnLasw… Janet Yellen monitories situation in hot stocks.
Tweets-Jan/26/2021
https://wsj.com/articles/the-day-trading-barbarians-at-the-gate-wont-sack-wall-street-11611660505… it isn't cricket used to provide nutrients for infrastructure.
Public to provide food for those on higher trophic levels as bacon would say " the public has no rite to be ahead of the form especially when the trainers are betting against them the horse that were shipped from Florida to NY. are now getting accustomed to track.
https://sites.google.com/view/casinoreviews/blog/the-ideology-behind-online-casino-games… first and foremost rule " the House Must Win".
Its not cricket the public is winning , some top feeders are losing. . the Fed is part of the infrastructure. and they have to do something to stop the public from winning. expect them to beg forbearance from fellow colleagues at Treasury and House and to do something bear.
There must be a winning team in south of NY . action must be taken. high frequency trading must continue apace, so however, a temporary cessation of bullish profits for the public will be enough to extend reliance on agrarian ideas.
A very sagacious man tweets that a agrarian woman will be yelling. I disagree. one thing we can all agree on is that the be all and end all is for the trophic levels, the sharks to eat the bass —- to be upheld even if two days may lose some gamester support.
Don't expect any pointed posts from me tomorrow( i try to keep them innocuous as I lose a google of followers every time i stray from the Woke.) I have 5 health procedures scheduled for tomorrow culminating in the draining of my left leg which is bigger than Game Stop rise.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Bf4-SBA2Ed8…
The time to stop this infernal topsy turvy market where the bags are temporarily losing to the public. and the serial correlation that supports this in part. But remember old turkey partridges adman. ITs a bull market. after two days look for bull and yet. if it goes down too much before the announcement , a stern meeting at the camp Kinsella woodworking commune may be scheduled in order to varnish a few words.
Tweets-Jan/25/2021
A new niche with eg. soybeans from $9.00 to $13.00 in 4 months after staying below $8.000 for five years. , nas broke 135000 for new high today versus 7000 one year ago, and every stock market at new highs. what happens in a new niche , régime like this.
Does the population grow inregimesl like this?? or do the resources provide for the various species. is there competitive exclusion> these questions relate to the current niche
https://foxnews.com/health/fauci-backs-double-masking-in-coronavirus-fight-says-likely-more-effective… dr. cattle will not answer whether previous admin responsible for thousands of deaths
The coffee was very bigger and ephemeral and had to be taken very light. bonds seem to be exuberant based on the friendship of chance gardener and Miss Kinsella.
Tweets-Jan/22/2021
A duplicity to create havoc after yesterdays calm
Tweets-Jan/21/2021
Interview with Sogi, the importance of 50's and 100's, a maximum of woke-ity
https://youtube.com/watch?v=zZ6MWHrjYOg
It's not cricket, European range was so small (less than 10 points) that the public wasn't forced out of positions … yet
Sogi interview has important life lessons on surfing, coffee, and books. Sogi is a man for all seasons.. highly recommended.
Tweets-Jan/20/2021
Happy days all time highs in all stock markets except German. The less capitalistic we are the higher we go.
Jack Barnaby " the older we get the better we were" ( I had salaam 13-10 in the fifth game and then I fooled him with a reverse corner and he was so astounded he had to readjust his jock. etc.)
The Sennet victor podcast will interview Mr. Sogi at 530 pm et. today Jan 20. well all learn something and revive some soulful thought of a very good man.
Tweets-Jan/19/2021
Structural numbers beckon at 30000 Nikkei, 38000 sp. what else?
Today we discuss sports betting as well as differences between public and private infrastructure.
http://youtube.com/video/yFqRM_cOStM
Tweets-Jan/18/2021
What can we learn from football tactics based on where you are relative to midfield and how close you are to a fist down 10 pts and the red zone that will help us with market tactics?
One expects that I will break my record of losing followers on my post about football as I have lost of each of the last 15 posts there is nothing about the incumbent or woke in it I think.
For sure the level of analysis in sports betting e.g. vsin is much more sophisticated than anything used in market forecasting.
Learn
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
What can we learn and what insights do the football games and quan regularities has to teach us about markets. I often feel that the 50 years zone is transition to likely touchdown as is the 80 to 100 level the redone where it is likely to go to 100.
Eric Lindell writes:
I've found that general knowledge of shenanigans can be helpful. Consider deflategate, where Tom Brady/Patriots were accused of using deflated footballs.
Careful review of highlight reel shows intentionally missed passes by the Colts, which even the announcer noticed.
Deflated footballs were used as a minor cheating scandal to conceal a much more serious one. They were also used to create the illusion that the Colts were resisting Patriots' attempt to cheat.
It was partly because Brady and concomitant shenanigans moved to the Buccaneers that I predicted a good season for them. I still do.
Inverted Curves
Duncan Coker writes:
Amid all the melee of the last year it is easy to forget the yield curve inversion that occurred in May of 2019 presaging a recession in 2020. This indicator is 4/4 on calling recessions within 12 months including 2020, 2008, 2001 and 1991. Of course a lot of things can and do happen 12 months before a recession including pandemics, lock downs, credit crisis', bubbles, real estate and oil shocks. Bankers hate inverted curves because it makes renting money more difficult. Academics who pine for equilibrium also are chagrined by inverted curves. Soon we will have an academic at Treasury and a banker at the Fed and I doubt we will see an inverted curve again for a long while.
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
CD's use of "renting money" to describe banking is, for this 19th century mind, a wonderful highlighting of the fundamental discontinuity between my favorite century and the present one. People in the 19th century actually did rent money; loans were made in issues of actual currency - bank notes and coin. That helps explain the seeming paradox of permanently inverted interest rates curves - where call loan rates would always be higher than the yields on 30 and 50 year private and U.S. Treasury debt. Now that all debt payments are credit extensions (even payday lenders are "paid back" not in cash but in paper), are there any transactions that still have the moneyness that can be subject to panic?
That seems to me to be at the heart of CD's comment.
Arc Sine Law
50's gravitational effect in effect today, together with the tendency toward new highs to continue. Hard to believe but that is what creates the wall of worry bull markets climb.
Tweets-Jan/17/2021
Mr. Sogi do you like sushi with y our Kona coffee while watching the game with the ball pass the 50 year line of the adversary.
Mr Sogi you're close to your favorite red zone. may i suggest you go with your Japanese recent hires?
Tweets-Jan/15/2021
Now one ascertains why it was down overnight
Tweets-Jan/14/2021
Allis Halcyon on the round front.
Tweets-Jan/13/2021
The purpose of markets, the lessons from the palindromes break of the bank on the British pounds, the secret of gaining traction for your position and a general reprieve of the market that's more informative than any other.
https://investopedia.com/articles/forex/08/greatest-currency-trades.asp… on the contrary the worst currency trade ever see the pod cast.
youtu.be/5L47Kh5DHGM holding fire, bonds resist inflation, constructal numbers everywhere , Nikkei 30000.
Tweets-Jan/12/2021
Its not cricket the range so far has only been 20 points. that's not enough to create normal vig and profits for infrastructure by forcing out the undercapitalized public thru moves they cant accommodate due to deplorable capital.
What is the game where the pitcher didn't allow the batters a clear shot by ruling it to the batter.
What the weather like at Duke professor and how are my daughter and his husband Chris doing at their schools. are their taking advantage of the constructs in their studies and life? how does it relate to medical and law schools as well as markets?"
A change in guard after 5 consecutive days down. could it temporaries halt like damn the constructal number in Sp.
Amazing that five down days inbounds didn't break the Sp relentless rise to new high. but a 1 day rise in bonds insufficient to send tocks up by almost a %
Would everybody kindly refrain from sending me non-woke material of any kid to this account as I have lost 10% of my followers in the past 2 weeks presumably do to algorithms to prevent non-woke.
The big catholic schools would pay bklyn college football team a huge amount to come to their home. so they could demolish the boys from BKLYN. the average score against bklyn was 72-3 . a touch back didn't count as a negative points so their score was positive like my followers.
The Mathematics of Winning Monopoly
Motivated me to look up the UK Monopoly board:
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ae/cf/f5/aecff5f058348b20be3a41d3bc306800.jpg
learn
Because humans have 5 fingers, and are trained in decimal base ten counting, they tend to think in 10/5 boxes, like a football field, like a 100 point trading range, with rounds being the edges of a box.
Delayed vs Instant Gratification
Jeffrey Watson writes:
I wonder if specs as children would eat the marshmallow now or wait the 15 minutes and get another one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_jakAtI0Zo
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
The fraud in social science is that its practitioners almost always end up being Platonists. Instead of doing what Darwin and others did - collecting data in massive quantities and then using mathematics to find the probabilities, they define an idea - delayed gratification - and then work at finding the evidence that proves that the idea exists. The law - the worst of all modern social sciences - does this automatically. If you repeated the marshmallow experiment a hundred times, you would get the beginnings of understanding. You might discover that the issue with the child who does not wait on the first trial is trust of strangers, that, after seeing that waiting does get you a second one, he is happy to wait as long as required. If you change the reward structure so it is competitive - the one who waits longer gets 2, you would see yet another result. The length of the finches' beaks is a statistical response to reality, not a measure of any particular bird's desire for instant or delayed gratification.
To answer Watsurf's question, for marshmallows I could wait forever - hate the things and always have. For black licorice, I would have stolen the other kids before he had a chance to think.
Anna K writes:
Stefan, very good points about all the issues with the test, but do you really think that “delayed vs instant gratification” doesn’t exist or doesn’t matter?
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
To give AK's questions a binary answer, No and No. Delayed gratification is another categorical description that pretends human beings have innate behavioral qualities that can be quantitied, will be stable over time, and have predictive value. But, the only measure that more than a century of experimental data has shown to have a correlation with future behavior is the one that makes no effort to dissect people's minds but takes them completely as a whole - IQ. And that, of course, is the very measure that has become illegal because it can foretell what individuals can and will do.
Penny Brown writes:
Towards that end, De Blasio has decided to end testing to determine which students receive a place in schools for the gifted and talented.
No one is allowed to be superior in his world. He has foster the dumbing down of education because having superior achievers is not equal.
Henceforth admission to the schools for gifted students will just be determined by a lottery.
Berkson’s Paradox
Big AI writes:
Does Hollywood ruin books?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUD8h9JpEVQ
Scott Brooks writes:
That was a very interesting post, Big!
Bayes
This guy, "3 Blue 1 Brown", does really nice vids:
Bayes Theorem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZGCoVF3YvM
And non-stat:
Visualizing the Riemann zeta function and analytic continuation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sD0NjbwqlYw
Tweets-Jan/8/2021
I had an insight from a dream last nite.the secret is to buy when the news is bad. do the opposite of what it seems like you should do from a psychology of spec book of http://1900.buy when the public is most negative concerning the prospects.
Nasdaq breached another constructional number at 13000. bitcoin on way to Sogi coffee number at 44400.. Nikkei must reach 30000 now at 28400.
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2021/01/08 https://youtu.be/3DVMDAisu-E via@YouTube
Tweets-Jan/11/2021
A round number is never a penumbra.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military%E2%80%93industrial_complex replaced by congressional tcho-loy complex.
Little john, Frier tuck, special purpose vehicles Harvard invite to buy venture capital thru them, a plenitude of yellow.
Tweets-Jan/10/2021
" Its a bull market " partridge.
The Man Who Invented More Than 800 Iconic Toys
Richard Owen writes:
Eddy Goldfarb, who is ninety-eight, created such classics as the
bubble gun, chattering teeth, and Kerplunk! Here’s how he did it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sKKan_Q9VU
Well I was always optimistic.
I always believed things are gonna turn out okay.
I annoy people with my optimism.
People who, why don't you face reality and stuff?
Well, I think I'm right.
I think being optimistic helps me a lot.
Before going to sleep the night before
I usually go over the events of the day
and review the problems encountered in my work.
During the night, everything becomes much clearer,
and even some of yesterday's problems are solved.
I sometimes think that I got a little help
from family and friends that are no longer with us.
Rain or snow, cloudy or sunny,
it's a new, wonderful opportunity that we are given.
It's going to be a big day.
Laurence Glazier writes:
Such an inspiring film, thank you.
The story quoted was, I think, meant to be exactly 100 words. A game in the spirit of Oulipo,
The final three lines I am guessing summarise, like the closing couplet of a sonnet.
Heard on The Street
Zubin Al writes:
Recently at a restaurant at lunch, two blue collar guys, one older, one
younger guy with a beard, both in electricians uniforms sit down and I
overhear the young guy explaining to the older guy about buying stocks,
and how if they double how much money he can make. He says he doesn't
care how much it goes down, and that he will hold on. The conversation
moves to Bitcoin, and the younger guy doesn't quite understand how it
works but that it keeps going up. To myself I'm thinking, "hmmm". I
remember in late 1999 walking into the broker's office where I see a
young woman who I remember waiting tables there buying stocks. I recall
taxi drivers during that same period talking stocks as conversation in
the cabs.
I wonder, is it different this time?
Dr Gangineni Dhananjhay writes:
I have also got a similar experience in India. Near the brokerage
company where I regularly go to trade, I visit a Coffee stall. The
person running the coffee shop started giving stock advice. Which stocks
to buy and sell and general market opinion. I got afraid. Of course
this is an anecdotal evidence. I am seeing more of my relatives and
family members giving me stock advice. Time to be cautious ??
*Jack Cook* writes:
For me, the Spring of 2001 'Aha Mr. Livermore, this is the top? My
Masseuse was working on my lats and telling tales of retiring on all the
Cisco stock he had.
He is still my Masseuse.
Best in 2021
Heather
TikTok and Discord Are the New Wall Street Trading DesksCaitlin McCabe, Gunjan Banerji and Mischa Frankl-Duval-WSJ. A
new army of social media-enabled day traders is helping push stocks to
records and turning companies into market sensations. As trading by
individual investors boomed during the coronavirus pandemic, so has the
popularity of online communities where they gather. Platforms including
TikTok, Twitter, YouTube, Reddit, Instagram, Facebook and messaging
platform Discord have become the new Wall Street trading desks.
Individual investors gather to talk about hot stocks like Tesla Inc.,
boast of gains and commiserate about losses. These investors do more
than just talk, though. They piggyback on each others' ideas and trades,
helping fuel the momentum that has propelled some companies to
triple-digit or bigger gains in 2020.on.wsj.com/3bxmPHI
Galton on Politics
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
Why a slight switch in sentiment can cause a landslide of change. I'll
get the exact quote somewhat later but this is good concerning the
tendency of oxen and human to have a preference for slavery
Penny Brown writes:
A quote from Maxim du Camp - friend of Flaubert: "Revolution is always
the same: initiated by simpletons, helped along by fools, pushed through
by rogues and then taken over by the opportunists who do quite well."
Electioral Accounting
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
How many things can you think of that were not cricket in the recent election https://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/cricket/2018/03/28/underarm-bowling-incident/
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
In terms of electoral accounting, this was a particularly nasty
election; but it was hardly exceptional. Compared to what happened in
New York in 1884, the cheating by the Democrats in Pennsylvania in 2020
barely rises above the level of "if you ain't cheating, you ain't competing" which has been the standard ever since the qualifications for
voting stopped including property ownership (the 1820s).
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
Herb London used to say that 1/2 million votes were always relieved in NYC election for governors. its was a hard takes for him 50% of the
electorate worked for noon- service paying orgs like the un or the city
and state govs. Add in the 500000 votes and he was behind 60% of
votes before the Staten Island politician could eviscerate hims
further. but what i was referring to was the " not cricket :" like the
delay in the big pharma announcement and the stimulus bill and the Dr.
cattle propaganda and the suppression of news about the son.
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
Yes. There is nothing in that 19th century election - even the
propaganda against Blaine for being "anti-Catholic" - that comes close
to what we have lived through in the age of democracy not dying in
darkness.
Tweets-Jan/7/2021
My picture of the chairs office without room for a private hairdresser was in bad taste as i came during the protests i apologize, what I said about g and s having more freedom to ridicule the unified gov than we have was true but it was inappropriate at moment.
During the march of the peers in Iolanthe G and S HAD Them costume and masked as infamous peers of the day. i performed in the show 60 years ago directed by Nancy Lorie, Jim's first wife who every year directed a different G and S show as a fund raiser for the Lab school. Imagine a performance today with some peers dressed as persons of color, others in orange,, and a personage of age with her hair in curlers.
Quant points out that last night. I was bearish because of increase service rates spending and progressive control of capital and the dire prospects for R's in future. I was wrong,after being bull for 1000 pts first rise today before playing it for the contractual 3800.
I am very fallible especially when I relate market to qualitative things and when I give up buy and hold.
Stocks at an all-time high, bonds at a 7 month low. NASDAQ at an all-time high near a constructal number of 13,000. Stick to buy-and-hold and don't be swayed by qualitative bad news.
Tweets-Jan/5/2021
You can't give a beaten dog a break. All the news that the incumbent cased for just 11000 votes is a terrible bowdlerizing of what the conference calls was. the incumbent presented 8 strands of falsity in the tallys including one by a notorious ballot stuffer. And he said that given he claims and will document hundreds of thousands of votes taken away from him or falsely given to the challenger. ,, all he need sis 11000 votes; the conference call was secretly recorded by the republicans on the voting committee in Georgia. why?
Your own man. on the Spe list we have had any discussions of the street game where there is a dispute about a call and the other side points out that "your own man " said you were out. Secretary Raffenberger and the other repubs are perfect example of that.. they are obviously trying their hardest to sink the incumbent whole claiming that the voted for r's etc. and that they recounted twice. The leaked tape t o embarrass the incumbent and the 25 calls he made unrequited is another indicia. the dee p state and the swamp are contagious not only is 95% against the r's because they among other things they are paid by increasing government but they are hauling out every technique form street games and other games of duplicate to make it seems that they are non-partisan crude joins t he fray at construal number and inflationary signal that academic research will be hauled out to show it don't matter with everything else at high also change in form and tempo and wokity Tech will not have as clear sailing to use their big horns to out compete non-tech business. should be reversal of form for value stocks another change in form in favor of big horns.
Wsj editorial reply
(Edited)
Actually the disaster is going to occur if the Democrats: stack the Supreme Court, continue to support the black victimization industry, bail out the free-spending and almost bankrupt Democratic states of Connecticut, New Jersey, and Illinois.
Wsj editorial response continued
Cancel student debt, bring in Medicare for all having already trashed a good part of the private health insurance market with Obamacare, re-enter Iran nuclear deal, keep cozying up to Cuba, continue bleeding the military budget to pay for domestic.
editorial continued
Defund the police, excuse self important intelligentsia that all white people are racist, continue to block charter schools, be hostage to teachers unions, consolidate more power in wash" Why the market is down 35 since D'S won Georgia.
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2021/01/05 https://youtu.be/S1d6WcCOeMk via @YouTube
Nie discussion of trend following unindividual stocks, the three greatest investors, bitcoin as sponge for woke and inflation, what really happened in conf call, inflation galore, big horn sheep as big tech, "your own man" et al in Jan 5 sonnet Vic podcast. Yes the great genius chess champion often played chess at w.4th street beach while I played paddles a block away, unfortunately the water didn't transmit his genius to me, but I had seven wonderful kids more than he amazing that at of 11 30 pm from 6pm,est the Sp futures have swung above and below the construal number of 3700 8 times— doing it again as I write-
Tweets-Jan/4/2021
There was some talk responsive to what regularities are in play now that the first day of year was down more than ever before. with I think a facetious shout out to me, i.e. " he has every regularity quantified" if only that were true and more to point if only the regularities weren't subject to Bacon's law, i.e.. Irhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2021/01/04.
You can't keep a good man down. After the biggest sell-off to start any year (150 pts), the market ended only 1.5% off the all-time high. Everything depends upon the Georgia election tomorrow.
Tweets-Jan/3/2021
With topsy turvy and woke and margin debt at all time high and the small investors marking money in options spec purp vehicles and momentum, and Georgia in play for d's, I revisit the likelihoods and note after big highs near the last trading day of year, not so hot.
Please tell me how with every market at a high, the inflation are going to be very worrisomely high the next few //ac=announcements or are we still going with all the crazy academic research that says that markets don't matter and are just temporary blips.
We start with a drink of Kona coffee from Mr. Sogi as the market plays footsie with his favorite coffee level of 3750.
Perfect Example
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
Of our favorite technique from street games " your own ma" the r's in Georgia loudly proclaim that they voted r's but at the same time they are obviously string their hardest to sink the incumbent. How can you fight the system when everyone is against you and they are hauling out every technique to make you look bad. Who is this notorious ballot stuffer that the Georgia elected official had in a prominent position. And which the incumbent said was alone in the office with the suitcase of 100% voted or d's. the conference call claimed 7 or 7 deferent kinds of abuse and it was taken out of context by all media to say that the incumbent want just 11000 votes. I often was visited with a biased referee in squash who was against me because I was not from Merior or the prep schools or because I was Jewish. Osborne tried to help me. and I still remember how the finals of the championship was stolen from me when the referee called a ball down on me which he had never done. In other words, play was going on and there was no appeal but he shout out down. It doesn't seem important in retrospect but it prevent me from winning the world championship when I was 18 years old. the incumbent has to fight 4 millions against him and the forces against him are contagious to make matters worse.
Zubin Al writes:
Indeed, it’s the coordinated powers of the world against one man (a man in the most powerful position in the world). Trump has been an existential threat to China’s path to economic superpower status, an existential threat to the Climate Action 100+ coordination/cooperation, and an existential threat to the swamp. To what extent would they go to remove him? It seems we are seeing it. “Whatever it takes.” Tomorrow and the days ahead may be total chaos.
Tweets-Jan/2/2021
https://youtu.be/3VniS6ObNNE
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/30
Predictions for the end of the year! Harvard leads from behind, a forerunner of venture capital crash.
Tweets-Jan/1/2021
There is something poetic, inevitable, fateful, and nonstructural about the year end closing prices for markets. Every market closed at a absolute high. the grains, the softs, the meats, the European stocks, the Japanese, the SP and the Nasdaq. just the bonds at 17300 in middle the of last day of year was in a sense recap of the whole year. the SP was down 1/2 % at 4:am but then went up 1% to a new high at the close. and all this happened with wokenss at a high. The betting odds now favor the d's to win in Georgia and control everything. The Fang controlled 40% of the increase in wealth of the SP in line with Pareto's law. The Pres was at the height of popularity and the nadir. What can we see excet that the Markets loves socialism. the cancel culture of the university and the media and the education system, the contagion of living in the swamp, with 95% in favor of the deep state has reached a climax of wokenss and wealth for all the progenitors. those who saw a disastrous drop in business and a terrible precedent for individuality and capitalism led from behind. Its a topsy turvy world.
what will be have for next year. a big rise in December has been quite bull until end of Fed according to seasonal. with everything else topsy turvy we dare not predict beyond the technical.
I could add to the all time highs as readers have pointed out, the European and Japanese currencies and the real estate in non-coastal cities. perhaps the bell weather was bitcoin the new signaler of inflation and wokenss to come closing at 29400 and dragging old fashioness conservative gold to a 1 month high of 1900.
An excellent study of trend following in individual stocks https://cis.upenn.edu/~mkearns/finread/trend.pdf… from 2005. anyone have an update?
I see that my former tennis partner noble winner has study that value stocks out perform growth stocks . I've found that nothing he reports is valid and would guess that growth stocks on a going forward basis will continue to outperf as Nas outperformed SP by 22% this year.
Tweets-Dec/30/2020
A sensible comment to a WSJ editorial of Holman Jenkins I bet there are more people suffering from anxiety and depression than there are people who died from the virus. All those small businesses that have closed. The isolation and disruption to your every day routines.
Incumbent continues to do his best to reduce chances.
Bilious headline " us stocks drop after hope fades for expanded aid"
Private Jet Indicator
Zubin Al writes:
Each year I like to count the number of private jets parked during the holidays at the local FBO. Many of the worlds richest people have homes here such as Bill Gates, Roberts of KKR, Charles Schwab, The Go Daddy guy, Dave Roux of Silverlake Partners… and they all have private jets. The theory is that the rich know what's going on with the economy and is a tell for the future.
There are notably fewer jets this year. I counted 18 on Christmas and will update later today on my way to foil big waves at the beach past the airport. Usually the lot overflows to park jets on Maui and Oahu with 40 or more.
My take (and in theory the captain's of industry take) is that this thing is not going to be over this next year, and will drag on.
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
Mr. Sogi I have had numerous requests to interrupt you on my blog. when and would you be a good time for that?
Zubin Al writes:
Usually around 1 pm Hawaii Time, maybe next week would be fine. I just ask that you don't put me on the "spot" as you normally do when you ask me questions. Pitch me some lobs for easy answers so I can avoid sounding too bad.
Tweets-Dec/29/2020
An abundance of yellow and abundance of all time highs for SP.
The woke that keeps on giving. about 50 times for at least 400 big points. whenever stimulus hopes are reduced the market plummet because not immediate gratification. Its always just a matter of time until d's ,male.
D's male a money out of r's and gain the week prize by augmenting the stimulus and making r's looks like scrooge until the r's reluctantly split the difference at first and then capitulate entirely to d's there by sanctifying that collectivism is all powerful, gov all
Powerful and wise and the individual doesn't know how to handle choice and capital at all.
Main contagion is the spread of woke among all the swamp and those who live there. r's are infected –afraid to rock the boat- upset their friends. r's keep succumbing to absurd biased views of dr. cattle. Supremes afraid of riots so don't wish to rocker's afraid of media.
Is they cover the son of the big guy and if as said they demean themselves by letting public have choice and business except on the coasts continue without draconian restrictions. phil kerpen has proper statistics on these matters.
Todays blog would have had prediction of seasonality in gold, review of NY posts tips for buying dogs and going with the sharps near the game and playing the under. all with direct correspondence to trading . also beautiful discussion of descent with modification form Princeton.
Guide to evolution and detailed discussion of Harvard trying to encourage aluminic to buy 10 venture capital pools they make up. Sure symptom of swan song of venture capital as Harvard has worst investment record of all by eschewing buying index funds and paying exorbitant.
One absurdity of Harvard fees to their employees is that they don't take into account the cost of raising capital. a normal hedge fund pays 10% fo the marketing manager who raises their money. Harvard is able to pull the wool over all the naïve profs by paying many employees.
20 times what the highest professor received. H points out that their adviser beat their bogey by x% and therefore made the endowment 20 million more than if had just bought an etf. you'd think that some prof would have the sense to point out the 100 flaws in this reasoning.
One wishes he had a fund of 50 billion under management and was paid inventive on how much a sector beats the bogey ( without regard to the misses) without regard to the funds the appeared from Heaven.
The Good one can only guess on how many fees are embedded in the 10 venture capital funds they offer to their naïve alumni . on the inside cover an ad for these funds of h magazine. you wouldn't believe things like this unless it was clear on the front cover.
Of course the below about H is just my opinion . however I would speculate that any errors I have made that paint a darker picture are counterbalanced many fold by darker items I have left out.
All attorneys should receive a course in the statistics with particular reference to what is the p probability of recording a sample of 10000 + where the percentage on one side is say 90% and another sample has a % on one side of (say 60% a knowledge of the binomial theorem and an ability to run rudimentary simulations is a good starter. the standard error of the outcome of observed from a sample of 10000 with p of 1/2 is 50 … If you observe say 5500 heads rather than the expected 5000 the chances of this occurring by chance is approx. 1 in billion.
Tweets-Dec/28/2020
Victor Hansen predicts that the progressives are holding their fire until after the Georgia elections and then they will
Lower the bam and reveal some of the dark things that the big guy enfolds and this would be bearish for the market I think in the second week of Jan.
Tweets-Dec/27/2020
Wiswell proverbs for board games , life, and markets inspired by Mr. Srivatsan. 1 " if you see a good move(trade) don't market it look for a better one: if you see a better move, don't make it. look for the best. 2.I know one player, player who does not smoke, cigars, cigarettes or a pipe. Dr. Marion Tinsley and his game is much better for it( he is generally considered the best checker player of all time. 3.Winning a loss. " a win is a win is a win". 4.Some are destroyed by defeat and some are made small by victory. Greatness lies on one who triumphs equally over defeat and victory (is) 5.Houdinie once said that checkers was the only riddle he could not solve.6 the real secret of patience is to continue thinking while its your opponents move not just when it's your move, your game is often less strong in the ending than it appeared in the opening. the truth of the matter is that it was lost in the middle.7. If you strike strike at a king. you must kill him, half measures will not work. 8. Some players set traps in the opening that in the end lead to their defeat. 9. It is always wise to remember that your opponent may be just as scheming as you. 10. Protect your own double corner, and use your use your single corner to attach your opponents double corner. remember a player with a strong double corner is double hard to corner. 11. a million years ago: the good old days. so many moves , so many variations, so many friends( now Wiswell and I will put on our hats and study some more)
The Man Who Invented More Than 800 Iconic Toys
Eddy Goldfarb, who is ninety-eight, created such classics as the bubble gun, chattering teeth, and Kerplunk! Here’s how he did it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sKKan_Q9VU
Well I was always optimistic.
I always believed things are gonna turn out okay.
I annoy people with my optimism.
People who, why don't you face reality and stuff?
Well, I think I'm right.
I think being optimistic helps me a lot.
Before going to sleep the night before
I usually go over the events of the day
and review the problems encountered in my work.
During the night, everything becomes much clearer,
and even some of yesterday's problems are solved.
I sometimes think that I got a little help
from family and friends that are no longer with us.
Rain or snow, cloudy or sunny,
it's a new, wonderful opportunity that we are given.
It's going to be a big day.
Tweets-Dec/24/2020
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/24
Discussion of season market moves, P/E ratios, and Georgia senate race today.
Tweets-Dec/23/2020
Market on 12 -22 gave typical example of how courage trumps everything with lessons from woke-stock market interaction and how not to do a study with infinite multiple classification
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/22 https://youtu.be/FgrD3rnapQQ via @YouTube. Here is video that captures courage and multiple classifications and woke
Tune in today's video for tribute to James Lorie the Mendeleyev, of stock market data, i.e. the builder of the stock market periodic table, and the key builder of the Chicago style of bus .education. also, a second father to me. also the incredible silliness of a 5o point decline
Pulled a rabbit out of http://hat.at close very exciting day. many general principles meals for a life time to learn. Perhaps subscribe to my YouTube channel :
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC85UPcd0vziV3C8ShkRvfCA
The market loves to swoon anything incumbent. last week is good example. last two days it had 5 panics when non-woke things flit thru tair. we covered some of them in video. the threat worse than execution et al. most important tribute to a great man my squash partner James Lorie.
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/23 https://youtu.be/pEARZITKJoQ via@YouTube
Tweets-Dec/22/2020
nooo better proof of the topsy turvy nature of the market is the sp 35 pt sellloff on the news that t he incumbent is pressuring the progressives to give more aid to the american rather tahan the foreigners. wself sacrifice is the calario calll of the progressives
but what is the likely outcome . either the incumbent willl get his way and the amercns would get more or he will not and the old billl will go thru.. now if he was threatening to cancel the Kennedy center 100 million or the smithsonian that would be a disaster for progsvs
The Beauty of French Thinking
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
Somewhere in digital maw is an earlier email of mine to the List with a copy of the wonderful cartoon that appeared recently in France. It has the 3 wise men visiting Joseph, Mary, and the baby Jesus and the animals in the manger. Each wise man is carrying a syringe. The caption reads (apologies for my hopelessly bad non-existent French): "We'll try it first on the donkey and then see what happens." The expression on the donkey's face is priceless.
As a perfect antidote to the varieties of idiocy out there, I recommend Brigitte Engerer's extraordinary performance of Chopin's Nocturnes. She was perfection and someone who knew herself.
"I need the transparency of the French piano — and, more important, the rationality of French philosophy. But I needed some of the Russian craziness in my playing. I still do."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigitte_Engerer
Adam Grimes writes:
I've always loved her interpretation of the Nocturnes. If memory serves, she had a very impressive recording of the Mussorgsky Pictures, too.
If you want to explore some more esoteric Chopin, see if you can find the Mazurkas as recorded by Andrzej Wasowski. If you know these pieces, you'll find his ideas challenging, to put it kindly… but there's a very good chance he's on the right track. (Basically, the beats tend to be unequal, leaning toward the uneven meters we find later in Bartok and others… it certainly makes sense that a Polish folk dance might have had (should probably read "very likely did have") some of the same characteristics that we associate with Romanian and Bulgarian folk music.)
I'm not sure if you can find his recordings on YouTube, but it's worth tracking down a CD if you have to.
Tweets-Dec/21/2020
Betting odds on r' winning in Georgia improve to 70 to 30 European markets down much. gold takes tour of court. Sogi standing solid
A roller coaster today with Sogi standing solid as a stone wall and an infinity of woke news a la Dalton's request that we all have equality by prostration and Bill Barr dealing a final coup de grace to his boss
Discussion of Covid
Jay Bhattacharya on the Pandemic
https://www.econtalk.org/jay-bhattacharya-on-the-pandemic/
Economist and physician Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University talks about the pandemic with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Bhattacharya, along with Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford and Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University, authored The Great Barrington Declaration, which advocates a very different approach to fighting the pandemic than current policy and practice. Bhattacharya and his colleagues argue the best way to reduce overall harm is to focus protection efforts on those most at risk, while allowing low-risk populations to return to a more normal way of life. Bhattacharya argues that we have greatly neglected the costs of lockdown and self-quarantine.
Tweets-Dec/18/2020
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/18
https://youtu.be/PJHkip0PN2w Fri Dec. 18 video gives advice on day trading, courage, and cane trading sparked by one of the biggest positive closes 30 pts in history
Dec 18 video I gave several tips for day trading. I would add two 1. never let a anyone know what your position is. 2. never admit to taking a profit.. 3. more controversial and trumps the other. 4. never day trade at all.
Tweets-Dec/17/2020
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/15 https://youtu.be/SZHshj_WwvE
Today's video covered some amazing, useful points. First, the incredible consilience of all the markets being at new highs including grains and all equity markets. (1 of 2)
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/15 https://youtu.be/SZHshj_WwvE What does this mean for inflation, and the ignoramuses at the BLS. We had an extremely interesting interview with Andy Aiken about all things crypto, the problems and cover-ups in the vaccine story. (2 of 2)
Freemasons and Liberty
Today is the anniversary of the death of Gabriel Narutowicz.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel_Narutowicz
Tweets-Dec/16/2020
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/16 https://youtu.be/fwGlIqh7AsI with all ballyhoo, the market managed to close at an all time hi at 3694 basis march price changes were subdued. from 330 am to the close at 430 pm the total range was 7 pts from 3701 to 3690
Expect a wild day tomorrow Thursday
Tweets-Dec/15/2020
Some thing not cricket. vaccine news couldn't be all pacific. chance gardener tomorrow may not try to sink existing
The infra structure enacts another fee from the public.. yet another reason not to day trade
Mr. bell could run into a room and bet a light turning on from a lite switch or high frequency trade
Yet another reason in addition to the 5 others stacked against him previously that the incumbent lost The vaccine could have been rolled out in the summer, well before the current, predictable seasonal spike. Would have saved 150,000 lives. But solving the problem would
Solving the problem would also have re-elected President Trump, and there was no way the swamp would risk that. Heck, the left aborts that many children every month… from the WSJ editorial page
The vaccine could have been rolled out in the summer, well before the current, predictable seasonal spike. Would have saved 150,000 lives. But solving the problem would also have re-elected President Trump, ,there was no way the swamp would risk that. (from another WSJ comment
Apparently the results of the trials are rolled out to the FDA real time several weeks in advance of the announcement and big pharma at the top 9s uniformly woke as is the 95% at the FDA who vote woke.
Tweets-Dec/14/2020
It's a great day for the ""progressives" and bonds finally down 1 fall pt and gold down 14 $ .odds of senate staying r has fallen to 70% versus 80% a week ago. market loves that incumbent near 0 chance. if gains service 'rate raised to 100% the market would rise.
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/14 https://youtu.be/ERhKbIlwKfo via
@YouTube
what duplicity will the market infrastructure have in store http://today. How will Mr.. Sogi interact with the fomc . here is a take.
Tweets-Dec/13/2020
What joy for the pessimists. Market down 3 days in row. but Sp, Dax, Nikkei, within 0.5 % of all time high
Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web https://youtu.be/CteSgDyQgrY via@YouTube. The market is mysterious, unfathomable and all encompassing.. What evil lies in it is infrastructure. Daily market web takes a crack.
Tweets-Dec/12/2020
Niederhoffer Sennett Market Daily Web #`1 https://youtu.be/kkUnTTfKt8Q via @YouTube start of new
Tweets-Dec/11/2020
A madness involving a drop below year low, kraken, 3rd down day in a row, baseless unhinged claims, suppression of news of family profits,. what else is new?
Brexit breaks up for 52 nd time
Stimulus deal breakdown, its because of intransigence one ?side? if they ever pass it, one will predict a rout
There stands Mr. Sogi , balanced among big waves, solid as a stone wall on land
Ontogeny revaluate phylogeny all in one day today
The market was quite an adventure today even though it ended unchanged. the swings in one typical day today amounted to as much as the average rise in the index for a year.. here's a take on it. Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web https://youtu.be/CteSgDyQgrY via @YouTube
Historical Humanitarian lagniappe
Big Al writes:
In April 1945, Gollancz addressed the issue of German collective guilt in a pamphlet, What Buchenwald Really Means that explained that all Germans were not guilty. He maintained that hundreds of thousands of gentiles had been persecuted by the Nazis and many more had been terrorized into silence. Equally, UK citizens who had done nothing to save the Jews despite living in a democracy, were not free of guilt. This marked a shift of Gollancz's attention towards the people of Germany. In September 1945, he started an organisation Save Europe Now (SEN) to campaign for the support of Germans,[17] and over the next four years he wrote another eight pamphlets and books addressing the issue and visited the country several times.
Gollancz's campaign for the humane treatment of German civilians involved efforts to persuade the British government to end the ban on sending provisions to Germany and ask that it pursue a policy of reconciliation, as well as organising an airlift to provide Germany and other war-torn European countries with provisions and books. He wrote regular critical articles for, and letters to, British newspapers, and after a visit to the British Zone of Occupation in October and November 1946, he published these along with shocking close-up photos of malnourished children he took there in In Darkest Germany [18] in January 1947.
On the expulsion of Germans after World War II he said: "So far as the conscience of humanity should ever again become sensitive, will this expulsion be an undying disgrace for all those who remember it, who caused it or who put up with it. The Germans have been driven out, but not simply with an imperfection of excessive consideration, but with the highest imaginable degree of brutality." In his book, Our Threatened Values (London, 1946), Gollancz described the conditions Sudeten German prisoners faced in a Czech concentration camp: "They live crammed together in shacks without consideration for gender and age … They ranged in age from 4 to 80. Everyone looked emaciated … the most shocking sights were the babies … nearby stood another mother with a shrivelled bundle of skin and bones in her arms … Two old women lay as if dead on two cots. Only upon closer inspection, did one discover that they were still lightly breathing. They were, like those babies, nearly dead from hunger …" When Field Marshal Montgomery wanted to allot each German citizen a guaranteed diet of only 1,000 calories a day and justified this by referring to the fact that the prisoners of the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp had received only 800, Gollancz wrote about starvation in Germany, pointing out that many prisoners never even received 1,000 calories. "There is really only one method of re-educating people," explained Gollancz, "namely the example that one lives oneself."
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
The folly of revenge is its unshakeable belief that time's arrow can somehow be reversed, that wrong can be undone by doing it to "them".
Food Item
Bill Rafter writes:
I was recently introduced to RICE GRITS, which are broken rice kernels. Due to the increased cooking surface, these gems turn smooth and creamy quite easily. I have had my starter pack three Days and have used them three times; once for breakfast, once as an understory for a sautéed scallop dish and once for rice pudding. Absolutely delicious. Their micronutrition content is very close to Irish oatmeal, and they are a nice morning change.
I received my grits from https://www.deltabluesrice.com a multi-generation family farm in Mississippi. Their website has lots of recipes.
Most recipes for rice grits call for frequent stirring of the pot. Fine if you have the time, but I’m too busy. My variation is using a crockpot. Although that means no stirring, you are left with some burn spots at the bottom of the crock. They come off with soaking in dish detergent letting chemistry do the work for you.
My crockpot version goes like this: Put a pat of butter in the bottom of the crock, and then add 4-to-1 units of water (preferably spring) to grits. Set the crockpot on low and return in 4 hours. Add cream if you want the ultimate luxury. Note that with a timer you can run the process overnight and have them for breakfast.
Ken Sadofsky writes:
https://preview.tinyurl.com/yy7dkdp9
From the women: oatmeal, eggs n a fruit or sugar. For world athletes, I get carbs n protein from eggs but oatmeal has lil protein. The Scottish have a sayin though about their men, oats n steeds (escapes me)
A Japanese Zojirushi rice cooker has fuzzy logic and requires no stirring for whole grain oats, groat oats, I believe. Perhaps counter-intuitive, or obvious, is that this part of the Orient would find the easiest way of soing what they're suppose to be expert at.
Tweets-Dec/12/2020
Niederhoffer Sennett Market Daily Web #`1 https://youtu.be/kkUnTTfKt8Q via @YouTube start of new
Tweets-Dec/9/2020
38% of the days in 2019 and 2020 have ended with a 20 day hi in sp future as of close
wsj.com/articles/trumps-challenges-to-election-face-end-of-the-legal-road-11607518944?mod=hp_lead_pos6… how many biases against pres can you find in this from the wsj news dept and the fox coverage of same issue
WSJ market watch pulls out "sterling awaits last s upper on Brexit. only 8 years out of date. anything to sink orange from news dept.
Kona coffee tasting good in gold
Tweets-Dec/8/2020
Perhaps the strength of the SP these days and its assault on the round number of 3700. is that the betting odds favorite for Pres. in 2024 is Kamela Harris at 20% and Biden is 13% . Pres trump follows at 11%. as mentioned repeatedly the market loves the most "progressive"
The SP plays a lethal game with the round number once again at the close. how many time can you ask the object of your affection to come to your establishment and be rejected. and how will you feel when the answer is yet
Study of Horse Handicappers
Big Al writes:
Behavioral Problems of Adhering to a Decision Policy Paul Slovic Oregon Research Institute, Eugene, Oregon Paper presented at the Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance May 1, 1973, Napa, California
https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1794/23607/928.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
Another example of inconsistency comes from a study of expert horse-race handicappers, which we are currently conducting at the Oregon Research Institute. We're not really interested in horse-race predictions, we're studying the stresses caused by information overload, and horse racing provides an appropriate context in which to do this. We expect that the results will generalize to any domain in which the skilled integration of large masses of quantitative information is performed by means of human judgment. For horse-race
handicapping is an information game, much as investment analysis is an information game, and although there are many differences between these two domains of risk-taking, there are many similarities as well. Figure 1 shows a typical past-performance chart, which gives detailed information about each horse’s recent performances. It doesn't take too much imagination to see the similarities between these kinds of charts and the data sources used in some forms of financial analysis. Our judges in this study were eight individuals, carefully selected for heir expertise as handicappers. Each judge was presented with a list of 88 variables culled from the pastperformance charts. He was asked to indicate which five variables out of the 88 he would wish to use when handicapping a race, if all he could have was five variables.
He was then asked to indicate which 10, which 20, and which 40 he would use if 10, 20, or 40 were available to him. Before examining inconsistency, though, let's look at how accuracy and confidence varied with amount of information as shown in Figure 4 of the handout. We see that accuracy was as good with five variables as it was with 10, 20, or 40. The flat curve is an average over eight subjects and is somewhat misleading. Three of the eight actually showed a decrease in accuracy with more information, two improved, and three stayed about the same. All of the handicappers became more confident in their judgments as information increased.
In Table 1, we see a comparison of the amount of inconsistency in our handicappers’ judgments at low and high levels of information.
Consistency was measured in three ways—by the number of times the first-place horse was changed when the race was judged the second time, by the number of changes in any of the five ranks, and by the sum of the differences in ranks from one time to the next. Each of these measures told the same story—there was considerable inconsistency in the rankings, and this inconsistency increased as the amount of available information increased.
These results should give some pause to those of us who believe we're better off by getting as many items of information as possible, prior to making a decision.
Ken Sadofsky writes:
US voters largely hold as good mechanics, if it ain't broke don't fix it. For Boris if still here opening lines of AC tell a lot about the topical, unintentionally; something for Lindsey and Schumer and maybe to close it, he ain't no boss. And like science, music takes political sides it seems; I disdain - wish someone would just show me the lists what I'm suppose to believe and what to say. I do get reverence to one's fellow carbon forms btw.
most for skimming:
Big Al got me moving on this, I still have much more, but it's locked in my brain vaguely and still can't get to the speaking or typing part. As usual, others can translate below or even my vague thoughts, still in labor. And few have already.
If this gentleman, Allan Lichtman has already been shot down, scuse.
More important is the set or transit ors (a cleverism to make binarys as a set against impeders) seismic shifts shake the status quo at the top, making the presentation and focus of false ones more understandable for me about the process. Five or fewer keys false, incumbent wins; (6, in this case 7 keys false) incumbent loses. –so far, unless SCOTUS wants political upheaval, and they're made to hate politics while endorsing their view on lawful governance.
1)fox https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0PDVeBRLUA
begin @1:30
2)"wik:The 13 Keys
"The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a US presidential election:
Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
When five or fewer of the above statements about an upcoming election are false, the incumbent party candidate is predicted to win the election. When six or more are false, the incumbent party candidate is predicted to lose the election.
By "incumbent party", Lichtman means the party to which the incumbent President belongs. In the 2016 election, the Democratic Party was the incumbent party as then-President Barack Obama was a Democrat. Obama was in his second term and thus was ineligble for re-election, so Hillary Clinton ran as the candidate for the Democratic Party, i.e. she was the incumbent party candidate. Donald Trump was the candidate for the Republican Party, i.e. he was the challenging party candidate.
Some of these keys can be judged using objective metrics, such as economic growth, and some of these keys are of rather subjective nature, such as candidate charisma. In the latter case, a forecaster must evaluate the circumstances of all past elections together so that his judgments are at least consistent if not objective, and then observe how his judgments retroactively predict historical election outcomes so that he can refine his subjective standards into something reliably predictive for future elections.[1]"
3)other - one scientific answer may be better suited to another science:
"While predictions of earthquakes eluded his methods and algorithms, they seem to have succeeded in another, completely unrelated field. In 1981 the Russian Keilis-Borok teamed up with an American 26 years his junior. His partner was Allan Lichtman, a political historian at the American University in Washington, D.C. Together they applied the algorithms which would ultimately fail in predicting earthquakes to the US election system. In November 1981 the duo published its results in an article with the very long, unwieldy title "Pattern recognition applied to presidential elections in the United States, 1860-1980: Role of integral social, economic, and political traits" in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in Washington (Vol. 78, pg. 7230).
And what happened? Using this method, Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcomes of the past eight presidential elections in the United States. And now - in contrast to all other pollsters and talking heads - he was the only one to consistently tell all of us who wanted to listen, that the 45th president of the United States was going to be Donald J. Trump. With his statements Allan Lichtman was the lone voice in the desert and has posthumously vindicated the work of Keilis-Borok, who passed away three years ago in his home in Culver City in the Los Angeles Area."
https://seismo.berkeley.edu/blog/2016/11/13/predicting-presidents-and-not-earthquakes.html
2020 Election - Supreme Court
Big Al writes:
Texas has standing. Article III, Section 2: In all Cases affecting Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, and those in which a State shall be Party, the supreme Court shall have original Jurisdiction.
They have standing in terms of jurisdiction, but I think it's a question whether they can show the *state of Texas* was harmed. The Republican party in Texas may not like it, but that's different. I don't know and you may be right - I'm just saying.
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
They could deny the Pennsylvania case as they just have because their jurisdiction is discretionary. Here it is original. That is my only point. In order to reject the "case" as "moot", they have to accept it. The extraordinary part of this lawfare has been the refusal of every trial court to hear any evidence at all; they have all ducked. What makes it difficult for the Supremos to follow the same tactic is (1) original jurisdiction and (2) it is a pure appellate case. All the "evidence" is documentary - i.e. the rulings of the governors, Secretaries of States, Board of Election officials - and it is already on the record. No injunctions or writs of mandamus required. No witnesses or depositions needed. The risk for the Dems is the one that has always been there: the Supremos disqualify the Electors for those states and leave it up to the House to pick the next President. That also allows them to duck in much the same way they did in Bush v. Gore.
Michael Cook writes:
And in effect thus overturn the election result.
Does anyone seriously think Roberts will have a piece of that?…
Tweets-Dec/7/2020
slow steady inexorable rise to round so far.. but how caan one be tricked> what evil lies in the hearts of the market
BOJ Becomes Biggest Japan Stock Owner With $434 Billion Hoard
Peter Pinkhaven writes:
I am 20 years now removed from Fixed Income but I read the effect of BOJ buying has led to days where there have been no trades in the benchmark JGB. Also for 30 years as the “smart“ crowd bet against the JGB due to debt to GDP climbing to 100 then 200pct & zero rates in return - shorting JGBs became known as the Widowmaker.
I thought the expected endgame in Japan was for the BOJ to swap the equity holdings in the Topix for the JGBs the State/Postal Pension Fund owns.
As we look at the Japanification of all OECD economies - Russell Napier has a fascinating view where Russell has flipped from being a perpetual deflationist to saying the OECD will be at 4pct inflation in 12 months time - not because of QE but because of the guaranteeing of loans which injects real non recourse cash into the economies and grows bank reserves (risk free lending to the banks)
https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/teg_0005/
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
"Given that it is expected to take more time to achieve the price stability target, due in part to the impact of COVID-19, I think it will become even more important for monetary easing measures to be sustainable and flexible. Given that monetary easing is expected to be further prolonged due in part to the impact of COVID-19, the Bank should look for additional ways to enhance the sustainability and flexibility of the policy measures so that it will not face difficulty in conducting ETF and J REIT purchases when an appropriate lowering of risk premia of asset prices is absolutely necessary." (Speech to local leaders in Fukushima, via webcast, 3 December)
Sitting in the bleachers along with all the cardboard pictures of people, even I have noticed that concession sales are down. You can't buy a beer because there is nobody around to sell you one. If the national Treasury buys the stock of the food service company that has the concession, will that raise the price of the beer I can't buy?
Tweets-Dec/6/2020
The round number has been hit at 3600. will bonds force it down , or will number not be the penumbra? only the shadow knows
that sh o udl be 3700. the progressives main arg'ument is that the digestive situation of a prominent orange attorney is not good
Tweets-Dec/5/2020
how many sp pts could you make if you caught the exct low and high of the day in 2020. ansr is 300 full sp pts on 3 separate days march 13 , march 16 and march 17 . thats 15000 for 1 contract or 10% on the underlying in one beautiful day. the average is 65 pts
Tweets-Dec/4/2020
looks like another round number coming up to celebrate progressism perhaps the Georgia election is becoming more woke
Tweets-Dec/3/2020
everything unchanged except gold at a 5day high recovering frm a 12% continuous swoon. the big traders , and infra structure giants must create extra vol today to swing the public inti switches and churning before employment
a nice dipsey doodle out of the blue sky the market devil is infinitely creative when it c0mes to causing the vig and churn
heard in the 27 th district of cal. a call is on hold from the surgeons dining room at va hospital . they wish to know from the congresswoman how the pfizer announcent effects the inverse ultra puts of Indonesia
you have to hand it to the market devils . in the last 15 minutes of the trading day they manged to bring sp from the high of day at 3680 to th low at 3645 and then bak to the middle at 3668. imposible but true. the reason why the best investor i knew James Lorie always said
"stick to buy and hold"
Ethereum Becoming More Than Crypto Coder Darling
This article is about 4 years late…