Daily Speculations: The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner
net worth of all families in thousands of 2004 $
1995 2004
median $70.8 $93.1 mean $260.8 $448.2 ``` Gregory Van Kipnis adds: To make any translation to the Fed Family Finances data from the National Income Accounts means the journalist also has to understand the difference between Net Income (if positive it is savings) and New Worth, on a mark-to-market basis, which takes into account relative value changes in asset and liability values as well as net income increments. Not likely! Peter Earle offers: With respect to drawing parallels between poisons and market-derived death, I note the following general categories of deadly ingestants: 1. Corrosives - mercury falls into this category, as do acids, alkalis, and the "salts"; disability and death via these come by severe burning and inflammation of exposed tissues in the mouth, throat, and gastrointestinal tract. 2. Irritants - arsenic is the prime mover in this category, which includes lead, copper, zinc, and other metallic compounds; injury and expiration here arrive via burning, nausea, vomiting, and at times rupture/burning of organs. 3. Neurotics/psychoactants - strychnine, opium derivatives, and the like fall into this category; seizure, convulsions, and general neurological/central nervous system shut-down occurs from ingesting these in excessive quantities. ...traveling, variously, in solid, liquid, and gas states. I'd add, as a natural philosopher at work and with an eye extended toward market applications, that these are good qualitative groups into which poisons might be divided. However, that knowing as we do of allergies and "reactions" - from hives and rashes to vomiting and, tragically, sometimes death - that an *effective* definition, or categorization, of poison is far from simple. Indeed, "aquagenous urticaria" describes a rare but documented condition in which individuals experience toxicological effects from ingesting or coming in contact with water, plain old H2O. One man's sustenance - volatility harvesting, catching bounces, trend following, or what you have you - is another's discomfort or demise. Other poison topics for exploration, where markets are concerned, may include: 1. Treatment of poison - in particular, by means of other poisons. 2. Developing immunity by means of ingesting poisons in small amounts, over time. 3. Poisons in nature (venoms, bacteria/viruses) versus man-made poisons (mercury powders, dioxin, et al). 4. Stages in "a" poisoning: ingestion; immediate, acute reactions; target organ/system exposure; longer-term (i.e, 5/10 minute) action; fully exposed state. Perhaps long term effects, if death is not indicated: carcinogenic, "flashback", etc. James Sogi contributes: Hate, greed and fear poison the mind and lead to physical manifestations. Compassion, and its manifestation in Hawaii, as the spirit of Aloha, are the universal solvent and antidote. This is not the airline version of aloha with which you may be familiar. Though briefly stated here, the truth of the foregoing is profound, and is not limited to its attendant social benefits, but to the workings of one's own well being. These poisons can spread on social scale into memes and infect cultures, businesses and families. These poisons can contaminate your trading room, and your living room, and wreak havoc on the bottom line. The universal solvent does not seem like it is critical to trading, but as an antidote to the poison, it can help the bottom line. Poisons, have their means of insinuating themselves. In processed foods, in radio, TV, magazines, in schools, poisons are spread and build up in the system. It can creep in slowly, and paralyze the trader. Chemists now are working on the electro magnetic communication between molecules, and the competition between various chemicals for reaction with others. Though not life, they exhibit remarkable lifelike properties. For example, Carbon monoxide beats oxygen to the blood platelets. Viruses that Dr. Dorn mentioned, sneak into healthy beings, weaken the host, and turn the victims into pod victims (even though Dr. Zachar points out that core inflation is steady and Americans DO save.) For more posts on Poison ... 1-March-2006 A Slice of Life and the Pizza Indicator, by Henry Gifford I once started a file where I saved various definitions of "inflation" I saw reported in my (rare) newspaper and magazine reading. It soon grew to encompass so many different definitions that the exercise seemed pointless, and I abandoned it. I was attempting to count how many times "inflation" was used in the narrow sense I use it, which is to describe a lowering of the value of money, which I learned when I was 4 years old (1964) and spent evenings with my siblings helping my father separate silver dimes and quarters from the others. My mother reports that at the time (or a few years earlier) my father predicted that inflation would effect every aspect of life, especially people's attitudes toward savings and their long vs. short term attitudes toward everything. Perhaps he meant this to include attitudes toward health too. Anyhow, my mother said she disagreed with nothing he said, since despite being college educated she had never heard the word "inflation." The mention of the changing supply/demand ratio for hip replacements, and the resulting change in price, makes it clear that price changes alone cannot be used to measure the changing value of money. Nor does a particular standard of living remain standard as such things continue to be invented. The resulting confusion seems to be used to the advantage of the political class. My favorite way to measure inflation is by the price of a slice of pizza, because it takes into account many factors such as real estate, taxes, increased efficiency of supply distribution and shipping, decreased influence of the mafia, wages, energy, etc. The man who sold me pizza for 25 cents a slice in the 1960's is still there, but doesn't remember the exact years he changed his prices. Any accurate data anyone could provide would be appreciated. Steve Wisdom responds: Yes, all true. But pizza is non-scalable (labor-intensive) and inflexible, a recipe for above-normal "inflation." The methodology of baking pizzas is about the same as 1, 2, 3 generations ago. And a NYC pizzeria can't move to avoid the NYC tax/regulatory climate, America's worst, since its customers are walk-ins. Longtime Spec-listers will recall my post a while back comparing the relative price change in beer (scalable) and theatre-tickets (labor-intensive) since the time of Shakespeare. The relative cost of beer has gone way down. George Zachar salivates; and adds: There's only so long I can ignore a thread about pizza. According to the Cleveland Fed's "Inflation Central" page, 25 cents in 1960 was equal to $1.62 in 2005. Until recently, a slice of pizza and a subway ride traded at rough parity. The last bump in real estate costs broke that, with slices now running in the $2.50 to $2.75 area, while a ride on the D out to Coney Island costs $2.00. January 2006 Letter and Contribution Awards Readership of DailySpeculations, measured both by visits and page views, set records in January. Along with the surge in attention came many noteworthy contributions and letters to the editor. A few highlights: 1. U. Maryland sophomore Henry Magram on Thoreau's market observations. 2. Brief and elegant: Steve Leslie of Melbourne, Fla., on the circumspection of old gamblers; G.M. Nigel Davies responds to a fellow Spec's question on how many balls to juggle. 3. Mike Good's correction to our piece on crocodiles was such a pleasure to read that it took away the sting, while the Las Vegas Whale's extension of the subject to long-short and equity-neutral funds made us shake for the folks on the other side of his trades. The Whale also weighed Byron Wien's list of predicted New Year's "surprises" in the scales and found it wanting, and shared his own forecast for 2006. 4. "Top 10 Daytrading Lies" by Craig Maccagno and James Lackey, augmented by Nathan Stewart, set off so many bells that we thought it was noon. 5. Rod Fitzsimmons Frey's first-hand account on riding the public bus in Madagascar; the last line applies to markets as well as jungles. 6. The modest self-styled Assistant Webmaster Steve Wisdom set the standard, as usual, with a Friday the 13th counting piece, ending with an explanation of why he does not write almanacs. Dr. Kim Zussman also continues to generously post distinguished countings. 7. Jim Sogi of Hilo, Hawaii, a regular and honored contributor, started a Galtonian exchange on private jets, "The Friendly Skies," among George Zachar, the Las Vegas Whale, and the Assistant Webmaster. 8. The exchange among J.T. Holley, John Lamberg and Kim Zussman on parent participation in the Pinewood Derby and classroom science experiments is a Daily Spec classic. 9. Russell Sears' post "Tying Your Shoelaces" was a standout and a meal for a lifetime. The material on this Web site is provided free by us and our readers. Because incentives work, each month we reward the best contribution or letter to the editor with $1,000 to encourage good thinking about the market and augment the mutual benefits of participating in the Daily Speculations forum. Prizes are awarded at the end of each month by the Chair and the Collab. This month, we award the $1,000 prize to Russell Sears for "Tying Your Shoelaces" and $250 to each of the honorable others mentioned above. -- Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner Winning January 2006 Posts in Full R#fco Notes: Victor's Statements on R#fco; Media Coverage; News Story Correction Tally; Letters From Readers The Daily Spec Archives February 16-28, 2006 February 1-15, 2006 January 16-31, 2006 January 1-15, 2006 December 15-31, 2005 December 1-15, 2005 November 15-30, 2005 November 1-15, 2005 October 16-25, 2005 October 1-15, 2005 September 15-30, 2005 September 1-15, 2005 August 2005 [July 2005](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/july2005/july2005.html) [June 2005](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/june2005/june2005.html) [May 2005](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/may2005/may2005.html) [April 2005](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/april2005/april2005.html) [March 2005](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/march2005/march2005.html) [February 2005](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/feb2005/feb2005.html) [January 2005](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/jan2005/jan2005.html) [December 2004](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/dec2004/dec2004.html) [November 2004](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/nov2004/nov2004.html) [October 2004](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/oct2004/oct2004.html) [August 2004](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/Sep2004ec_archives/aug2004/august2004.html) [July 2004](https://dailyspeculations.com/dailyspec_archives/july2004/july2004.html) [June 2004](https://dailyspeculations.com/%7Cdailyspec_archives/june2004/june2004.html) [Practical Speculation](http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471443069/) by Laurel Kenner and Victor Niederhoffer (Wiley & Sons, February 2003) is now available in paperback, and in Russian and Japanese. | ©2006 All Content Protected by Copyright | | | | |