Some Predictions, by Victor Niederhoffer
Inspired by breaks of round at 1,400 in SPU and 1,800 in NDX and Google moving to 498, one is tempted to make some numerical, gravitational, uneconomic predictions for end of year.
- S&P futures: 1400 or 1410 (either the spot or futures at round)
- Google: 500
- Dax: 6,500
- US long term bond futures: 114 or 115
- Crude: 60
- Nasdaq spot: 1,800
- Dow: 12,250
- Bund: 118.00
Joyce Shulman observes:
A completely uneconomic prediction for the end of the year is that trouble might be brewing. Some months ago Victor asked what do you notice that you do when you are possibly making emotional mistakes in the market when the market is rising. It took me a while to realize what I do. I begin to make reservations and plan expensive trips. I am doing it again.
Steve Ellison invokes some quantitative techniques:
Using the arc-sine distribution, I predict the S&P will make its high for 2006 on December 29.
The ratio of the earnings yield on the S&P 500 index to the yield of the 10-year bond was 1.17 at yesterday’s close (using trailing earnings, not yet adjusted for the September quarter). The 2006 high to date is 1.23 on September 25, and the 2006 low is 1.03 on May 9.
Jay Pasch guesses:
Nasdaq futures, open gap @ 1807.25 from 1/17/06…