Speaking of Perfection, from Kim Zussman
In a quick check of quarterly GDP data since 1947, I looked for instances of quarters less than priors (those under 30 will need a good economic history text to understand this). I then counted quarters between down quarters, and regressed this lag with (proxy for) date:
Regression Analysis: lag versus no
The regression equation is
lag = 1.99 + 0.0451 no
Predictor Coef SE Coef T P
Constant 1.991 2.739 0.73 0.472
no 0.045 0.0249 1.81 0.079
S = 9.40899 R-Sq = 8.8% R-Sq(adj) = 6.1%
The positive and almost-significant slope shows de-fettering native free-market forces over time has reduced the frequency of contracting GDP quarters.
Or as Buzz Light-year would say, “To volatility zero and beyond!”