Zeus, Alors. Best Decision Analysis, from John Kuhn
Looks like a thoughtful and remarkable piece of work . The gist of this article is that coaches should go for it on 4th and short more often. I don't know pro football (I last watched a game in 1986) but the behavioral parallel to "taking a small profit" in the markets, i.e., the field goal rather than staying in for the full move, the touchdown, leaps off the page.