By Some Measures Stocks Are in a Bull Market, from Steve Ellison
As the S&P 500 is up more than 20% from its lows. It took only 12 calendar days for the S&P 500 to move up 20% from the March 6 low. In this regard, faster may not be better. There has been a strong positive correlation (R squared = 0.51) between the length of time of the initial 20% advance and the ultimate magnitude of the advance before the next 20% decline. The predicted top for this advance is 846, but the margin of error is wide.
First Total
date Calendar calendar
20% days days Gain log(gain
above after bottom bottom bottom
bottom bottom to top to top to top)
01/05/88 77 1000 71% 0.23
02/06/91 118 2839 304% 0.61
11/02/98 25 533 68% 0.23
05/21/01 60 61 22% 0.09
11/08/01 48 108 25% 0.10
08/15/02 22 29 24% 0.09
11/04/02 25 1827 105% 0.31
10/14/08 4 4 24% 0.09
11/28/08 7 46 27% 0.11