Jobs Report, from Stefan Jovanovich
According to David Rosenberg's reading of the Household Survey:
So many economic-sensitive sectors lost more jobs in December: construction (-53,000), durable goods manufacturing (-16,000), retail/wholesale (-28,000), transportation (-8,000), leisure/hospitality (-25,000), information services (-6,000) and real estate (-6,000). In other words, the segments of the employment pie that are sensitive to the business cycle actually cratered 142,000 last month, which flies in the face of the overwhelming view that this recession has really fully run its course.
The net 85,000 figure comes from allowing these losses of full-time jobs to be offset by part-time employment ("47,000 rise in 'temp help') and growth in the health/education sector (35,000). As Rosenberg notes, even with the government injection of "barbiturates", the rise in public sector jobs is below the 40,000 monthly pace that occurred during the last cyclical recovery.