Westminster Kennel Club Stock Market, from Rocky Humbert
The "Superbowl Indicator" has earned a dubious place in stock market forecasting lore. Much less known, but statistically more persuasive is my proprietary Westminster Kennel Club Scottish Terrier Indicator "WKCSTI."
The WKCSTI is triggered when a Scottish Terrier wins "Best of Show," and over the past 103 years, it has correlated with bullish stock markets.
Year that a Scotty Won/Stock Market Return:
1911: 3.52%
1945: 39.35%
1950: 34.2%
1965: 12.45%
1967: 24.4%
1985: 32%
1995: 38%
2010: ?
Note: The study did not include West Highland Terriers despite their genetic similarities to the Scottish Terrier. That is left as an exercise for the reader.
Sources: A list of the Westminster Best of Show Winners can be found here.
The stock market returns can be found here.
Kim Zussman replies:
Using two sample t-test to compare mean returns for "Scotty" vs All, Scotty is significantly higher than all years in the series (SP500 or
facsimile, per linked site):
Two-sample T for Scotty vs All years
N Mean StDev SE Mean
Scotty 7 26.3 13.6 5.2
All years 103 11.4 20.3 2.0
Difference = mu (Scotty) - mu (All years)
Estimate for difference: 14.8962
95% CI for difference: (1.8206, 27.9719)
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = 2.69 P-Value = 0.031 DF = 7
Rocky discovered yet another market anomaly. Beam us up, Scotty!