Marionette Cat Bounce, from Kim Zussman
The quarter just ended gained 7.4% in the DJIA, after two prior qtr which gained 15% and 11%. Long ago (March 2009) there was a down quarter. Looked for other instances with quarterly return pattern DUUU, also stipulating that the up-qtrs gained more than 5%. Here are the dates, along with the return for the following quarter:
Date DUUUX qtr
06/01/99 -0.058
09/01/95 0.068
03/01/83 0.081
03/01/71 -0.015
06/01/54 0.081
12/01/38 -0.146
12/02/35 0.085
avg 0.014
stdev 0.090
t 0.408
As a wakeful friend pointed out, we are now up 4 consecutive quarters after the down Q1 2009(or DUUUU). Here are the subsequent qtr assuming all 4 were up >4%:
Date DUUUUX
09/01/87 -0.253
03/02/36 0.009
06/01/83 0.009
12/01/95 0.092
09/01/54 0.122
avg -0.004