The Past 2 Day Move, from Jay Pasch
In a poor attempt to apply a bit of science to the art, if we look at a few attributes of the past 2-day move on Nasdaq, with the index trading above the 200sma and double closes above Mr.Bollinger's band, we see quite a steady historical north wind. The numbers look back-end loaded, but a repeat of the 17-for-18 up would put the tech index ahead by an average of 6.9%, or 2677, by mid-June. Of course this has nothing whatsoever to do with Friday…
Date t+5 t+10 t+20 t+30 t+48
01/07/1976 3.2 4.9 9.2 11.3 11.0
11/11/1977 1.3 3.1 2.9 3.0 -0.6
04/14/1978 1.8 3.5 7.3 7.7 8.4
07/08/1980 2.1 3.8 5.5 7.8 15.9
10/08/1982 2.8 9.0 14.1 15.3 13.4
05/13/1985 2.2 1.0 0.8 1.4 6.5
04/17/1986 0.4 -2.1 -1.1 2.6 3.1
01/08/1987 4.0 4.1 7.5 10.5 15.3
07/15/1987 -0.4 -0.0 4.2 5.6 1.6
01/05/1989 0.8 1.9 5.6 5.7 6.0
05/15/1989 1.3 1.8 3.3 2.8 2.2
10/16/1991 -1.1 0.1 2.8 -3.4 1.6
12/31/1991 4.1 7.6 5.1 10.0 6.3
09/06/1995 2.2 2.0 -4.0 0.1 1.4
09/16/1996 1.5 2.8 5.2 1.8 5.4
03/18/2003 -0.7 -3.7 -0.7 4.6 11.1
07/08/2003 0.4 -2.3 -4.2 0.8 5.7
07/11/2005 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.3 1.2
04/15/2010 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 1.5 2.2 3.6 4.9 6.4
AvgPos 1.9 3.4 5.4 5.4 6.8
AvgNeg -0.7 -2.0 -2.5 -3.4 -0.6
PctPos 83.3
77.8 77.8 94.4 94.4
PctNeg 16.7 22.2 22.2 5.6 5.6
Maximum 4.1 9.0 14.1 15.3 15.9
Minimum -1.1 -3.7 -4.2 -3.4 -0.6
StdDev 1.5 3.2 4.6 4.8 5.1
ZStat 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3
TScore 4.1 2.8 3.3 4.3 5.3