Gold Seasonality, from Rocky Humbert
Jim Cramer keeps yelling that September is a bullish month for gold– and that viewers should "BUY NOW!" to participate in this inenvitable September rally. Is this ballyhoo? Or is there a persistent bias?
For Septembers since 1992 (from before the current bull market), gold has risen 14 out of 18 times. For Augusts since 1992, gold has risen 9 out of 18 times. And there's only been one occurence when a positive August was not followed by a positive September. But is this statistically significant?
Monthly % Change
Sept
Aug
2009
5
0.1
2008
6.3
-11
2007
10.8
1.2
2006
-4.9
-1.7
2005
7.79
2.5
2004
2.4
4.2
2003
2.4
5.7
2002
2.5
3
2001
6.3
2.8
2000
-1.3
-0.2
1999
21
-0.3
1998
9
-2.8
1997
2.6
0
1996
-1.7
0.2
1995
2.6
-0.3
1994
2.5
0.9
1993
-4
-8.3
1992
2.4
-3.9
mean
3.98
-0.44
stdev
5.97
4.12
Kim Zussman adds:
The attached is a comparison of monthly mean returns for ETF GLD, ca 11/04-present. For the etfgoldbugera sapiens, September is good, second only to November (though none significantly different from the global mean).
