Down Decades Followed by Up Decades, from Kim Zussman
An interesting post of mine from last year:
"Using Prof. Shiller's monthly data of SP500 returns (including dividends and adjusted for inflation), below is a table of mean monthly return ("MMR") by decade, counting back 120 months from the end of Jan 2010 to Jan 1880 (non-overlapping monthly return by decade). Also shown is monthly stdev and T (comparing mean to zero).
10/14 decades had positive MMR, though only 3 were significantly greater than zero (T>2.0), and one significantly less. Note that all down-decades were followed by up-decades, and the decade with highest MMR (ending Jan 2000) was followed by the recent down decade."
Date av 120 sd 120 T 120
2010.01 -0.003 0.042 -0.81
2000.01 0.010 0.031 3.62
1990.01 0.006 0.038 1.72
1980.01 -0.004 0.039 -1.01
1970.01 0.002 0.030 0.73
1960.01 0.009 0.029 3.37
1950.01 -0.001 0.040 -0.26
1940.01 0.001 0.087 0.07
1930.01 0.010 0.044 2.37
1920.01 -0.006 0.033 -2.06
1910.01 0.003 0.038 0.88
1900.01 0.001 0.033 0.42
1890.01 0.003 0.029 1.17
1880.01 0.004 0.031 1.37