Creating a Winning Bracket, from William Weaver
This is pretty great.
The identification and exploitation between the difference of two variables — 1) the probability that a team will win, and 2) the likelihood that other people have chosen that team– is very much like the markets.
The difference however, is that in markets we want to trade with others if we can be the first in and against others if we can be the last in, whereas a pool is created in a single iteration.