Civics, from Duncan Coker
I thought it my civic duty to do some counting this eve of the annual presidential address to congress. Who in fact is the best speaker of the century ( or at least 1930), not in terms of rhetoric, but in terms of moving the market up. I am using Dow industrial index since 1928 understanding there are substitution and other biases involved. Looking a week after the speech, here are the average percentage moves ranked by president.
Bush Sr 1.5% n=4
Clinton 1.3% n=8
FDR 1.2% n=9
Reagan .7% n=7
Truman .6% n=7
Johnson .6% n=6
Ford .6% n=3
Bush Jr .2% n=8
Kennedy (0.9%) n=3
Eike (.6%) n=8
Carter (1%) n=4
Hoover(2%) n=4
Nixon(2.3%) n=4
Obama(2.5%) n=3
all Reps (.20%) n=38
all Dems .35% n=40
There were a total of 78 speeches in the period. Here is an interesting link.
The Democrats appear to be more beguiling speakers at least to the markets' ear.
I would be glad to add Grant in honor of Stefan if someone will forward any market data from 1869 to 1876. I am sure U.S.G would bring up the Rep. average.