The Regression Fallacy and Smith, from Victor Niederhoffer
A quote from The Examiner about the Knicks loss to Toronto on Friday. "The main culprit was JR Smith who made only 2 of his 9 shots during the fourth quarter". How many can this man lose for the Knicks after winning two games in the early part of last year. 50. No one is a bigger example of the interplay of luck and skill (or lack thereof) than Smith to illustrate the regression fallacy and the problems in trading which arise from succumbing to it, i.e. buying stocks at the open on Monday after a big decline on Friday and seeing it work a few times.