A Thought, from Jeff Rollert
It would be wise to review prior periods of Fed Chair transitions, for their equity and bond moves and overlay that on election years.
But I am not sure I'm wise.
anonymous writes:
Date Chairman DJIA CAGR t t+1 t+5 t+10 t+20 t+62
13-Aug-14 Charles S. Hamlin Market Closed till end of year ??
10-Aug-16 William P. G. Harding 90.05 1.17 -0.23 0.3 2.07 4.2 2.49 16.77
01-May-23 Daniel R. Crissinger 97.4 17.49 -1 0.67 -2.04 -2.05 -1.41 -8.21
04-Oct-27 Roy A. Young 198.88 6.15 -0.45 0.17 -4.95 -6.07 -8.65 1.03
16-Sep-30 Eugene Meyer 237.22 -32.86 0.25 0.22 -6.09 -10.41 -19.06 -21.81
19-May-33 Eugene R. Black 81.75 14.23 -0.99 -1.88 2.42 8.99 15.95 15.11
15-Nov-34 Marriner S. Eccles 99.72 4.51 0.3 -0.33 -0.25 2.67 3.05 1.28
15-Apr-48 Thomas B. McCabe 180.27 11.15 0.64 0.2 0.61 0.39 1.24 5.7
02-Apr-51 William McChesney Martin, Jr. 246.63 6.05 -0.53 -0.25 1.48 3.29 3.29 2.91
02-Feb-70 Arthur F. Burns 746.44 0.07 0.32 1.48 1.24 0.97 5.49 -1.72
08-Mar-78 G. William Miller 750.87 9.04 0.55 -0.12 1.03 0.89 1.74 15.4
06-Aug-79 Paul A. Volcker 848.55 15.42 0.28 1.33 3.15 4.47 2.84 -3.35
11-Aug-87 Alan Greenspan 2680.48 7.91 1.69 -0.42 -0.96 1.56 -4.9 -26.91
01-Feb-06 Ben Bernanke 10953.95 4.72 0.82 -0.93 -0.87 0.96 0.65 4.22
03-Feb-14 Janet Yellen ~15848.61
avg 0.13 0.03 -0.24 0.76 0.21 0.03
stdev 0.73 0.85 2.66 4.67 7.78 12.68
t-test 0.63 0.14 -0.33 0.59 0.10 0.01