In Thinking, from Victor Niederhoffer
In thinking about the fantastic rises from the dead of gold, crude, and bonds last week, one hypothesizes that the time things are most bullish is when it takes the most courage to go against the tide. For example, before the employment number, especially after 4 standard deviation declines in such markets before recent vivid events like last Friday.
Comments
Jan Hendrik on November 12, 2014 4:33 am
Very true, certainly if `tide’ is considered as “very vocal general expression of sentiment about the state of the market.”
By the time there’s a lot of talk, it’s mostly re-justification of past actions; but positions have long been taken to match these sentiments, creating a void on the other side.
We recall:
“Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.” — Yogi Berra