Moves in the S&P After Down Years, from Victor Niederhoffer

2016-01-04 · Victor Niederhoffer
Original source

It is interesting to consider the moves in the S&P after down years. I find 14 years out of the last 60 that were down with an average rise the next year of 9% as follows:

year of decline   move next year
        1957                    35
        1960                    23
        1962                    20
        1966                    22
        1969                      0
        1970                   -10

1973                   -30

1975                    25

1977                      1
        1981                    15
        1990                    25
        2000                   -20

2001                   -14

2002                    20

2008                    20

average                      +8%

I like to do all % calculations in head so some errors will creep in.