That Anniversary, from Charles Pennington
Reminder that Silver said:
“That Patriots drive took another 5:07 off the clock and actually dropped their win probability from 1.1% to 0.5%:”
AND
he said that Trump had a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination.
After such low probability fiascoes it’s impossible to believe that he adds information beyond what can be gleaned from the gambling markets. If he were an active manager, you should go with the index fund.