One of the Greatest Conundrums: EUR/CHF, from anonymous
Quoting Anatoly Veltman:
DB 90% off its record doesn't scare me. I'd buy that before any lottery ticket in the world. But back to EUR/CHF's first touch of 1.2000 since SNB had refused to prop that Maginot line January 2015–this is a market significant event.
about CHF: (I have been wrong before – more often than right.) But I think the SNB wants a weaker franc (e.g =eurchf goes up). So they will love the eurchf up here–the same on all the other CHF-crosses.
The break in 2015 was a failure of their intervention.
On the other hand, there is the chair's round number phenomena. I don't know how to play this.
about DB: The DeutscheBank chart is scary to me, because:
- I think investors can not value the bank.
- by now other EU countries have more successfully managed their failing banks (like Italy)
- I think some sort of strategy of betting for time is going on in Germany
- this strategy seems to fail, because the stock does not participate in the recovery in EuroLand or the world.
- some might bet on a bailout
- there is a strong anti-capitalistic sentiment in Germany and any bailout will trigger one more annoying socialist debate – hence the betting on time (by the government)
The chart attached is the ratio DB(in USD) vs SP500 financials (via XLF).
Comments
Arch on April 26, 2018 9:32 am
But I think the SNB wants a weaker franc
You and everyone. That’s the conventional wisdom.