With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election, from Alston Mabry
"With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election"
On whether the D side can find a candidate that will actually stimulate the turnout required:
The potential advantage they have is a long primary process, during which they hope a clearly strong candidate will emerge. And they will figure out what messages to focus on to get that turnout.
What 45 will do is try to time a great trade breakthrough with China so that it gives him max boost going into the election. That timing should be a tradeable opp.