Big Rally Off Low, from Steve Ellison
I looked for historical instances in which the S&P 500 made a 6-month low and was at least 10% higher 20 days later (with no new low in the meantime). I found 14 instances going back to 1982 and determined the net changes in the next 21 days and the next 63 days.
% change % change
Date 21 days later 63 days later
9/10/1982 13.4% 16.6%
8/21/1984 -0.9% -4.9%
1/5/1988 -2.6% -0.6%
11/12/1999 0.3% -1.5%
5/3/2001 1.2% -3.1%
10/19/2001 7.6% 4.4%
8/20/2002 -10.4% -4.2%
11/6/2002 -1.3% overlap
12/19/2008 -6.3% -8.5%
4/6/2009 10.5% 6.4%
8/2/2010 -6.6% 5.6%
10/31/2011 -0.3% 6.1%
3/11/2016 2.2% 4.3%
1/24/2019 6.2% 10.9%
Average 0.9% 2.4%
Standard deviation 6.7% 7.0%
N 14 13
t 0.12 0.19
Average of all periods 0.7% 2.0%
Results are consistent with randomness. Maybe the forward-looking statistics were more bullish a month ago.