The turn of the year
thank you to all my correspondents, happy new year. let us hope that the same regularities, drift greet us next year. there seems to be no negative correlation between the S&P moves in one year and the next. in other words the 27% gain this year is not abnormally bearish.
on the two occasions that the S&P dropped a little on dec 31 during the last 10 years, it was bullish for all the relevant subsequent periods. however, on the 6 occasions where the S&P was up big over the preceding 5 months, it was bullish for Jan but there was one big decline that occurred around May that brought the expectation down big.