Prospects, expectation, and hard losses

the prospects of reg capture to fellow travelers has decreased. the money at the wire is particularly distressed.
appox 70% of wagers against old gray mare since odds went from 37% to 32% in a week.
suppose the expectation for the next hour is very positive (say +50) but the chance that it will decline is 80%. what's the right decision?
an old times lament: so many good people I have known have passed away - all the owners of closely-held companies I have sold: Norman Tyler, Harvey Sellers, Richard Bernard, Barron Coleman, Charlie Turner, Herb Everts, Hal Gaines, Philo Biane, John Dore.
and my Mentor Jim Lorie, and collaborators MFM Osborne, Harry Roberts - they were all so good to me and I miss them greatly and think about them every evening and have to listen to audible to ease my pain. Irving Redel - so great and so good to me.