Bill Rafter

2025-12-30 — Jobs: Rebirth, from Bill Rafter
2025-11-22 — Getting back to normal with Jobs data, from Bill Rafter
2025-10-22 — Government shutdown question, from Cagdas Tuna
2025-08-12 — A deeper look at employment, from Bill Rafter
2025-07-21 — CPI Data Quality Declining
2025-07-18 — C & I loans, Large v. Small banks, from Bill Rafter
2025-06-09 — Analyzing Employment Trends: Full-Time vs. Part-Time Work, from Bill Rafter
2025-03-20 — Shoeshine boy, from P. Humbert (Updated)
2025-03-08 — Jobs, from Bill Rafter
2025-02-11 — Full vs part-Time employment growth rates, from Bill Rafter
2024-12-09 — This is what recovery looks like, from Bill Rafter
2024-11-30 — Productivity and AI, from David Lillienfeld
2024-11-14 — Crypto and the money supply, from Bill Rafter
2024-09-09 — Full-time vs. Part-time Employment, from Bill Rafter
2024-07-20 — Looking deeper into employment, from Bill Rafter
2024-07-01 — Payroll Tax Receipts Growth thru July 1, 2024, from Bill Rafter
2024-03-24 — An Alternate Understanding of “All Time High”, from Asindu Drileba
2023-12-19 — Arithmetic vs geometric average returns, from Zubin Al Genubi
2023-08-19 — Is America winning? from Bill Rafter
2022-08-10 — The Count, from Duncan Coker
2022-06-05 — Payroll Tax Receipts, from Bill Rafter
2022-04-03 — Term structure of rates, from Bill Rafter
2020-12-14 — Food Item
2020-01-05 — Article of the Day, from Victor Niederhoffer
2019-12-01 — Go Champion Retires, from Jeff Watson
2019-10-16 — Book Review: The Murderbot Series, from Bill Rafter
2019-08-24 — Unreliable Times, from Bill Rafter
2019-02-10 — Shipping Rates, from Anatoly Veltman
2018-12-18 — A View, from Bill Rafter
2018-09-01 — Flexion of the Day, from Victor Niederhoffer
2018-08-13 — Reconciling the Data with the News, from Bill Rafter
2018-05-31 — Anticipating Friday’s “Jobs” Report, from Bill Rafter
2018-04-11 — Volatility Question, from Bill Rafter
2018-03-14 — An Interesting Article, from Victor Niederhoffer
2018-03-04 — The Calendar on DailySpec, from Bill Rafter
2018-02-27 — Disregard, Disrespect, Defenestrate, from Bill Rafter
2018-02-14 — Smart Money vs. Amateurs, from Bill Rafter
2018-02-03 — Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble, from Bill Rafter
2018-01-27 — A Measure of Exuberance, from Bill Rafter
2017-12-02 — Greatest Bubble Since Dotcom, from Anatoly Veltman
2017-11-20 — One, from Bill Rafter
2017-10-31 — IQ, from Scott Brooks
2017-08-29 — Hurricane Related Question, from Bill Rafter
2017-08-27 — Volume Vs Range, from Bill Rafter
2017-01-02 — Jobs: Current and Future, from Bill Rafter
2016-12-17 — Odd in the Current Context, from Bill Rafter
2016-12-13 — Easy Macro Timing, Jobs Division, from Bill Rafter
2016-12-05 — Robo Advisors, from Sanders Chae
2016-11-17 — Don’t Listen to Gurus, Listen to the Markets, from Bill Rafter
2016-11-12 — Election 2016 = Apollo 11, from Bill Rafter
2016-10-31 — Post Human Investing, from Stefan Martinek
2016-10-12 — In Our Opinion, A Wind Shift, from Bill Rafter
2016-10-05 — Futures Settlement Price vs Closing Price and Subsequent Returns in a Volatile Environment? from Paul Marino
2016-09-16 — A Gedankenexperiment, from Bill Rafter
2016-08-30 — Payroll Taxes August 2016: Graphic, from Bill Rafter
2016-08-29 — An Antidote to Pessimism, from Victor Niederhoffer
2016-08-24 — Quant only Vs. (Qual + Quant), from Alexander Good
2016-08-16 — Captain Vic, from DailySpeculations
2016-08-02 — Book Review: “Who Needs the Fed?”, from Bill Rafter
2016-07-22 — A Personal Observation About Markets, from Bill Rafter
2016-07-11 — Do You Stop Trading When You Reach Your Goal? from Leo Jia
2016-06-13 — The macroeconomic Fates of Nations: the Patient Inherit the Earth, from Bill Rafter
2016-06-09 — Performance Measures, from Stefan Martinek
2016-06-02 — It is Interesting to Consider, from Victor Niederhoffer
2016-05-18 — 2 Factor Models, from anonymous
2016-05-09 — Best and Worst Days, from Alston Mabry
2016-04-13 — The Cassandra Portfolio, from Bill Rafter
2016-03-30 — Anticipating Friday’s Jobs Report, from Bill Rafter
2016-03-19 — Furthering the Present Narrative About Equities, from Bill Rafter
2016-03-13 — Article of the Day, from Scott Brooks
2016-03-03 — No Model is Perfect, from Bill Rafter
2016-02-26 — Gut Feelings, from Bill Rafter
2015-12-30 — Machiavellian Maxims, from Scott Brooks
2015-11-30 — What Kind of Moving Average, from Victor Niederhoffer
2015-11-09 — True or False: The Stock Market Leads the Economy, Not the Other Way Round, from Larry Williams
2015-10-23 — To Wait or To Go Ahead, from Victor Niederhoffer
2015-08-13 — Macro Economic Factoid, from Bill Rafter
2015-07-06 — By the Way, from Victor Niederhoffer
2015-06-05 — The Order of Things, from anonymous
2015-02-16 — Bonds, from Victor Niederhoffer
2015-02-13 — The Commitments of Traders Report, from Stefan Martinek
2015-02-11 — To Wait or Not to Wait, from anonymous
2014-12-15 — The Differences in Trending Between Stocks and Commodities, from Gary Rogan
2014-12-12 — Cryptography and Imitation Game, from Bill Rafter
2014-12-12 — A Centenary Salute to Patrick O’Brian, from Bill Rafter
2014-12-03 — An Observation, from Bill Rafter
2014-12-02 — A Disturbing Chart, from Bruno Ombreux
2014-10-31 — Monetary Base, from Bill Rafter
2014-10-17 — Wage Growth, from David Lillienfeld
2014-10-17 — Linear B and the Market, from Bill Rafter
2014-09-22 — Nobel: QED we’re always bad, from Kim Zussman
2014-07-22 — Does Anybody Know the Optimal Backtested Period to Calculate Beta? from Leo Jia
2014-06-24 — Milankovic and Global Warming, from Bill Rafter
2014-06-04 — Predictive Value of Short Stock Interest, from Sam Marx
2014-05-26 — A Question about Government Work, from Bill Rafter
2014-02-14 — MagicFormula Investing, from Alex Castaldo
2014-02-05 — One Wonders, from Victor Niederhoffer
2014-01-17 — What Are the Major 3 Body Markets, from Victor Niederhoffer
2014-01-13 — The Three Body Problem in Finance, from Vic Niederhoffer
2014-01-10 — Rather Tame Volume, from Victor Niederhoffer
2013-12-18 — A 1 Billion Jackpot, from Bill Rafter
2013-12-05 — Employment Musings, With a Note on Disability Data, from Bill Rafter
2013-11-25 — Some Preliminary Thoughts on the Moving Median, from Victor Niederhoffer
2013-10-31 — Jobs Data, from Bill Rafter
2013-10-29 — Conflicted FED Model, from Bill Rafter
2013-10-23 — Apple’s Hubris, from Anton Johnson
2013-10-02 — Jobs Report, from Bill Rafter
2013-09-18 — An Upcoming Bull Market in China? from Leo Jia
2013-09-13 — Rocky’s Challenge, from Rocky Humbert
2013-09-06 — Issue with Employment Numbers, from Stefan Jovanovich
2013-09-02 — Wag the Dog, from Bill Rafter
2013-09-02 — How to Decide if an Asset is Up or Down, from Bill Rafter
2013-08-24 — Today’s Macro-Economic Chart, from Bill Rafter
2013-08-13 — Bacterial Booms & Crashes, from anonymous
2013-08-06 — Python Library to Allow Access to SEC’s Filings, from Bill Rafter
2013-07-30 — The “If Onlys” are Inevitable, from Bill Rafter
2013-07-23 — I Was Wrong About Volume, from Bill Rafter
2013-07-01 — Unanimity of Signals: Seldom What it Seems, from Bill Rafter
2013-05-14 — The Difference Between a Speculator and a Gambler, from Larry Williams
2013-05-13 — Self-Employment Jobs Numbers, from Bill Rafter
2013-03-25 — Ramblings About Quantitative Research, from Bill Rafter
2013-01-28 — Whither the Jobs Report, from Bill Rafter
2012-12-13 — Time Ratio Analysis, from Laurence Glazier
2012-12-05 — Our Guess on Jobs Numbers, from Bill Rafter
2012-11-27 — A Post, from Victor Niederhoffer
2012-11-08 — A Circuit Describing Price Action in Markets, from Victor Niederhoffer
2012-11-06 — The Problem With Polling, from Bill Rafter
2012-09-24 — Somebody IS Spending, from Bill Rafter
2012-09-12 — What Are the Best Markets to Trade, from George Coyle
2012-09-05 — Currency Trading Observation, from Bill Rafter
2012-08-12 — The Last Cavalier, from Bill Rafter
2012-08-06 — More on Algebra, from Bill Rafter
2012-07-31 — Mango Trees and Markets, from Jim Sogi
2012-07-13 — Speed Ratings for Horses and Markets, from Victor Niederhoffer
2012-06-18 — Initial Unemployment Claims, from Bill Rafter
2012-06-10 — Quantification Query of the Day, from Victor Niederhoffer
2012-06-08 — Some Call It Luck, But We Know Otherwise, from Bill Rafter
2012-06-05 — The Aura of Legitimacy, from Victor Niederhoffer
2012-04-29 — Baseball Greats, from Bill Rafter
2012-02-21 — Gasoline Fears, from Bill Rafter
2012-02-07 — What is the Proper Model, from Victor Niederhoffer
2012-01-22 — Hats, from Victor Niederhoffer
2012-01-20 — The Problem With Polling, from Bill Rafter
2011-12-22 — 10 Things You Can Learn About the Market from Greek and Roman Times and Myths, from Victor Niederhoffer
2011-10-26 — The Out-Of-Print Books Ripoff…Redirected, from William Weaver
2011-10-21 — How Women Can Win on Dates and Markets‏, by Victor Niederhoffer
2011-09-28 — The Value of using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), from Bill Rafter
2011-09-26 — Providing Liquidity for Options, from Bill Rafter
2011-09-25 — One Has Always Wondered, from Victor Niederhoffer
2011-09-19 — A Must Read: “Letters from a Self Made Merchant Man to his Son”, from Bill Rafter
2011-09-17 — Briefly Speaking, from Victor Niederhoffer
2011-08-29 — Round Numbers in Gold Prices, from Bill Rafter
2011-08-24 — Set Markets Against One Another, from Bill Rafter
2011-07-19 — Murky Lenses Can Make Sharper Images, from Bill Rafter
2011-07-03 — Dragonflies and the Market, from Bill Rafter
2011-05-18 — Query of the Day, from Kim Zussman
2011-05-12 — A Prize for a Test of the Principle of Least Action, from Victor Niederhoffer
2011-04-27 — The Gradual Diffusion of New Products Syndrome, from Victor Niederhoffer
2011-04-26 — Stocks and Bonds Living Together… In Sin, from Bill Rafter
2011-04-20 — You May As Well Just Trade DXY, from Sushil Kedia
2011-04-10 — 107 Days, from Kim Zussman
2011-03-17 — Flexionism of the Day, from Victor Niederhoffer
2011-03-16 — More Natural Disasters Likely? from Victor Niederhoffer
2011-02-24 — Upcoming Darwin lecture in NYC, from Bill Rafter
2011-01-25 — Commercial & Industrial Loans Chart, from Bill Rafter
2010-12-31 — A Prize for Profitable Ideas in 2011, from Victor Niederhoffer
2010-12-29 — Up Crashes, from T.K Marks
2010-12-29 — A Positive Black Swan, from Rocky Humbert
2010-12-16 — Quote of the Day, from Bill Rafter
2010-12-16 — Jobs Surrogate, from Bill Rafter
2010-07-22 — I Hypothesize, from Victor Niederhoffer
2010-07-15 — One Wonders, from Victor Niederhoffer
2010-07-01 — Cabin Fever, from Craig Mee
2010-05-19 — High Frequency Trading, from Anatoly Veltman
2010-04-29 — The Gentleman’s Prelude, from Don Chu
2010-04-25 — No, Sir, No Inflation Risk Here, from Bill Rafter
2010-04-18 — Enter The Matrix, from Ken Drees
2010-04-08 — P&C Insurance Companies, from Bill Rafter
2010-03-26 — The Market as a Mirror, from Kim Zussman
2010-03-22 — The Right Angles in Basketball and Markets, from Victor Niederhoffer
2010-03-08 — It Happened, from Bill Rafter
2010-03-01 — More on Money, from Bill Rafter
2010-02-26 — Vig, from Jeff Watson
2010-02-26 — Monetary Base, from Bill Rafter
2010-02-08 — For You Volume Aficionados, by Bill Rafter
2010-02-02 — Volume, from Jim Sogi
2010-01-25 — Payoff to Avoiding Both Up and Down Volatility, from Kim Zussman
2009-12-12 — Some Thoughts About The Range, from Victor Niederhoffer
2009-10-26 — The Wiles of a Con Man, by Victor Niederhoffer
2009-10-24 — One Page of Notes on a Non Linear Approach to Price Changes, from Bill Rafter
2009-10-06 — Watching the Monetary Aggregates (Update), from Bill Rafter
2009-08-14 — Watching the Monetary Aggregates, from Bill Rafter
2009-05-11 — Bond Spreads and Stock Returns, from Phil McDonnell
2009-05-03 — Perfect Foresight Isn’t Always Best, from Bill Rafter
2009-03-05 — Curve Fitting, from Newton Linchen
2009-03-01 — On Why Dividends Are Not Optimum, from Bill Rafter
2009-02-17 — A Rowing Story, from Bill Rafter
2009-02-09 — Quant Models, from Newton Linchen
2008-10-12 — The Road to Serfdom, from Dylan Distasio
2008-08-09 — Some Thoughts on Stops, from Larry Williams
2008-07-22 — Gut Reaction to The Enzyme Factor, from Bill Rafter
2008-03-14 — They Have Got to be Kidding, from George Zachar
2007-12-29 — Nervous Markets, from Jeff Watson
2007-12-23 — Monetary Aggregates, from Bill Rafter
2007-09-11 — We’re Jammin’, We’re Jammin’, from Bill Rafter
2007-07-17 — Lessons from Muir Woods, by Victor Niederhoffer
2007-07-05 — Short Interest Question, from Ken Smith
2007-06-09 — An Observation, from Jeff Rollert
2007-06-01 — Point and Figure Considerations for Research, from Bill Rafter
2007-05-11 — Point and Figure, from Bill Rafter
2007-05-01 — Asset Rotation: Ranking Performance vs. Random, from Bill Rafter
2007-04-27 — Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics, a Query, from Bill Rafter
2007-04-15 — The Greatest Con Game, from Kim Zussman
2007-04-09 — Something a Little More Serious, from Victor Niederhoffer
2007-03-27 — Point and Figure, by Victor Niederhoffer
2007-03-09 — U.S. Job Growth Comment, from Bill Rafter
2007-03-07 — Non-stationary Covariance, from Kim Zussman
2007-02-22 — Liquidity, from Bill Rafter
2007-02-14 — The Best Benchmark, from Bill Rafter
2007-02-14 — Beating an Index, by Bill Rafter
2007-02-08 — Negative Feedback and Trend Following, by Victor Niederhoffer
2007-02-08 — Fedwatching, an Update, by Bill Rafter
2006-08-14 — Sorry Mr O’Neil, from Bill Rafter