Earlier posts · Page 15
A Heating Economy
Here is another anecdote about the heating economy. I put my old sailboat up for sale the other day. I got 2 offers within hours of putting it up for sale. I am trying to buy another boat. I saw a nice one that was put up for sale, and it sold in under 2 hours. Just saw another one… same, sold in under 5 hours. I hear the same thing from my real estate friends, and now in the news about homes going into overbids, no contingencies, panic type buying.
In past cycles, I remember real estate going up 10% a month for months at a time.
I guess the unemployment figures the other day were good and Labogola'd the market up in the afternoon, but the juice didn't last through to today.
Also, I was looking at new jet skis, but there are none in stock…all used inventory sold out. Looking at outboard motors.
Same thing, no inventory anywhere, long waits from factory.
Tweets-Apr/22/2021
There stands Mr.sogi solid as a stone wall freshly grinding' ' ' Kona coffee for the battle tomorrow.
The fangs love as they know that they can handle the credits and hobble the competitors unto oblivion . what do they call it "capturing the —
Rent seeking will occur vis planned increases in capital service rates for corps and individuals .
Rent vic being seeking galore but no insider trading happened at all time high. but quickly captured into nugatory by the 100 at Masters , the the bilious billionaires.. sogi standing tall tomorrow.
Andy Aiken ace reliever comes in for Vic on Friday April 30 and Monday May 3. Vic scheduled to start again May 4. threw too many balls dead center.
Vedi published a letter from an irate opera goer who demanded his money back for a performance of Il Trvator. Verdi gave his money back and insisted that the newspapers print the letter of complaint . he refused to reimburse for the return meal.
Victor Nasnsen following in Verdi's tradition. I got the letter with numerous impersonation retweeted by Mr. Hansen. and it was scary as I am not a farmer versed on Military matters until I realized it was a different Vic that the imprecations were hurled at.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ek7m3IS5ftI… Mr. Sogi standing tall one if sows the wind, reaps the whirlwind.
Tweets-Apr/21/2021
Hello Mr Sogi how ae you feeing will you be having some Kona coffee later today.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=I6jk0wuCyo0… profit is without honor in his own home.
I am sending out the winner of the Galton quote today. I have winners as follows: Gates Torrey, Ashton Tate, Peter J. Swan, Matthew Gasda, Zee, Henri Huws,Andy Aikon, Venkaksh, Miroslaw, John marris. If there is any other winners please send me your address.
Tweets-Apr/20/2021
A transition day to 4200 but then 4 straight breaks of round number without interruptus with terrible backdrop of apologia and exculpation from all corners staring one below the belt.
Transition from major the Sogi level to a minor in the 60's.
I receive a call to intern for me. Mr. Shilopez was my last intern and the next thing he knew he was eating thanksgiving dinner with us. I talk a much better game than I play unfortunately.
Mr. sogi battling the waves in Japan down 900.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=fhJl4JFXbw0… hard to take Kona coffee with Nikkei down 900.
Phil Kerpin ( dare one mention ) asks why all the sudden half of medias overnight came out against outdoor masking.
https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate " one has to be kidding"
All things considered, it looks good from 4115 to me but I am often wrong.
The frog jumped out at 4110.50.
Tweets-Apr/18/2021
Just to clarify the contructals up to 3200 sp futures June are bull . One apologizes for the typos.
It's still possible to make a fortune in tech http://paulgraham.com/richnow.html?curator=MediaREDEF
Tweets-Apr/17/2021
The more progressive it gets in the future the more bull it becomes up to 3400. However a look at political economists from Smith to Misses to Hayek to Mises to Ridley is sobering.
https://amazon.com/How-Innovation-Works-Flourishes-Freedom/dp/B07Y8R2GV8/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=how+innovation+works&qid=1618708847&sr=8-1a… highly recommended. Informative book with respect to progressive spending versus the market. .the example if the 30 million test of the foregoing in 1940 where the long distance plane sponsored by the former group crashed is highly resonant.
As my tweets could be misinterpreted by the pessimists and the crisis mongers, please remember my request to retweet any thing you find worthy of communication rather than liking it et al
Tweets-Apr/16/2021
Very useful interview with Andy Aiken on all things crypto.
studio.youtube.com/video/f07qX-2xIPE/edit… very greenish day so far after long scan of green and yellow up days in SP.
Spontaneous Synchronization
Jeffrey Watson writes:
I've been thinking a lot about the old physics demo on how metronomes will sync up. I'm wondering if there are any market lessons.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T58lGKREubo
Leo Jia writes
More explanations here: https://youtu.be/t-_VPRCtiUg
Tweets-Apr/15/2021
studio.youtube.com/video/yqPeBzKLR9k/ed… what happens when a streak ends? Lou Gehrig versus Pele, turn in Thursday at 520 for great interview with Andrew Aiken
Tweets-Apr/14/2021
This isn't cricket so far range of 10 ppts doesn't give top feeders any extra profits from forcing the weak out.. night eminis even less volatile and less profitable for strong.
He crossed the line of campers at Kinidergard last time. must say economy weak this time to be chosen for red team.
Anything to get more stimulus in tribute to those below the median.
Free associations —break from masters tournament via zoom, how dependent a and resentful are you, , you cant afford lobbyists, lawyer any service critics and subsidies for me, one down day, that was dirty trick against CNN manager,, truth serum with a sparrow.
Tweets-Apr/13/2021
Everything was up today. All the feedback loops are positive. the most bullish thing of all is that now the professional sports leagues and their followers in the big corps will have yet another reason to be one with the idea that has the world in its grip.
As Ridley says the leaders who show the most empathy and are against the most will win the McCartur award or even the Nobel peace award.
And the market's being up 10 days in a row, close toc lose, and 13 items open to close in a row, is quite bullish,4200 SP and of course 30000 Nikkei are in the sights and have the weather gage. and the reasons are exponentially increased by the violence of yesterday.
One demur for asking a favor. but– I have a lot of friends on this site built yup with mutual trust and I believe benefit over many year. but no matter what I tweet, I am losing followers. I believe it is because the algorithms mistakenly believe that I am not woke enough and worse yet I like baseball and the former captain of the Yale baseball team who's edging above the famous sharp golf player. For example when I tweeted that we should all celebrate the Market breaking thru 3100 in the face of tremendous obstacles. I received the greatest response ever for me over 12000 impressions. Yet I lost many subscribers that day. I don't believe it was the bears who gave up on me. Apparently I demurred to the words " stop it, stop it regarding a baseball refraction. Similarly when I allude toe he who must not be mentioned.
For example his suggestion that a traveler in the bush secrete a silver flask with a diamond in lest he be robbed and have no wherewithal l left ( but as Stigler says " beware that you don't get skinned alive in the search for more secreted valuables"
In any case the favor is this kindly instead of impressioning my tweets or liking it, kindly retweet it. In that way I will counter balance the cascade of algorithmic losses of friend subscribers and will be able to continue tweeting with dignity. Thank you.
Tweets-Apr/12/2021
Adventure Probability interesting application of probably to his one field from Hobo Adventure is strictly (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlhfh.
A review of a travel book by he whose name may not be mentioned " do not profess to receive hints for a trip (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlhp3
The top feeders in the ecosystem received a breath of fresh air from the Huang loss of 5 billion and it provided energy for the markets recent and unprecedented rise thru two round numbers. this is typical when a player is margined out bit. one should make a history of such.
Recently 2 companies whose culture was faith based have received considerable attention. Huan and Wework. One should make a study of companies whose culture is based in large part on faith and look at their sub performance. what is good source for faith based companies?
Predictive correlation of faith with subsequent performance seems mixed.
If Mr Bassett wished to be briefed on how to cross a river by holding on to a horses tail and other brilliances he should follow the art of -travel
Use number 35 for a hat. "if a traveler can swim pretty well it is a good idea to make a float when he wishes to cross a river and to lay his breat on it while his valuables are enclosed in a large turban on his head" from an ingenious gentleman whose name not mentioned.
Quote of day " I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair , but the man who despairs when others hope is admired by a large class of persons as a sage" Jsmill quoted by Matt Ridley in his highly recommended book " the Rational Optimist" .
Tweets-Apr/11/2021
Proverb of day. Be careful of the opportunity that is knocking may in fact be defeat cloaked in the guise of victory.
Shout out to Lrene Morrison for resilient performance. 5o years ago she ran two companies select a sprint and American almond and did heroic jobs.. Alan millhone played in college checker tournament 50 years ago and is now fine player and president of American checker federation.
Adventure Probability
Adventure is strictly probability to me. It rarely occurs as a surprise. I intentionally put myself into risky positions after calculating that beyond a reasonable doubt nothing can be anticipated but situations will crop up that I can survive. Before each outing, the odds of mishaps are analyzed, and for each downside the worst scenario. Sometimes it may be as minimal as leaving one’s comfort zone to injury or sickness, and through-near death or beyond. In five minutes, before buying a ticket or sticking out a thumb to the next escapade, I know exactly what I’m facing. This is tremendous relief. The adventure happens. It is examined and learned from. Probability itself is a beautiful adventure, guiding all avenues from business to sport and romance. I suggest starting with Probability for Dummiesand progressing the tenets until the mind defaults to the most rational decisions.
Tweets-Apr/9/2021
An interesting recommendation from the Hobo Michener is the most prolific producer of tomes on my passion of (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlffc
James Michener
James Michener is the most prolific producer of tomes on my passion of travel. His best is the nearly forgotten 'The Drifters' dealing with what I have lectured to outfitting stores that the world is an anthill of travelers under backpacks who, because their trails cross frequently around the globe, meet each other continually. One sees the same person in South Africa that he saw in Japan. This would seem mathematically impossible without the idea of large numbers, and is proven true. Michener's autobiography 'The World is my Home' is also worth reading. I am not fond of the rest of his works, novels, due to excessive dialogue; however, I read them after traveling to the specific regions which is a lot of books having visited 105 countries and makes fun reading.
'The World is My Home' https://www.amazon.com/World-My-Home-Memoir-ebook/dp/B00H6JHOX4/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=the+world+is+my+home+michener&qid=1617983151&sr=8-1
Anniversary of Surrender
Headquarters, Army of Northern Virginia, 10th April 1865.
General Order
No. 9
After four years of arduous service marked by unsurpassed courage and fortitude, the Army of Northern Virginia has been compelled to yield to overwhelming numbers and resources.
I need not tell the survivors of so many hard fought battles, who have remained steadfast to the last, that I have consented to the result from no distrust of them.
But feeling that valour and devotion could accomplish nothing that could compensate for the loss that must have attended the continuance of the contest, I have determined to avoid the useless sacrifice of those whose past services have endeared them to their countrymen.
By the terms of the agreement, officers and men can return to their homes and remain until exchanged. You will take with you the satisfaction that proceeds from the consciousness of duty faithfully performed, and I earnestly pray that a merciful God will extend to you his blessing and protection.
With an unceasing admiration of your constancy and devotion to your Country, and a grateful remembrance of your kind and generous consideration for myself, I bid you an affectionate farewell.
— R. E. Lee, General, General Order No. 9[
A History of Interest Rates
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
The all time usual rate is about 4% as I recall.
Jared Albert writes
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018
The graphs are a ton of fun to flip through.
A History of Interest Rates
The graphs are a ton of fun to flip through.
On Thursday, April 8, 2021, 06:54:39 PM EDT, Zubin Al Genubi <zubin.al.genubi@gmail.com> wrote:
The all time usual rate is about 4% as I recall.
Tweets-Apr/8/2021
The Archi Huang loss to credit Suisse and Nomura calls into review the famous essay by the great man of the 19th century " the efficacy of Prayer:" Mr. Huang liked to deal with those wearing cross necklaces and when a stock went up he often said " it was blessed by the Good one. On the efficacy of prayer. after careful study of the lives of missionaries and those most prayer for and the rates on annuities for the prayerful, the author concludes " it seems to me clear that all belief in the efficacy of prayer must be yielded:"
"The evidence I have been able to collect ( and it is extensive in 10 fields) bears wholly and solely in the direction( of inefficacy) and in the face of it the onus probandi must henceforth lie on the other side.
What are the chances that the SP will hit rise above 4100 before falling below 4050? a statistically study seems appropriate . of the last 9 where the SP reached a new high in the 80's, eight of them sailed on the hundred before succumbing to the 50"s.( thanks to Susan)
Susan for 45 years has studiously assisted in studies like this and now that she has 1 grand children and counting it is good to see she still can organize and memorialize a study in the spirit of the great quantifier of the 19th century.
Government Deprivation
Patrick Boyle writes:
The article states: "The offer from Washington reflects Biden’s broader goal of ending what officials have described as a race-to-the-bottom on global taxation that has deprived governments of revenue needed to fund basic services and investments."
I was surprised to see that governments are suffering this deprivation and wondered what percentage of GDP is collected by various governments worldwide. It would appear that the US Government collects 27.1% of GDP as taxes while spending 38.1% of GDP. Singapore seems to get by with 14.1% of GDP in taxes.
Here is the full list on wikipedia:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio
Stefan Jovanovich writes
As a economic denominator GDP has always troubled me since it pretends that there is an absolute equivalence between the Department of Education's paying for further studies of whole word instruction and parents' struggles to show their children that understanding the American language depends on recognizing the sounds of syllables and using the alphabet to write and read the notations of those sounds.
In this particular example, the fiction of GDP is even worse: what the Federal Government spends on the 21st century's answer to phrenology counts as output because it is paid for in dollars. What the parents do gets no accounting at all.
Assessing American public spending right now is tricky because this is the first time in our history as a nation that we have done what William James wanted and found a moral equivalence of war without the spending on arms and destruction. There have been no net deaths in Trump's war against Covid; measured against the mortality rates for an average flu year, the casualty rate has been negative. Instead of incurring debt to build ships, planes and other military assets that will be pure waste, that, unlike the capital equipment used in the "private" sector will have no residual value other than as scrap, this Federal war has spent it's money on direct transfers to people's bank accounts, raises for hospital employees, and what has been effectively a continuation of the Census' part-time employment for official counting.
There has been no wartime inflation because the largest part of the "spending" has been no spending at all but simply a non-recourse loan from the government to taxpayers that they have chosen to save.
This really is different this time.
Patrick Boyle writes:
I frequently see an argument from the left where any tax reduction is described as a government giveaway to the rich. It is based on the idea that 100% of income belongs to the government and if you get to keep any at all is a gift.
It is one thing when a government increases taxes for their own benefit, but I don't think I can think of another example of a government encouraging other nations to tax its companies. In fact trade wars are often fought over issues like this. It is hard to view such a push from the new administration as anything other than a hatred of wealth generation.
Stefan Jovanovich writes
f PB could offer a specific example of a "trade war" that became an actual war - one where the politicians spend money without limit and have their armies and navies work to kill people, it would help. I looked through the list of conflicts for the past four centuries and I could not find one that was fought over tax rates and currency exchange terms. As for how much money the U.S. government can tax, there is no limit. The Constitution gave Congress total authority with the only limit being that direct taxes had to be apportioned by population among the states. That was eliminated by the 16th amendment.
Gentrified Slab City
The signs of gentrification at Slab City are everywhere. The first to pop out at the hot spring are tattoos. When I moved here seven years ago, you could judge a person by his cover when his tattoos jumped at you like Ray Bradberry’s ‘Illustrated Man’where each represented an event in a person’s life. Most of them were of prison art, martial arts, and road tales. Now during gentrification, they represent the dreams of newcomers. Today a senior with an hourglass figure inquired of mine. I described the mouse with a smile and teardrop tells of the pathos of the road; the tarantula crawled on me from a sidewalk in Brazil; and the marijuana leaf out the pen of a Hong Kong artist who didn’t have maple in his vocabulary. ‘That completes the set of fauna, flora and insect,’ I explained expecting a tumble in the weeds until she sniffed, swam off, and had judged me less than a he-man.
Gentrification has altered Berkeley, Venice, Brooklyn and Aspen but nothing like the Slabs in the past year. I miss the old days when spartan conditions brought out that nature in the residents. When I moved here seven years ago there were no generators, few solar, next-to-no cash, which meant no booze, no hostel or Airbnb, and the green barter was marijuana. There were no cars except my rental used to chase the bad guys who robbed my property across the bombing to the Slabs where I settled because there was no place else to go. Everyone was thirsty and looked like stick figures.
The cause of gentrification is different from anywhere else – pandemic unemployment assistance. For one year nearly every resident in the outlaw resort has gone from penniless to become unemployed in a manner that was affected by the virus. Some reported they mow concrete Slabs from WWII that the tourists no longer visit, and only recently has the county’s biggest roadside attraction Salvation Mountain started admitting tourist with masks. Today there is $3 million and its products floating around the Slabs with a population quadrupled by COVID refugees from all corners of the nation. The reason is the one-square mile town via the internet is advertised as sneeze-free and rent-free.
It is disease free but the signals of gentrification are like Burma-Shave.
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Expensive cars bump along so no one walks the three miles to Niland, CA for supplies and mail. I was the sole exception until one month ago on buying with my stimulus check a CSC SG250 motorcycle. I have yet to find a town that has figured out how to take the foot off the pedal and drivers speed. One resident skinned and cooked a roadkill coyote.
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The neighborhood roads are being repaired with shovels filling potholes and rakes smoothing drives. The county has graded and widened the turnoff to my camp adding makeshift ‘Stop’ ‘Go Slow’ signs.
- Residents and pilgrims are remodeling their shanties, sheds, and trailers. Hammers pound day and night. There are a hundred new rigs parked along the Poverty Flats and High Rent fringes of town. Pallet or tire fences are being erected which prevent a cross-town walk in a straight line.
- The half-dozen new cafes and bars are doing a landslide business. Night life has turned from pages of a book to tipping beers. There are specialty shops for Slab souvenirs, sewing, and haircuts.
- Artists are always the Johnny Appleseeds of gentrification. Galleries are prolific with the wealthier buyers.
- Financially, rent and property values have increased about six-fold. For the first time cash is paid for existing lots that have no deed since the land has no owner. Land and a few remaining concrete slabs are still free to savvy homesteaders.
- Immigrants have quadrupled the population for this season. They are divided between the young searching for a rainbow at the end of the road, and retirees with fancy rigs who will try to weather the summer when the desert floor temperature reaches 160F. It will become interesting.
- Crime after gentrification drops and this town is no exception. However, here, after the final pandemic Unemployment check is doled, it will boomerang. Residents used their windfalls to buy generators, solar, quads, pickups, guns, methamphetamine, and for the first time in the Slabs heroin. The town is much populated by heroin addicts who, on running out of money, will incite the most crazed crime wave in history.
- Social life has skyrocketed. Every night there is an open mike, Karaoke, hot dogs and strings, campfire singalongs, or other venue.
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Diversification is no more apparent than in the Slabs. Every hue of color is seen with little fear of ostracism. There is no displacement, as in other gentrified neighborhoods, because this is the cheapest place to go. The youth outlook is prominent with new ideas about what is desirable and attractive.
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The town is beautified offering pleasing dwellings, shiny vehicles, rock gardens, and combed dogs. Gentrification has stopped dead several steps to the south of where I live in a shipping container on Walmart Wash with rabbits, groundhogs, owls, and rattlesnakes.
Signs aside, gentrification is a process of neighborhood change in a historically disinvested area due to a boon or new higher-income residents moving in. Most gentrified towns hang on and have led to the nation’s overall ‘back-to-the-city’ trend. But one warm summer and the halt of pandemic assistance will restore our historic conditions. The best the world offers is change and it’s a rare privilege to live here at this time.
Tweets-Apr/7/2021
https://studio.youtube.com/video/NXCRJMETC1o/edit… invasion of the body snatchers, a very progressive and therefore bull day forthcoming, odds of presidential election changing against former prez. a series of maxs interruptus.
Proverbs from two great men one from the 19th century,1 from the 20th century. the rational optimist.
Mr. tiger where have you been? I've missed you. what do you think about the quintessential American game being politicized. Larry and I would have felt this very bearish. he was " doc Greenspans " thesis adviser and gave me the skinny on its falsity.
The operatives get out of their love hotels and note the humiliations of the Nikkei below 3000 while the SP breaches 4000 with ease on its way to 5000.
To the 10 people who won the search for the great mans quote from 1883 , please bear with me as it will take a week or two to send your prize as I am just a individual trader with no back up without much mobility but as Art Bisguier liked to say " the Hindhu will do.
What he can do>> I believe this was a reference to the great Indian player who beat Capablanca without so much as considering castling as it was not in their rules.
Nobody asked me but there is something loathsome about the official saying " stop it, stop it" in response to legit query. also interesting is the officials apparent failure to remember his treasury secretary's name.
Nobody asked me but there is something out of kilter with a high official trying to increase corporate service rates over the world .
What's the name of Chinese house of rep who always knows the minutes before hand and makes big bet with exotics and where is she now.
Judy chu always seems to have skinny on what's happening with government announce. they used to follow fed open market board to the men's room before open market announcements. some one should put an hour guard around Judy chu before such announcements as coming 200 pm. One guesses she's long until close.
Quote of day " life 'in general may be looked upon as a republic where the individuals ae for the most part unconscious that while they are working for themselves they are also working for the greater good.
An Antidote to our Zeitgeist
Practical booklet for children and parents - perhaps even some traders?
From Ray Gottlieb (retired eye doctor) - on learning, memory, imagination, attention, vision using the trampoline…..
As Goethe once said. Theory is all grey, whereas life (and nature) is so colorful.
So are mkts and birds etc we would say..
Tweets-Apr/6/2021
Quote of day " the conditions that direct the order of the whole of the living world around us are marked by their persistence in improving the birthright of successive generations " they determine at much cost of individual comfort that each plant and animal shall on.
The general average be endowed at its birth with more suitable individual faculties than those of its representative in the preceding generation" a great man's quote and along with Ridley's idea and its extension the real reason for the 50000 fold a century drift.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=F7xjzAn510s… influence of baseball, the day's progressive news, a continuous rise of 150 points et al .
A prize of signed copy of education of a speculator will be given to the first 10 individuals who can finish the next sentence of the optimistic quote of the great man . send to vniederhoffer@gmail.com.
Thank the good one that the odds on the Governor are catching up to the former Prez. Let us hope that a verdictive bitter critique is not forthcoming.
There have been some good detective work on the great man's quote.// Mr. Ze suggests that I give his regards to Mr. Sogi. what are the chances that Mr. Sogi will have to disgorge his cup of Kona today?
The winners so far are Aiken, Venkatech, Howe, Owen. Ashton, swan, Pitt, Martin, two more you can post here if you couldn't get thru. but don't put any names in it, as one doesn't want to lose any more subscriber friends.
Had a dream based in Mill valley, cal.. I was not a financial adviser but a Dr. The streets outside were empty, for sale signs were up all over. no one was washing windows. and my patients kept coming in with a strange malady. their fathers, kids didn't seem to be the sane anymore.
Mr. Ze was a winner too.
wsj.com/articles/vaccine-passports-prolong-lockdowns-11617726629?mod=hp_opin_pos_2… how did Harvard let this one get out the door (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlbrk.
The world traveler and man of many talents shares what's happening in slab city https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwLtQNngcbMLNTsNDZljgWpcPTn… (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlbs3
The man of many talents and the world traveler once used the match marking sites of his day. He mentioned (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srlbs7 .
Proverb of day" speaking of defeat: after a couple of losses:: the poorest draw looks like a brilliancy: stick in there ( a very appropriate one for bears who were confronted by a 170 point continuous SP rise and be visited with a 2 point decline today.
Desert Reflections
The new year 2021 has been a time of reflections in Slab City. Spooky inexplicable reflections. I examine the mysterious to clarify and can shed some light on why six people independently told me in the past three months that they thought they were losing their minds.
A general view is the men-like mirages have been popping out of the ground or sitting in trees and smiling down at like Cheshire Cats. These are not ghostly but shimmering mirages appearing between sunrise and sunset. All of the sightings have been in South Slabs just south of the Library to the orchard power line in the vicinity where I live.
Of course, I went looking for them and, as warned by most, ‘You will not see them unless they want to be seen.’ The closest I have come to a personal encounter was one sunset as a large figure rose off the ground where I had just looked and there was none. He stood and shrugged a net-like cover off his shoulders, stared through me, and walked in a military manner down the canal road.
The spottings by others have been eerier still. Each describes them as starting at dusk, sitting or standing holding a bush, and nearly immobile moving a fraction-of-an-inch at a time through the night. They often return every other evening or weekly. Sometimes single, usually a pair, and often 3-4 of the visitors. Their favorite spots are in the crooks of trees or sitting on stumps.
In two cases the residents’ dogs have gone up to sniff the phantoms and barked, each time to recoil as if struck by a stun or ultrasound gun. One man shot a specter with his pellet rifle and found blood on the limb the following dawn. They don’t leave footprints because on close examination wear a cloth booty over their shoes.
The first person in January to tell me about the desert reflections claimed his dog barked at something in a tree, but was propelled backward. The owner walked to the tree where the thing peered down at him but could see it only as an outline of a flickering man. ‘I see you,’ he yelled from immediately below its feet. ‘Get the hell out of here.’ He returned to a fitful sleep in his truck bed, and on awakening an hour later, walked to the tree again. ‘You are trespassing, I feel threatened, and believe you may harm my dog.’ The climber didn’t respond, so he went to his truck, raised a pellet rifle, and shot it in the leg, as evidenced by the blood the next morning.
The apparitions returned to his camp every few nights through the first two months of this year. They were single, or one sunset he spotted five trudging ten steps away across his camp to a bluff. He watched through his rifle scope, where suddenly there was a whir and they disappeared. A murmur like an electric motor started and trailed toward the canal. In a few minutes in more light, he walked over and saw vehicle tracks where there had been none before. ‘I think their transportation lowered some kind of screen to hide it and them as they got in, and drove off.’
The spotting have all been in open desert with creosote bushes, palo verde, cactus, and their favorite haunt ironwoods. The next person I talked a half-mile south of me is an ex-marine who is said to be the toughest man in Slab City. He nonetheless admitted, ‘Something stood at dusk at the entrance to my driveway. I walked up in a zigzag because it kept disappearing and reappearing in the same place. It shimmered like heat off the desert floor around the shape of a man only it was chilly out. I got 8’ away and yelled, ‘I see you, dumbass. Don’t think I’m crazy.’ The man stared back calmly. ‘I didn’t touch it because either I was mad or it was military and I didn’t like how either panned out.’ He exhaled a sigh as I related that others had similar sightings. ‘Thank you,’ he replied. ‘I didn’t think I was going crazy but who knows the limits of PTS. I cross-dress to bring out my feminine side, and adjusted my bra and left him standing in the middle of my driveway.’
Another ex-marine camped on Walmart Wash explained that his two dogs ran barking up to something that wasn’t there in the night. He got out of his tent and approached as the dogs were suddenly invisibly propelled backward. ‘The single figure was like a hologram but it wasn’t. It was easiest to see in the pitch black. When I shined a flashlight it cut it in half. I stepped forward and shouted, ‘‘I don’t know if I’m hallucinating you or not, but why are you here?’ When it didn’t answer I ran away with the dogs to the canal. I’ve faced bullets and fists, but I wasn’t trained to fight ghosts.’
The Belle of Slab City and her boyfriend took it with more equanimity. They have been living in an abandoned trailer near the shoe tree, sprouting old tennies and oxfords where no fruit grows. She revealed without hesitation, ‘Something has been visiting our camp regularly but it’s not so serious. What I don’t like is it doesn’t talk back.’ ‘And,’ chimed her boyfriend, ‘It doesn’t laugh at my jokes.’ ‘Neither do I,’ she quipped. ‘It began getting on our nerves when we returned late at night and found things moved around and it sitting on a stump in the front yard. I blamed him’ … ‘And she blamed me’ … ‘But we knew they had done it.’ Each described the 1-3 spooks at a time for a total of a dozen visits as like human mirages, immobile, and nonreactive. He theorized, ‘I think they’re from Camp Billy Machen military base down the road and training, or trying out new equipment. We learned to live with them.’
Another man described the same sort of encounter. ‘It was like a projection standing holding the branch of a Creosote. I told it to leave. It was nonresponsive. So at dawn I looked again through binoculars from 20’ and could see a human mirage that was the same in appearance as the background where it stood, depending on the angle I viewed it from. I brandished a pistol but didn’t fire.’ A few minutes later when he looked, ‘A solid man in a black T-shirt, mid-forties, stood where it had been. I walked up and said, ‘I don’t know who you and your friends are, but I don’t like you.‘’ The intruder stared silently, shook his finger in the camper’s face, and wheeled away.
I talked to the Mayor of Slab City who reported from the brink of Walmart Wash, ‘I was driving on Canal Road when two figures that looked like they came out of the ground rose up covered with what looked like dead leaves and moss. But there are no leaves in the desert. I thought they might be my passed-father and one of his buddies come back to haunt me, so I sped home and grabbed a bible.’
I thought back to my own camp under a spreading palo verde tree in the target spook area where someone one night placed a Teddy bear on a tire next to where I slept on the ground. The next morning I was looking in the eyes of a cross-eyed bear. The following morning the bear’s eyes were uncrossed. Another sunrise and it had shifted so it was gazing over its shoulder at me. I thought, At least whoever the visitor is has a sense of humor and none of harm.
Since the reflections are invisible I searched the internet. There you may see the military has invented tactical clothing that reflects ambient light to make the wearer appear as his surroundings. It is called the albedo effect and one may try to see pictures of it online.
Who are they? The mayor thinks the living dead. The Belle believes the DARPA who guard the adjacent military base. The ex-soldiers are sure they’re Marines or Navy Seals. I think they are independent mercenaries working in conjunction with Camp Billy Machen. In any case, Slab City may rest assured they are being surveyed by flesh-and-blood.
Vix Part 2
Michael Cook writes:
I know we tend to go into a stock market bullish period next week but I just got a Vix buy signal which generates from recent price behaviour of Vix index. Historically if it is going to work, (it doesn't always of course, what does?) it tends to start the move within a couple of bars.
Anonymous writes
what is the green line? Also what is the time frame on each candle is it in the next day or 2 or next week or next month?
Michael Cook writes:
Daily bars, dark green signals utilize a 44 bar look back (so 2 months), light green are a 22 bar look back.
Anoymous writes:
Ok what does the green signal line mean. Is it an indicator if so what. How are you supposed to be reading it pls.
Michael Cook writes:
This came about from [what I thought of as] a nice little bit of research by Andrew Thrasher who won the 2017 Charles Dow Award for his paper forecasting a volatility tsunami. https://cmtassociation.org/association/awards/charles-h-dow-award/
The two indicators are just two ways I mapped of looking at the dispersion of Vix.
In response to Gary's point, it isnt really that brave. It gets 1/4% to 1/2% of risk and I always have the expectation that at least half trades hit max loss or, if long options, expire at nil anyway!
Vix
Anonymous writes:
Do you mind sharing what's needed to be read inferred in your svxy chart for beginners.
Gary Phillips writes
nothing particularly esoteric here, other than the dotted yellow line is a level that has shown support in the past, and old support may become new resistance. in terms of constructal law it is an area that has evolved over time to allow greater access to the currents that flow through it.
Duncan Coker writes:
Feb of 2018 was quite a move for SVXY, down 90%. SVXY is really a proxy for selling the term structure of VIX which is almost always in contango.(ie sell the distance month, cover after a month, rinse and repeat). Except when the spot and front month explode upward and go into backwardation. I did a study a while back showing backwardation of futures term structure is very bullish for SP500, but not that many trades.
Tweets-Apr/5/2021
Some numbers 60 million bird watchers in America, 5 millions members of book clubs– what other number of Bourgleois virtues can you dig up?
Apparently 20- 25 million anticipants each of baseball , basketball, and football.
Tweets-Apr/4/2021
https://amazon.com/Bourgeois-Virtues-Ethics-Age-Commerce/dp/B01NBJOANS/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=bourgeois+virtues&qid=1617546179&sr=8-1… another bourgeois virtue being tarnished or destroyed by elites, big corps, et al
https://www.amazon.com/Bourgeois-Virtues-Ethics-Age-Commerce/dp/B01NBJOANS/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=bourgeois+virtues&qid=1617546179&sr=8-1
Birdwatching, square dancing, , chess, shell collecting, baseball.. national pastimes what ordinary people do. how will it affect the markets? barbershop, square dancing, birdwatching, a visit to their national conventions– or halls of fame, frequently attended by 25000 or more gives one confidence in the strength of the common person. how will politics, infringe on baseball, the former nat pastime.
Tweets-Apr/2/2021
Homeostasis and contructal having been achieved, the 4030's seem high.
His is the worst decision baseball has made since the [1994] strike," Travis wrote. "You need an ID to pick up tickets to attend a baseball game. Or to get a beer inside once you’re there. But MLB is moving the all star game because you need an ID to vote? This is pure insanity."
Dr Cattle says he doesn't think anyone would consider him a scare monger. One would ask him if he has ever sad anything that a reasonable person would not think would have the effect of making the progressive case more rewarding and the other side more costly.
Excellent books recommended from Marginal Analysis
https://econjwatch.org/articles/what-21st-century-works-will-merit-a-close-reading-in-2050-second-tranche-of-responses
Play Ball
Since we are all in the predictions market, any early season baseball
prognostications? Rockies were able to host 21k fans yesterday and win the
opener, and driving around town seeing high school ball in action was a fine
sight.
Hire a Thief to Catch a Thief
The best person to catch a thief is another thief because he or she knows how thieves think in Slab City. But there’s a twist here. Naked at the hot spring today she revealed all.
‘I turned honest here three years ago because the pickings are so easy. Now I just rob thieves and people who deserve to be robbed.’
The practice of setting a thief to catch another is more popular than thought. The government hires a stockbroker convicted of fraudulent activities to entrap the stockbroker they were investigating for fraud. In the Slabs, where the only stock sold is in stolen articles, you may order them by cell and delivered if you know the right numbers. If they aren’t in stock, they soon are. One gentleman here arrested for hacking by the FBI went to work for them. The Imperial County, CA sheriff’s department is forever tantalizing residents they collar to snitch for them. Few do, however, there are at least eight government informants on early release from prison who have turned state evidence.
Yet the girl at the hot spring is one step ahead of the rest. She could not be persuaded to work for the police and, instead after going straight, now steals items from camps. In a couple days she returns to the camp and offers to track and recover the goods. ‘It takes a thief to catch a thief,’ she tells them. She returns the things and is given a cash reward that she never asks for.
‘So this isn’t illegal after all.’
Brain Bank from Bo
Today I am reminded of the other bank one keeps through life in his mental wallet. it is stacked with experiences that yield high dividends. Investing in experiences is more fun than money, and managing them more diverse. I was just contacted from South America by a man with three masters and one PhD who collects bugs for a living. I hooked him twenty years ago after being abandoned by a nervous guide to the Peruvian Mayoruna ‘Cat People’ who one generation earlier ate each other. They didn’t invite me to dinner, and I survived to relate the story in an investment manner that quickly spread through Iquitos at the headwaters of the Amazon. Iquitos has some heavy hitter ex-patriots whose ears I wanted. I knew the two handfuls of them comingled and with that managed the story as follows. I told being held by the cannibals to one person, then I told a tale from the rails to another, of a gorilla faceoff to another, a rip tide near-death to one more … and a total of ten different stories invested in as many people. The grapevine rattled and two days later I began getting invitations to dinner with prominent people that led to my settling in Peru for a year. It’s not only having experiences in your brain bank but how you spend the withdrawals that lead to success.
Amazon Travel
The best means of travel in the Amazon is to hitch rides on boats. The waterways of Peru, Ecuador and Brazil are highways leading from the largest interstates to the narrowest jungle lanes. When the stream gets too narrow for canoes I turn around and go back to the interstate.
The best way of land travel has been to the hike the jungle paths from village to village hiring local guides at each to get me to the next. The key is to get the name of the previous guide as a recommendation down the line.
One covers hundreds or thousands of miles of jungle in either the water or land method with replete adventures. Meals and accommodation are not a problem for there is competition to invite the first gringo the town has seen in for food or a bed.
There are no Ugly Americans in the Amazon.
Tweets-Apr/1/2021
Proverb of day. Wiswell. " weakness of character are normally shown in a game of chess" Gary Kasparov. " weakness of character are normally chown in a game of checkers" Wiswell. " weakness of character are normally shown in the game of markets " victor
SP at 3983 perilously close to 4000. what we need is service rates raised for corps and individuals ," office of Handicapper General.
Plus sa change, plus cest la meme chose "
https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2018/11/the-history-of-stealing-elections/
The Cult of the Bear”
… Was a nice turn of phrase by the Chair and Collab in Practical Speculation. Remembering the greatest permabear of all time, Alan Abelson, and his modern fellow travelers like the personage who predicted doom and gloom at a Junto in 2013 until interrupted by the Chair, how fitting that the S&P 500 topped 4000 on April Fool's Day.
Tweets-Mar/31/2021
studio.youtube.com/video/c83zprvYH8o/edit… the market drifting around one time hits, credit Suisse, serial correlation of employment.
Handicapper General on the ball, finally sets all time high in conjunction with service increases. all we need is to sustain his is for Fangs, sage, Palindrome to cheer for even higher service rates without that, regularities are bear from here.
A very progressive day with stocks according at an all time high, instead of unmentionably subjects lets have some wisdom from the great adventure traveler Keely 12:53 PM (5 (cont) https://tl.gd/n_1srl1le
Tweets-Mar/30/2021
Proverb of day from Thom Weisel– every defeat not checked today will haunt you by future defeats tomorrow.. defeats that are corrected are transformed into victories.
It was a Harrison Bergerac day with the handicapper general playing an all court game : the teachers in San Diego are teaching the migrants in school to not regulate students– the successful companies are in his sites for cancelation of their patents, and for defending themselves ( in the case of amazon) The General has in his sites the growth companies. and he refuses to hit 4000 sp until the sage calls for more service revenues compared to his secretary.
Tweets-Mar/29/2021
Xclnt article in Sunday NY times " the house always wins" bet 365 - how does vig compare? in game betting — when will it come to our markets.? what are chances that the sogi will be hit 3 times in next 10 minutes? what chances that sage will call for -before 1100 pm bet 365 limits amount that winners can bet same as robin hood on game stop . polymorphism, coefficient of relatedness.
Could not be a more progressive day and thus more bull.
Starting with Industrial Revolution Say 1759
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
How many of the great inventions were made for profit rather than government sponsored or the common good.
Peter writes:
If war is government sponsored great inventions (in some cases for profit as well) - I believe you will cover most of the great advances in medicine, aerospace, computers, etc…add the Cold War space race and most of the items in my kitchen can be added to the invention list.
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
The grand achievement of the American integrated freight system - now the world's logistical model - was almost entirely a product of the mass stupidity we call the Civil War.
James Lackey writes:
Mr Stephan,
You've got to admit that pure speculation in rail paper traded in NYC was important.
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
lets do some more justice to the influence of profits making on invention. I've only listed the ones where great industries were formed and there were patent fights. Newcomen– steam engine, John kay– flying shuttle, Hargreaves– spinning jenny, James watt steam engine, Cartwright –power loom, Whitney– cotton gin and interchangeable parts, Trevithick road steam locomotive, Stephenson–railways. Isambard Kingdom Brunel - revolvers, colt, brunel steam ship, singer, home sewing machine, Bessemer steel processing, more telegraph, Edison lightbulb Benz internal combustion engine.
Snake Boots
I've struggled with snake boots for years. The rattlers are coming out in Slab City so it's time to put on the thinking cap. I've used for snake boots stovepipes like the tin woodsman that proved to be too heavy. While brassing the bombing range on foot I've wrapped coils of detonation wire (found on the range) from ankles-to-knees to look like Magneto. When walking the adjacent orchards i wear bib overalls and tie the cuffs filling the legs with oranges and lemons for a fresh scent if bitten. One year I made leggins of duct tape and ShoeGoo. Each of these methods has had its drawbacks. This year I've tailored leggins of recycled milk jugs that deflect needles, nails, and assumedly fangs. I've been within striking distance of about 200 western diamondbacks and sidewinders in my spell in the desert, and finally have stumbled on the perfect combination.
Query
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
To what extent were major discoveries in pharmacy like Fleming on penicillin profit making actives.
Henry Gifford writes
Fleming I heard wanted the world to enjoy and benefit from his discovery, thus he didn't patent it, thus nobody spent the money to get it tested and approved, thus it was another 10+ years until it was widely available. I don't know who footed the bill for his lab or his salary.
Much work on diseases has been done by various military organizations, as "casualties" (solders becoming unavailable to fight) in-theater are caused more by disease than enemy action in many wars. I hear the US Army reportedly cured yellow fever and maybe other things.
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
I think the discovery itself is often not profit motivated. Flemming: "One sometimes finds, what one is not looking for." I suppose one then needs to create an environment whereby one can not look for what one is looking for. Variously, pharma companies have tried it, given up on it, outsourced, and required it, depending upon their shareholders patience for R&D. Perhaps SPACs are the perfect vehicle as they are blind capital? There is an argument that RNA based medicine is going to be more targeted and solution oriented and therefore might fit the capitalist mould better.
Today PFE announced its vaccine is 100% effective on 12-15 year olds and should be distributed amongst that population. Is the justification for vaccinating that group that it will reduce transmission and therefore protect the old? Wouldn't it be better to deploy any injection to vulnerable groups? 12m kids is 15% of 70m seniors. Amid a pandemic, what historical parallel is there for a vaccine being given to one subpopulation (for whom the disease has minimal effect) in order to protect another (the old)? And what about the fact that giving acquired immunity to the young might reduce their innate immune response if there is an evolved variant of the virus (or is this not a possibility)?
Tweets-Mar/28/2021
Proverb of day "exercising the right of occasional suppression and slight modification, it is truly absurd to see how plastic a limited number of observations become ,in the hands of men with preconceived ideas. quoted by Stigler in The Seven Pillars of Statistical wisdom.
The previous quote is by the namesake of Stigler's hero and my first daughter . it is applicable to most of the mumbo jumbo that is encapped by charting and other coincidences.
Hint : for even mentioning his name as the father of multivariate analysis stretcom fired me and Laurel 20 years ago.
Merlin and the end of Queen Mab - (lesson for Traders re Self-observation)
Maybe that resonates w you, too,
Savvy traders are good in paying attention how they spend their attention on, vs inexperienced traders (same most ordinary folks) who often get bamboozled by the media, the drama outside and so on.
In the movie Meriln, the protagonist kept chasing the tail of Queen Mab - but eventually he realized that Queen Mab didn't have the power she proclaimed. Right now, the wokes are a bit like emotional vampires- sorry for lack of better words- looking four pps attention and the joke is always on us - in trading and life.
A History of Interest Rates
Jeffrey Watson writes:
I found the pdf copy of one of my favorite books of all time, A History
of Interest Rates, by. Sydney Homer and Richard Sylla. I found it a
compelling read in the 80's when it first was published, and still find
it compelling today, in 2021. If one is interested in history, money,
exchange, banking, markets, interest rates, then one might find this
book to offer great value and a meal of a lifetime. It certainly gives
one pause and that there is nothing really new, it's all been done before.
http://vnn1.online.fr/Cafeteria/Financial_Accounting_Banking/
A.History.of.Interest.Rates.Wiley.Finance.Series.4th.Ed.eBook-YYePG.pdf
George Zachar writes:
It's a must-have.
I keep a copy at my office, and a copy at home.
Tweets-Mar/27/2021
wsj.com/articles/the-long-tail-of-the-pandemic-puppy-business-11616770770?mod=hp_lista_pos3… the hiways and byways shadows and lights of a great trader Larry Williams.
https://studio.youtube.com/channel/UC85UPcd0vziV3C8ShkRvfCA… hiways and by ways of a trader Larry Williams https://studio.youtube.com/channel/UC85UPcd0vziV3C8ShkRvfCA.
The Railway Man - Book
I'm a collector: Anything that abounds, may be classified, and illuminates I gather This is how i found the most unique dated railroad nails for my collection on the Burma-Siam railroad while traveling through southeast Asia. I spotted the nails as the train sided in the jungle, deboarded at the next town, bought a hammer, and walked the line for an hour pulling nails. The dates on the heads indicate the year the ties were laid, in order to know when to replace them every 20 years or so. They hadn't been replaced in Malaysia since the POW's laid them in the early 1940s. Happy with a pocket of jangling representatives from the 'death railroad', I caught the next train south to Singapore nose deep in my other passion of Louis L'Amour books.
I generally eschew well-written books for their secondary characteristic of shallowness. However, The Railway Man by a POW who could have pound the nails I pried is a solid exception. Somehow, the author is eloquent in describing his childhood passion of railroads and adult torture on the Burma-Siam railway.
The Garden of Forking Paths
The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a
problem, even when there is no “fishing expedition” or “p-hacking” and
the research hypothesis was posited ahead of time
Andrew Gelman† and Eric Loken‡ 14 Nov 2013
Abstract
Researcher degrees of freedom can lead to a multiple comparisons
problem, even in settings where researchers perform only a single
analysis on their data. The problem is there can be a large number of
potential comparisons when the details of data analysis are highly
contingent on data, without the researcher having to perform any
conscious procedure of fishing or examining multiple p-values. We
discuss in the context of several examples of published papers where
data-analysis decisions were theoretically-motivated based on previous
literature, but where the details of data selection and analysis were
not pre-specified and, as a result, were contingent on data.
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/forking.pdf
Pianist Rorianne Schrade plays Eduard Schütt’s Paraphrase of J. Strauss
Susan Niederhoffer writes:
https://youtu.be/2anJ8qHGuC4
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
How many of this typical spec party enjoyed this opus from the greatest piano player of our generation.
John Ridpath Tribute
Please consider for the SpecList
John Ridpath (1935 – March 23, 2021)
John Ridpath taught at York University in Toronto.
Like his close friend Allan Gotthelf and like George Reisman, John was reviled by his colleagues for his philosophical convictions but was over and over again voted as best teacher.
Like Alan Gotthelf and George Reisman, John was able to introduce three or four concepts in a lecture and students would come away with an understanding so clear that they would think them completely obvious.
John was formally a member of the Economics Department at York and formally taught Intellectual History but what he really taught was that a very few intellectually active, philosophically consistent people could change the course of history. His specialty was the amazing coincidence of a small group of men who created the philosophically consistent constitution of the United States, the only constitution ever that recognizes, and defends, the right of each person to have the freedom to better his or her own life. His Canadian(!) students loved it. I had the great good fortune of an open invitation to attend classes led by John during the ugly early 1970’s and, whenever I could escape work, I would go. It was like having the gas tank refilled.
Like the best of the self-interested, he was warm and generous to the point of shaking one’s head: How could someone be so much this way? For me, he was a wonderful mentor.
Hands
There must be something about hands and brain - and common sense. and well-being.
most of my male friends who also work w their hands (e.g wood work or so, when they otherwise are traders) seem to have better grasp of simple things now….the hands stand for humanity as well. etc.
the wokes love to be in their head…a lot…in a virtual world.
Are any Speclisters Significant Users of Vanguard Brokerage for Online Trades?
Daniel Grossman writes:
As a major user of Vanguard brokerage for many years, I find their newly-introduced Buy/Sell Page (for entering trades) clumsy, slow and inefficient — what computer programmers might refer to as kludgy or klutzy.
Talking to the person at Vanguard running the project has convinced me that the new Buy/Sell Page has not been sensibly designed or tested, but that it is an unstoppable freight train rolling down the track to Vanguard's thirty million customers and Vanguard has no interest in reconsideration or change of any significant aspect.
Having completely failed on my own, I wonder if a group of significant Vanguard brokerage users would have more influence, for example by writing a joint letter to Vanguard's CEO Tim Buckley or by promoting a media story on the faulty Buy/Sell page (also referred to as the "ticket" or, perhaps in general, the trading platform).
If any Speclister has interest in comparing notes on this, please contact me offline at 561-278-5646 or dvgman@gmail.com
Bud Conrad writes:
I have used both Fidelity and Vanguard for years. I have been shocked by Vanguard's lack of sophistication on many fronts, like not charging me for cost for borrowing a stock to short, and not fully understanding some risks in shorting. Their support is weak in aids for trading and research on individual stocks. They don't allow a full complex of financial trading, outside of mutual funds and stocks. No futures, currencies. I've seen them offer more leverage on margin shorts than competition, which would seem attractive. In the early days you could only trade mutual funds, unless you opened up another separate account that they called a Brokerage Account, if you wanted to trade just regular listed stocks. Tha meant trading money between accounts that would not be required in different circumstances. For the lack of support, and other reasons I have done very little trading through them recently. I would guess in these days of "free" commissions pretty much everywhere (profits only made by relatively sophisticated order flow selling, as done by Riding Hood); I would guess they have little reason to invest in new trading platforms
I think it is part of a philosophy going back to John Bogle, of keeping costs down as identified for mutual funds. In any case, they seem surprisingly unsophisticated.
But it is not my job to fix a company's strategy or implementation. I would expect that if they don't know they have a problem they won't listen to you to say they need to develop a better interface. So the above is just to confirm that they are not trying to offer trading features, and would rather just hold Grand ma's passive mutual funds. And of course, collect money from the largest passive funds like S&P 500.
Tweets-Mar/26/2021
Bonds finally going down but still 1/2 pt above 1 year lows.
Interview today with the great and multi dimensional Larry Williams today on Yelena victor blog at 500pm
Tweets-Mar/25/2021
Proverb of day. particularly apt for last 3 days - down a cumulative 2.5%, "your game is often less strong in the ending than it appears in the opening - the truth of the matter is that it was lost in the muddle".
One of those irrational reaction. tapering in play. ultimately. that's supposed to bearish for bonds as fed doesn't buy more debt and sell some. but bonds don't go down. but stocks dol. what is the reason? does the liquidity from bonds go directly to stocks?
One nost Germany just down 0.15 %. the sogi level of 3850 is in play. excessive bear in stock in my opinion, buying some before below the sogi level of 3850. one notes bonds finally down 3 tick before was up 10 tips for day. what are chances of blue day if not today then tomorrow.
If it was good for silage and vig and busted spec overnight like at 430am est then why not create some transactions and especially vig now.
The end game didn't work for 75 pts and last 3 games. perhaps a refutation of the infrastructures defense this time.
Tokenizing Physical Assets
Austin Lackey writes:
Hey Specs,
Does anyone have any experience with the idea of tokenizing fungible assets/commodities? Idea being that you have a lot tracked asset that has the ability to be used in production and/or traded. It may trade hands 1,000 times before it's used, or used by the first buyer. The token coordinates with an exact lot in a warehouse or vault, and would be "burnt" if the owner ever took physical delivery. Has anyone seen (or worked with) anything similar to this, and what pitfalls do you see? I've seen JPMorgan is doing something similar with gold on their platform Quorum.
Laurel Kenner writes:
The chair's son is an expert in this subject.
Pressure
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
What can the physics of pressure tell us about markets. when a large accumulation of sel orders is directed at one point the force /area is great as it is in a triple top or double top or break thru the sogi/ what other elementary physical principles apply to markets.
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
I can venture to say the idea of Gravity does NOT work in markets. Looking at a chart one gets the illusion of height or that gravity might effect prices but it is an illusion and a dangerous misleading illusion.
Peter DeBaz writes:
I'm not a physicist, so I'm sure that any understanding I have of physics would make a pro scoff. Financial "momentum" could be an expression of newton's first law. VN's original idea could be a restatement of f=ma, newton's second. And finally, "value" trading could be a violation of the second law of thermodynamics, which is why, one could argue, that it never worked (lol).
Andrew Aiken writes:
Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula is a direct restatement of the heat (diffusion) equation:
ut − ∆u = f(x, t)
and later refinements such as Heston, which allows for pricing “jumps”, are extensions of this equation with additional conditions.
(I prefer to price options in a way that doesn’t underprice tail risk)
Tweets-Mar/24/2021
This is interesting that I've heard from many spec that the move from the low in march is u p 50% and this is very rare and very bear. but tut have tested it. its not so rare and its bullish. Mr. Pink gives me a nice study going back to 1922. the points is that as usual the conventional wisdom and yet another reason to be fearful is totally malarkey and mumbo jumbo.
Gentlemen bout of love hotel at 430 am there time . they stayed a little later than anticipated.
On Ridpath Tribute Inbox Linden Doerr lwdoerr@gmail.com 12:10 PM (1 hour ago) to me Please consider for (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srkol9
Tweets-Mar/23/2021
Proverb of day : if I hadn't gone there:; if I hadn't made that capture: if I hadn't sacrificed a piece: if it were not for the "ifs "wed all be champions.
The stimulus twins testify today. that; must be why bonds going thru roof.
https://zerohedge.com/markets/american-health-regulators-slam-astrazeneca-releasing-incomplete-trial-data… problem may be their outsized contribution to a certain governors association.
If I hadn't waited to buy after the opening, if I had bought crude when I wanted to down 270 on the day, if I hadn't waited until cancel gardener said the economy was no god, if I had been , if I hadn't up at 500 am when the SP was hitting 3910, if I hadn't suggested that the basketball team Liberty change its name as its not in keeping with the Tripoli,, if I had bought Nasdaq instead of SP, if I hadn't been turned off buying so because the Nikkei was down big–
Proverb of day. the race is not to the swiftest, nor the slowest. the laurel wreath is awarded to the steadiest and the surest.
It was a blue day yesterday and so far its blue also. with Nasdaq in the green.
Gentlemen get computer warning from love hotel at 28300 Nikkei.
Why Has Nobody Died in Big Surf Recently?
Jeffrey Watson writes:
This Surfline article delves into the reasons that while the waves people are riding are getting bigger and bigger, nobody has died while riding them in a long time. The author attributes this to better training, better conditioning, better equipment, and new safety measures with a team effort.
Since getting wiped out in the market can be accurately be described with a surfing analogy, what methods have you implemented to protect yourself from a six sigma event in the market?
https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/nobody-died-big-waves-lately/112815?
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
Using Ralph Vince's risk management tools.
Tweets-Mar/22/2021
Happy days a Barron Coleman day bonds and stocks very green.
https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=7285spp… some time ago, Mr. Steveelison defined a flexion index as the performance of the financial sector stocks versus the averages. With a flexion in the Defense Dept. deviating his attention to diversity and progressive , this mite be an interesting play.
Tweets-Mar/21/2021
Proverb of day goes along with errors in anticipating , every aspect of day. " we all have losing days, drawing days, and wining days: not every day is a loosing day: and not every day is a drawing day, and although we may not like it, not every day is a winning. Not every day is a winning day: that's life in chess, checkers and markets.
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Tweets-Mar/19/2021
Thank you very much. I was able to shave and then have a refreshing cup with Mr. Sogi virtually.
Mt.ag trader we will pay half and whenever you're ready were game.
For those who just found my twitter I am a shooting star could be canceled at any time as the algorithm's mistakenly believe i am not progressive enough so your following me mite be ephemeral
Mr. Woland asks me to o pine on an article which says that foreign bonds a re much more attractive than us bonds. I am not an expert on this. but after a 30 big point decline in bonds I would hesitate to be overly bearish on them. the fed is in a pair of pants on bonds.
As mentioned. eventually they will have to stop raising rates as it will hurt the vote buying. as for foreign bonds being much more attractive, the yields are all equilibrated by the forward rates in currencies. so where it look like you are getting extra yields.
In foreign bonds you are expected to lose a much in the exchange rate. I apologize if this is too naïve and doesn't answer your question but I am not astute enough to digest a erudite study in a disparate field with my ageism and stroke.
Proverb of the day" chess and checkers represent our intellectual nourishment. they are available to all, and they are ours for the taking. Some take to chess, and some take to checkers, like a fish to water" and a few hardy souls like Harry Pillsbury( who could play 30 game.
Pillsbury could play 30 games simultaneously blind folded while engaged in a game of ping pong and exchanging share repartee) develop ability in both games. However, the majority of players are content to play and master one of these great games: although the masters do not.
The masters do no really master either game. Life is too short for either game) Tom Wiswell.
Big cons in the market and life. importance of reducing vig by going for big gains or losses, the best western book of all time, intro to Elmer Kelton, and a meal for limited time on triple witching hour, books my family owned the role of police et al.
Shocking decline Nikkei down2.5% over night. From re sofar green with bonds and stocks. crude say above 60.00. Ms. Harries 50% more likely to be president in 2024 than Mr. Biden according to betting odds. Harvard pretends to be caring of Asians.
The round number couldn't be prenumbered.. the prediction of an up opening was wrong by 8 big pts. grains and crude are up.. bullish vibes for the future especially next week. how low can the fed force bonds down to increase service rates and wealth penalty.
Proverb of day: when you beat players on the way up, let them down gently: you are sure to meet them again.. on the way down. and a bonus: don't play on a heavy meal: a hungry player is a good player.
Beware of getting in over your head so that your brokerage or clearing firm can close you out without notice.
Today was one of those days where you keep looking at the screen after the close, and thinking that some final ticks are missing — and sure to come in a few minutes.
Tweets-Mar/18/2021
Aftermath of open market meeting, bond vigilantes bring bond down to 153 handle. Nikkei reaches 303000 but then recedes to 299254 now. stock market has nice 2% decline form 3980 high. a bad day for woke .There creating recrimination Damocles sword hangs over chance gardener.
Dr. cattle " its a race between the virus and the vaccine, "could be better in 2022.
Any ideas that were based on the rally fizzling at yesterday's close are vitiated,
Mr. ag trader. can we interview you at 5pm Est time. We admire a man who speaks plain truth.
When I was in my prime, my uncle Roy worked for us and was then as always very facile with the computers. at age of 13 he had produced 100 games and had 10 brights from great neck south working for him. He produced voice program that was triggered by prices . and Paul Derosa said it was better than any trading manager. one of the computer vocalizations was " how Loo can bonds go " it is relevant. and we humbly request an interview with Mr. ag trader to augment the computer.
Mr James Altucher worked for us also. and I complement him on one foot he most deceptive door openers that I have ever had the gullibility to be exposed to. ill finish the story when I drink my coffee.
The funny thing about the door opener that induced the hire is that I believe MR. Alutcher would be very proud of it to this day it is. Speaking of Mr. Altucher one must point to the several years that MR. Adam Robinson worked for us. He often played chess with Art beguiler.
Its anyone's game as of 11 pm Est
Tweets-Mar/17/2021
Last on3 on 1 -22 opened down 48 big pts and then went down 88 from there that would be good for anyone including the croc hunters.
"If you cut off the tall trees the tulips will grow" chance gardener.
Thanks goodness the germens and Japanese were forewarned.
What we can all agree on is if all humans were ordered to sleep with mask's and never get out of bed , the climate would be much better and the virus would be checked. And this doesn't only apply to 2 year old but to new born and old folks also.
I am leaving the table to study checkers proverbs. you can play my hand but at your risk .
While I'm away from the table I'll have a serving of dairy queen milk shake and I'll study all Geico advertisements over the past years to see if they are the apotheosis of the sage's contempt for the common man and call for increased service rates.
Proverb of the day " if you want to be certain of your position, begin by doubting it" tom would apply that himself . In any hard fought game he'd stop and thoughtfully say " I'm in over my head . I better simplify: tom was undefeated for 25 years while he was world champion.
The funny thing is that all good checker players learn to think 40 moves or so forward. so when a good player says the ending is ambiguous I better simplify he's often thinking 4o moves in advance or several alternative paths depending which for the opponent takes. that's why checkers is a game of exactitude. to say nothing about how a good player will know the book and in the old days have a manuscript with thousands of games.
As Tom says so common is the game of checkers that its profundity if to the lay mind an unreality— a kind of harmless fiction. to the student the wonders of the board are astonishing realities.
youtube.com/watch?v=v_J_PI_vIzc… how a pair of pants swayed the folks at Fed to raise interest rates and goose stocks. a solution to climate change, what should be your stopping rule, the influence of luck. the wisdom of Odysseus, arousal of cuome, woke cubed to fan service rates.
Tweets-Mar/16/2021
Tune in to blog for relation of birds to market, arousal, eating their own, contagious of me too, Brooklyn college losing 85 to -3 to Notra Dame.
Unsolicited guidance for Elon Musk. Follow the blazing path of the Palindrome, the fang founders, the Sage, - be more progressive in your statements, shout out for me service duties on the wealthy. Hank Reardon was destroyed.
I do like a man like Mr. ag trader who tells you right out what's going to happen. don't we all. And the man that's telling the truth when he says he is not, I distrust most of all because that's going contrary to the laws of nature. said the fat man.
The fed is in a pair of pants now. they want to help the progressives along to raise taxes on the above average. so if they knock interest rates down again they can make the case that they better not tighten money or reserve rules or threaten not to buy all the debt.
From innumerable stimulus bills. all rite they want to help the current admin along by increasing interest rates to an unsustainable level( like 3 of the long bond(.but if they do that , they have to make sure that the stocks don't go down 1200 big points like last. So they must change the language or the projections so that its' good for stocks and bad for bonds. What's the sports analogy of the situation the fed is in?
One thing for sure they can count on the bi-partisan congressional budget office to predict that raising taxes will reduce the deficit. you see since they cant use dynamic scoring if taxes were raised to 100% say from their current level of 50% ,they would score it as they would score it as a 500% increase in service revenues received over 5 year. thus no more deficit. if the CDC goes along and they're fellow travelers so that's for sure, they could eliminate all humans from getting out of bed in morning and stay there. with no activity. Not only would the deficit go to zero, but the climate would get colder and carbon emissions would be lower. of course I am very woke because the more it's woke the better for stock market and most of my much needed wealth since I am retired is in the stock market held back the announcement (I think based on a little bird who knows) to sink the former prez.
Proverb of day from Tom Wiswell : no victory depends on chance; instead, skill, science, and study are the winning watch words.
Tweets-Mar/15/2021
Guaranteed to happen : the "non-partisan" committee will calculate that a wealth tax on those with wealth above 1million will generate 2 trillion in extra taxes in 5 years provided anyone who reduces wealth goes to jail. dynamic scoring will not be allowed.
Mr. Sogi do you take your Kona coffee with milk, sugar, or ice cream for a celebration.
Art disguiser in our chess games when I took four minutes to think after getting myself into an unfathomable , and untenable position would shake his head and say " now you're thinking ?!!!"
I hasten to add that I could never give Art a god game. I never became a decent chess player. I took the game and lessons up when the Palindrome asked ordered me to play a game. the Palindrome once beat Art in a game. Nigel Davies toyed with Art who by that time was in 70's
In my defense I am a mediocre checker payer and took lessons for 25 years weekly from the great Tom Wiswell.
Art won the national Jr. national open and National senior championships and beat Reshefsky a few times.
I arranged for Art to teach chess to the Palindrome and his family, but the Palindrome called a halt to it as Art was self taught and had no system although he could annotate the history of any men going back t the 19th century.
Free associations Hand size as a door opener with young high heeled blonds with dress: no dynamic scoring allowed in "non-partisan congressional budget office– importance of break thru to new high and fast conquering of 50's level for SP and Bitcoin. remember you cant.
You cant have breakfast all day . and the Sogi level can bed a magnet both ways. anyway Kona coffee all around. new all time high for SP after 30 days of waiting.
youtube.com/watch?v=Vq4ftBaRuwY… you cant have breakfast all day at 26: 54 second into performance.
Tweets-Mar/14/2021
Grocery store workers are working, meat packers are working, hell bars and restaurants are open in many (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srkchr is max interruptus bull or bear. Sennett victor blog will have answer today as well as non-overlapping expectations for key markets wen in habitat or Nas down and SP up.
One can imagine the delays that would have been visited on the vaccines if the CDC, and FDA had their way before " early Nov" guaranteed to happen: dr. cattle says that climate change will create more pandemics. 2the Fed twins will call for more stimulus. 3 the irascible governor will be given 100 times more latitude than one who was not poster boy for anti-former. 4. sec. defense diversity. While were at it, what to expect from the fed vis ai vis serial correlation on on 5 pm. march 15 pod.
Guaranteed to happen : the "non-partisan" committee will calculate that a wealth tax on those with wealth above 1million will generate 2 trillion in extra taxes in 5 years provided anyone who reduces wealth goes to jail. dynamic scoring will not be allowed.
Tweets-Mar/13/2021
Interesting to see relative performance of SP and Nas with no overlap when both diverge over last 60 day, i.e. when one is up and the other down, how does it compete to random days in last 12 years.
I am very fortunate when algorithms aren't taking followers away because of their incorrect calculation that I am not progressive enough, I am greeted by advertisements for specials offers to buy NY times and offers to buy dairy queen chickens bites, that is shot across bow.
Go to office of handicapper general for punishment https://youtube.com/watch?v=T-4LZj_jGEE… to immerse yourself in Berkshire and NY times advertisements.
Proverb of the day from Tom Wiswell " some players never fall for the same trap twice. they are very good at finding new ways to lose. ( shout out to former President, and director of woke on algorithm).
The Other Digital Asset Markets
“In a ZIRP/NIRP world, every asset feels like a [principal only] PO, and there are scant [interest only] IO assets,” notes our old pal Nom de Plumber, a senior risk manager with a penchant for suing federal agencies. “So, assets generally behave in a digital manner, ping-ponging between 0:00 (extension and default) and 100:00 (prepayment), as you illustrate via accounting treatment. And market volatility and illiquidity go in tandem. Thank you.”
- Chris Whalen The IRA Analyst
Tweets-Mar/12/2021
back to new 1yr low for bonds' at 15794 basis March.
Defense dept. fires shot across the bow at news media. maintains steadfast defense of capitol with more force than in Afghanistan.. bonds at new low. very woke very bull.
Dr. cattle lobs critique
The calm before the storm Monday
Shocking prediction https://youtube.com/watch?v=T-4LZj_jGEE… when SP up and Nasdaq down over last 60 days? when bonds ware at new 6o day low is SP bear? hey all American from Martin Niederhoffer to coach Irons at Brooklyn college. Slow steady rise doesn't force bear out the frog.
Tweets-Mar/11/2021
Good movie on video , Kurt Vonnegot, the more you lose in sales, the more I give you of other peoples money. lesson on difference between sales and profits appropriate.
Keys to game. 1 will the SP break old high of 3954 set on 2 -15 -2021.
The more woke the more bull… suppression of impairment, forgiveness for certain farmers,, steady beat of the relentless rise to new highs, long time between drinks, money to certain groups , banning of right to work.
Finally the tech assuming their rightful lead over old faithful's . a la mode de rigeur, the way woke world should be.
The number of susceptible, those not already vaccinated to woke is keeps getting smaller. will there be enough to bring the SP to new high or will the market succumb to the English disease.
Very thoughtful and valuable discussion of checker playing and proverbs on last two videos of Sennetttniederhoffer .
Tweets-Mar/10/2021
youtube.com/watch?v=jfYHXL4p8GA… the more stimulus bill. the more you lose in 2020 ,the more I pay.
Find out about the romantic life of the 3 greatest composers of the 19th century.
"Ex food and energy" 1.4% for hermits. Speaking of hermits a helpful hint from Forgotten Books
Forgotten Books https://forgottenbooks.com/en may be the answer to the rest of your free time from the distant past. It is online or paper books from 1920 or prior to the 1. everything's groovy. perhaps a Barron Coleman day, everything is woke.
Adding insult to injury Roger Clemens
12 OF 16
Scooping up a piece of Piazza's shattered bat, Clemens tossed it in the direction of the former catcher, making it look like he was intentionally trying to hurt the guy—which was probably his plan.
Beethoven trained a telescope on school so he could be sure that Karl towed the mark and that the school treated him well. Have often followed on those footsteps to make sure my kids were being treated well by their school. before that my father did the same for me " The principal always said to me " you should know better your father is a cop" the principal of my high school tried with all his mte to get me not admitted to Harvard. he ran a competitive tutoring service.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jfYHXL4p8GA… the more stimulus bill. the more you lose in 2020 ,the more I pay.
Forgotten Books
Bo Keely writes:
Forgotten Books https://www.forgottenbooks.com/en may be the answer to the ret of your free time from the distant past. It is online or paper books from 1920 or prior to the 18th century. The books are free or cheap, electronic or paper. I've read about 50 mostly first-hand accounts. At the home page just select the topic and up pops the selections.
Peter Saint-Andre writes:
Related, I maintain a website containing literary and philosophical
writings (often liberty-related) that have passed into the public domain:https://monadnock.net/
Most of these texts are optimized for reading on your smartphone
(although I'm still splitting some of them into smaller chunks).
Suggestions are welcome for the roadmap of future publications.
Tweets-Mar/9/2021
247 million false entries memorialized on big platform for Prez. 45- 69 million false entries memorialize for Prez 44. Luv Governor mentions before 25 and after 45 shows similar bull bias.
Advice from two greats: if you want to be creative "Walk " preferably in the woods or forest. Beethoven and Brahms waked an average of 4 hours a day in Vienna woods. school boys used to think Beethoven was madman as they met him murmuring and gesticulating on their way. The school boys met him going to school and the coming back from school. he yelled and howled as he was thinking of music because he was deaf.
"A spike and channel bear trend" https://investing.com/analysis/emini-big-reversals-in-middle-of-3week-trading-range-200566012… there's hope for counters as long as wsj espouses —
Tweets-Mar/7/2021
"Caught my attention " , tightening, ' go big ", 350 billon Argentina, 15 weeks paid leave.
What could be more woke https://federalreserve.gov/foia/files/chair-yellen-calendar-062014.pdf… camp kinderland " go big ".
Tweets-Mar/6/2021
I'll take a red sandwich on green. " life is tooo short to wake up in the morning with regrets".
This will go down with " baker did it" in the annals of disintegration. " the former president did it "
Tweets-Mar/5/2021
K SUBSCRIBER, 6 minutes ago
These guys are clueless. No inflation?? Slack labor market???
Visit the world of manufacturing, with chronic shortages of everything, including skilled labor, and prices on everything going up 5-30%
Likethumb_up3 a very sagacious wsj reader.
I feel much secure with the thousands of national guard guarding the capital. it makes me doubly happy that there will be a stimulus bill. let us hope the statisticians return from camp kinder so that they can put the final touches on the need for employment.
The most bullish thing is the revulsion that thinking people will feel towards a certain letter to the wsj blaming others for the plight we are in now. this will love a significant number of voters who are needed to reverse the turn to agrarianism.
youtube.com/watch?v=2iqqAIZpp2c… protection from the putative takeover of the capital by the Guard.
The market is content with breaking on constructal level and one Sogi and flirts with second Sogi only to demur for some Kona coffee.
We let it all hang out. Japanese love hotels, big minima, forcing the weak out , total 8% move today better than entire move for year. all the woke things that fostered market along.
Tweets-Mar/4/2021
Nikkei refuses to stay below 29000.
Hello Mr. Sogi, perhaps we will meet in virtual Japan.
Free association https://google.com/search?q=camp+kinderland&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS920US920&oq=camp+kinderland&aqs=chrome..
69i57j46i175i199i275j35i39l2j0l3j0i22i30l3.20819j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8… the bls, ,weak hiring, Texas - Missouri ,plot that endangers capital and guard, not eating.
Hello Mr. Sogi waves had a undertow. only 2 down to 1 am and 1o up after a bad previous day before employ I forgot to say that everything depends on the Nikkei. ca they keep the support as they did yesterday before capitulating Nikkei low is 28300.
Key to the game 1. the Japanese lose face by allowing the Nikkei to stay below 29000. 2. will the people at a certain bureau put the final touché on the number to insure that the stimulus bill is imperative especially planned parenthood and the relief for gov workers. Gov workers with children going to school online. Should they receive paid staycation for life like deserving farmers of color
Tweets-Mar/3/2021
Finally the chance gardener and fellow camp kinderland begin to realize at the 159 handle for bonds that something is not rite. at least it wont hurt the stimulus . that's the game I think.
Triumphal Times 2021 Out
https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/articles/media-releases/credit-suisse-global-investment-returns-yearbook-2021-202103.html
I haven’t Read or Studied the Real
Rates return graph of the triumphal trio yet but every since their work appeared in 1997 which I first popularize dand reviewed they have been presenting work that pushed the expected return down by 5% or so a ear. I call it the English disease. I have tried to counter this but they always have a new argument. they are like shiller in that content. I am not as facile now as I was 20 years ago, but I will find time and they ability to understand their real return graph and then will serif it part of the English disease. However, no one has more respect for the triumphal trio than I .
A New All Time High Again: A flirt with the round of 4000?
A flirt comes back, a true one does! But it goes when the host is convinced that it has come, for good. Who is a better flirt than Ms. Markets? So that was putting the Chair's Theory of Rounds with some colour.
Now, there have been so many who suddenly found this pattern, that pattern, this yield that related contract justifying all together that the end of the world is now confirmed. But then the whole art and science of taking risks is that the Ms. will never allow many or any to be actually ever benefitting from what is confirmed. She is a flirt, she will come back again & then when the whole world will be again convinced its never going to end on a breach of 4000 there … she will go again.
Value vs Growth
If ones decomposes the driver of value or growth what will find is that it is all about price. the fundamentals change very slow and by small amounts. here is a good academic paper that analyzes this link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2083166
In other words, value was driven mainly by long-term (>5years) price mean-reversion. the reason for the underperformance over the last decade(s) is that long-term price reversals have not worked.
this paper as well https://www.q-group.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Linnainmaa-Dissecting-Factors.pdf
Tweets-Mar/2/2021
https://jameslindlibrary.org/articles/charles-frederick-fred-mosteller-1916-2006/… attribute to a great m an and teacher. who had interests in poker, chess, magic, and folk dancing. the consummate teacher. a humble man. my thesis adviser. His autobiography the pleasure of statistics. His autobiography https://amazon.com/Pleasures-Statistics-Autobiography-Frederick-Mosteller/dp/0387779558… so many good people , so many memories, always ran through lectures a for 2 hours before giving them. was chairman of 4 Harvard faculty schools, started out in social relations with Talcott parsons. wrote many papers on runs.
Lessons from sports statistics: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254330967_Lessons_from_Sports_Statistics
goodreads.com/book/show/413617.Good_Bye_Mr_Chips… a English counterpart without the 555 contributions to research.
Tweets-Mar/1/2021
(Free associations) three strikes, " may I take the liberty ", governor, Dr. Seuss, earmarks, Nikkei down 330, bonds at161, diversity in boards, assistance from Dr wife, "the incorruptible" ,contagion . crude below $60.00, resolve of chance gardener for a day.
Maybe This is Shadow Momo
Outperforming the S&P 500 with 50 Consensus Stock Holdings of 40 Large
Hedge Funds
• This investment strategy holds a maximum of 50 consensus stock picks
from 40 hedge funds with more than $3,500 million Assets Under
Management.
• Changes in the holdings occur only every three months when the end
of the quarter 13F filings becomes public information; the latest date
was February 15, 2021.
• From 02/24/08 – 02/19/21 this strategy would have produced an
annualized return (CAGR) of 18.7%, significantly more than the 10.7%
CAGR of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
• Here we report the most recent holdings, and also list the stocks
removed and added as of the week ending 2/19/2021.
Book Recco
Gary Boddicker writes:
I recently picked up https://www.amazon.com/Cattle-Kingdom-Hidden-History-Cowboy/dp/0544369963 on a recommendation from Ryan Holiday’s excellent reading newsletter: https://ryanholiday.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=dcd3642d86121fbcaa9914228&id=03b4ecb2d5&e=879beeec35
Panoramic history of what could be America’s first nationwide industry with entrepreneurs and risk takers for days: the decimation of the buffalo, cow town stock yard developments, “assembly line” manufacturing predating Mr.Ford and his automobiles, refrigerated rail cars, “dead meat” exports to Europe, Delmonico’s, a great big commodity speculative bubble fueled in part by global investors in the US industry…plus the real skinny on life as a cowboy, cattle drive misery, gunfights (or the lack thereof)… very well written, engaging tale, with characters galore. I’m halfway through and it’s not easily put down. Highly recommend.
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
If GB's review were on Amazon, it would join many others. Mine would be tucked away at the bottom and would probably be rejected for being unkind to authors …..
Knowlton has written a lazy book. To think that the beef ranching, stockyard and wholesale butchering trades were "America’s first nationwide industry" you have to know less than nothing about American history. Mr. Swift Cowboys and cattle drives were a minor adjunct to a secondary business for the railroads. They disappeared as soon as the spur lines were built out. There is also some pure crap: "A direct link connects vigilante justice on the open range and U.S. involvement in Vietnam." I recommend a few minutes reading about the SRL as an emetic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swift_Refrigerator_Line
Gary Boddicker writes:
Stephan- in fairness to the “lazy” book, there is a good discussion of the SRL development you highlight including Swift’s fight with the rail lines, who preferred perpetuating the more lucrative live cattle shipping they had been enjoying, and his ultimate victory. The “emetic” was included. In fact, the major railroad’s market hold had to be “overcome” at a couple junctures in the book…usually by utilizing smaller competitors.
The discussion of Swift’s further battle to get “refrigerated meat” accepted by East Coast butchers and consumers reminded me of my formative years when my father was fighting a similar war to get IBP’s innovative “boxed beef” accepted in the same protected, unionized,”mobbed up,” markets:
https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences-and-law/economics-business-and-labor/businesses-and-occupations/ibp-inc
As to “nationwide,” That wasn’t the author’s claim, but my hyperbole. It’s possible I spent too many Saturday mornings in Denison packing houses, Sioux City stockyards “smells like money”, and Plainview feedlots and I was willing to give “Beef” an outsized designation having stumbled across this history. Still have a little romance in my heart for that tough industry, its people, and the western geography. 
Also love a good steak.
Vietnam? No clue. Haven’t read that yet. Agree that smells like BS more than napalm smells like victory. Does he mention Robert Duvall’s hat and the Air Cav?
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
Thx, GB. I am being unfair. And I have no good excuse. The author's first book about the Florida land rush bugged me because the author made a reach to compare that episode with the 2008/9 bubble without regard to their relative magnitudes. (If any real estate bust in the 1920s was comparable, it was Chicago's). So, reading your comments, I thought "here we go again". Flipping through electronic pages and using my own version of the Hitler test (bad thinking always gets to some mention of the Fuhrer or Viet-Nam) is not reading or thinking or even vigilante literary justice. Time once again to wash out my smart aleck mouth with a mea culpa
Gary Boddicker writes:
No worries Stefan, always enjoy your perspective…also, based on past posts, I am quite certain you’ve forgotten more of American History than I’ve ever known. I hope to continue to learn from you
Tweets-Feb/28/2021
The Sennett niederhoffer regularity will appear on our zoom pod at 12 noon Sunday est.
Here's a good reference to Zellner on simplicity https://amazon.com/Simplicity-Inference-Modelling-Sophisticatedly-University/dp/B0087INE3M… as limned in the Sennett podcast.
The palindrome's philosophy was " what can you do for me tomorrow regardless of the past".
https://studio.youtube.com/channel/UC85UPcd0vziV3C8ShkRvfCA… astonishing 5 day expectation, rasion deter for school closings, increased chances for stimulus bill, simplicity is setting up trades and backswings, preparations shout out to Jack Barnaby 1968.
Pres makes at least 2 references to running again in 2024. how non-woke. but bad for mega chances, thus good for market in long run.
Savvitt game me lesson at century club and emphasized the continental grip but I think the most important part of video if loose swing, and they left out the torque leaning back.
Tweets-Feb/27/2021
Looking at the 10year bond rates I see a roughly 1.5% yield and another 0.9% from rolling down the yield curve. Total carry ~2.4%
If you adjust that to match equity volatility you get multiplier of 2. So on vol/risk/duration adjusted basis bonds have 4.8% yield
Looking at 4.5%. I see it stands at 4.5%. Bonds have become again an equity competitor. Perhaps this is the start of the move of tectonic plates a thoughtful post from a though person Mr. Theo.
Turns out there is a very significant and useful regularity for the first day of month. however, despite the strenuous and perhaps not appreciated efforts of Ms. Sennett and myself, very few people are viewing our pods relative to our efforts. thus, if Ms. Sennett will.
Contact me we will put up a very short special Sunday video and report the regularity on our podcast.
Desperate old lions fighting to hold off the young lions gradually making them obsolete. The regularity is not obvious and I have not seen it elsewhere
Mr. Kennedy Fuld Jr. asks who is MR. Sogi? he is a man for all seasons who surfs and observes much about the gravitationally impact of 50's , and loves a good coffee among other things. he is interviewed in our videos.
Mr. Tdt aske me if I have been drinking. I never drink within weeks of trading because drinking like orgasms makes you too loose and too easy going to ascend the hard road to trading for a profit.
Statistics Question
Barry writes:
Hello Victor,
Hope all is well. I have been enjoying the YouTube videos you have been putting out.
I was wondering if the rules that apply to normal statistical tests should be as constrained when applied for financial data?
For example when comparing the mean returns of weeks following drops greater than 30% in something like bitcoin compared with it's weekly returns excluding those weeks if a tests value of 20% would be consistent with random as one might conclude with most other sciences or is that an indicator there could be something more meaningful to investigate?
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
Thats a very good question and related to it is the supposition that a 20% prob of chance occurrence mite be more p reductive of a regularity in the future than a 5% chance statistics I'm posting your query to the spec list since it doesn't contain any meals for a day but is a meal for a life time.
Fed Model
Looking at the 10year bond rates I see a roughly 1.5% yield and another 0.9% from rolling down the yield curve. Total carry ~2.4%
If you adjust that to match equity volatility you get multiplier of 2. So on vol/risk/duration adjusted basis bonds have 4.8% yield
Looking at the sp500 fwd earnings yield I see it stands at 4.5%
Bonds have become again an equity competitor
Perhaps this is the start of the move of tectonic plates
Tweets-Feb/26/2021
Hello Mr. Sogi I'm delighted that you're doing some evening surfing..is their disconsolate or hope among your colleagues in Japan?
An ecological fact. " mosquitos have amplifiers on them".
The NEW Rotisserie-style Chicken Bites are perfect alone or any way you want to eat them. Finally, unbreaded, tender, juicy chicken that doesn’t need anything else to stand out. #HappyTastesGood
470.3 the new ads of the sages firm, not as "humorous" as Geiogo ads.
"At least we were able to press stocks back up and out supporters are coming back " heard with eggs benedict as former chairman shook their heads/ "" but unless we get the bonds above 16000, well look bad".
google.com/search?q=zillow+stock+price&oq=zillow+stock+price&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i20i131i263i433j0l8.16159j1j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8… great move to buy homes direct and price action good but not enough diversity.
Tweets-Feb/24/2021
A note passed to chance gardener before hearings., somethings not rite? you cant just support the them. "Show them your force" captain Aubrey.
What tom would whisper to chance gardener " we're in over our head . better simplify. "" interrupt eggs benedict breakfast with woke counterpart?
Professor Biden can you catch a basketball with chop sticks? The professor matriculated at mit hoping to play on the basketball team. but he couldn't afford the price of sneakers and mit policy prohibited any financial aid to athletes.
Bonds creeping up from 16000 handle, lunch interrupted in fed dining hall? A visit with Pres adviser? what will happen to all the earmarks and pork in stimulus bill? The more woke the more bull.
One can pretend to see all and be pleased that bonds are back in 16000 handle proving that a man who doesn't know gnp for the last quarter and has no training in e economics can not jolly bonds to ever higher levels by emphasizing that the stimulus is needed.
Recall that on a one day binary forecast the red days are most bull for Sp ( as documented on Tues feb23 video apologies for the tec glitches on Feb 24 video but what was said about frog and constructal numbers and Japanese resilience is timeless despite my lapses.
Tweets-Feb/23/2021
There stands Mr. Sogi teetering amid the waves will the Nikke tide be helpful?
The Japanese never give up. the bull market remains intact.
Helllo Dr. bejan. have the yellowed you to see any basketball lately.
After 3 bad years in early 2000's QQQ outperformed SPY by a large amount. this chart is referred to in our video giving up dates of performance of best stocks versus worst. growth wins out. good thing to do is to replace spider with qqq I think
Welcome back to Dr Castaldo from Italy after 5 months with his parents. the chart and data is his handiwork.
youtube.com/watch?v=acVLNQG_YVo… Nikkei never surrender, Nasdaq versus spider.
Insights into startling offensive behavior, gestalt psychology, the Nikkei never surrendering a 30000, growth versus value over 20 years, very woke day good for market, and prediction as to when 39000 will be breached.
Must have been some heavy broker would have liquidated you when margin reduced to 3000.. but never complain you would have had 2 minutes to get a bank wire to them at 940.
Tweets-Feb/22/2021
youtube.com/watch?v=PmIh7JtzaYM… the trickster.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=w8uL-lxVpwE&feature=youtu.be…
Video contains constructal sig of Nikkei, binary splits predicting SP next day, results of buying the best, shout out to everchanging cycles, predictions meals for lifetime.
In their quiet and respectful way, Nikkei refuses to sink below 30000. also a lagniappe the absurdity of sheller analysis, no interest rates, 10 years moving averages as absurd predictor of current earnings, part hole correlations, always bearish non wonder won the prize.
what is a Recent
Big AI writes:
from 2005 (may have been posted already):
Does Trend Following Work on Stocks?
Cole Wilcox, Managing Partner Director of Research & Trading Blackstar
Funds, LLC
Eric Crittenden, Blackstar Funds, LLC
https://www.cis.upenn.edu/~mkearns/finread/trend.pdf
Over the years many commodity trading advisors, proprietary traders,
and global macro hedge funds have successfully applied various trend
following methods to profitably trade in global futures markets. Very
little research, however, has been published regarding trend following
strategies applied to stocks. Is it reasonable to assume that trend
following works on futures but not stocks? We decided to put a long
only trend following strategy to the test by running it against a
comprehensive database of U.S. stocks that have been adjusted for
corporate actions. Delisted companies were included to account for
survivorship bias. Realistic transaction cost estimates (slippage &
commission) were applied. Liquidity filters were used to limit
hypothetical trading to only stocks that would have been liquid enough
to trade, at the time of the trade. Coverage included 24,000+
securities spanning 22 years. The empirical results strongly suggest
that trend following on stocks does offer a positive mathematical
expectancy, an essential building block of an effective investing or
trading system.
Jared Albert writes:
This is obviously the hardest(or most expensive) part of a study like this:
<<<Data Integrity Data Coverage The database used included 24,000+ individual securities from the NYSE, AMEX & NASDAQ exchanges. Coverage spanned from January-1983 to December-2004.
Survivorship bias The database used for this project included historical data for all stocks that were delisted at some point between 1983 and 2004. Slightly more than half of the database is comprised of delisted stocks.
Corporate actions All stock prices were proportionately back adjusted for corporate actions, including cash dividends, splits, mergers, spin-offs, stock dividends, reverse splits, etc. Realistic investable universe A minimum stock price filter was used to avoid penny stocks7 .
A minimum daily liquidity filter was used to avoid stocks that would not have been liquid enough to generate realistic historical results from. Both filters were evaluated for every stock and for every day of history in the database, mimicking how results would have appeared in real time.>>>
The data vendor they used has these prices listed:
PowerST will run on any Windows computer.
Cost:
The cost of PowerST is:
Initial Purchase: $25,000
Monthly Maintenance: $1,000
Calculation Engine Source Code: $100,000
Does anyone know of an economical source for at least merger and delisted data is accounted for:)?
This site has delisted symbols so long as they are not reused ex:http://www.eoddata.com/StockQuote/NYSE/LEH.htm
Tweets-Feb/21/2021
A good read for publics stranded in last year's habitats.
coreknowledge.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/CKSci_G3_U3_Habitats-and-Change_SR.pdf
It is distressing to have a 2007 article posted when I wouldn't and couldn't talk to the author because of positions. I held that would have been fodder for the adversaries. I have learned my lessons in 1997 and not sold put since because of the conspiracies among the 2 or three market markers and their control of the margins required and the high bid ask spreads I of 100% or so in getting out of positions before expiration my injunction never short anything has deep resilience. I try to maintain a dignified and helpful posting and it is unfortunate to be greeted by miscreants who bear a grievance against me.
The older we get, the thinner the skin around the privates. However, I suffered a stroke 3 years ago, and my ability to play, piano, racket sports and type is grossly and egregiously curtailed.
It's good to know that I have so many friends on this list. I try. I would recommend that all look at daily speculations com for some fine work on the buying the best companies. It's all on the spec list. To get on spec list send me request with your email.
Tweets-Feb/20/2021
I will offer a prize money of $1500 to the best study of the performance of buying the best performing individual stocks in a period. Do take account of survivor bias. I make the same offer to the spec list bu gramercy keeps preventing me from sending it.