Earlier posts · Page 18
Tweets-Sep/21/2020
it wasnt able to brind nasdaq down more than 1/10 of a percent
an attempt to panic longs that wasnt able to bring down more than 1/10 of %… .. tremendous rallies in nikkei and finally germany dax comes into consilience with a 4% decline much better than its low of down 6%
More Go
So far today, bonds up stocks up….after a 10% correction.
I've been playing a bit more Go Make. There is a funny switch between offense that switches back and forth between players, and also within the mind of the individual player. Go is a very binary game, yet as Wolfram, and Vince have demonstrated, even a simple binary function can create complex situations.
Speaking of stops, former List Member Seattle Phil, who also wrote a book on risk management, said that they will always find your stops. Like this morning where they searched out the round to clear off stops before taking it up. The conclusion back then was that leverage was the key to risk management rather than use of fixed price stops. Time stops for the expectation period and leverage were the key to risk management. I think this is where long term systems have a weakness.
Margins and Vol
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
Some brokers are increasing margin requirements ahead of continued and increased volatility forecast during the upcoming election.
Some funky stuff ahead. Watch out.Interesting mid day turn Monday. Can't wait til the end of the day anymore with everyone jumping the gun.
Wonder again if 3350 will be a swing point.
Jordan Low writes:
To be fair, the letter from Interactive Brokers explicitly mentioned the election as a rationale.
What Goes Around Comes Around in Slab City
The wheel which revolves in Slab City because it is it is small what goes around comes around quickly.
One months ago, a bag lady who lives on the Highline Canal took a chair and rope to the bank under a tree where a fisherman watched her make a hang-woman's noose, throw the free end over a limb, step onto the chair, put the noose over her head, and waited to see if she was really going to do it. After she jumped he cut her down.
A week later, she was pushing her cart past Salvation Mountain and pulled our town chef unstuck from the June hot asphalt who had collapsed on his bicycle with groceries.
A few days later, the fisherman's puppy came due for euthanasia at the dog pound and the chef gave him $100 to rescue it.
Then he was robbed blind and hungry until the newlyweds gave him part of their corona stimulus checks.
Yesterday, he got his unemployment benefit as a caterer and made a big meal for everyone on the canal.
The wheel is like a boomerang here and we have many happy returns.
Tweets-Sep/20/2020
i meant to say that Europe is close to a high down only 2% as is Japan where everything else is on fire. the challanger is increasing his lead to 10% from a 7% % one wekk ago with 110 million wagered so far.crude bak to recent his
rich where Fox refused rto allow talk about the bilious palidnrome's bearish views was the proximate cause of the declien on tripple witching day
all the destoying of the economy and protest until after the election sothat nobacklash willl appropriately emerge and the ublic wont see the hole weve descended into. you ask me " what does this have to do with market" i say the interview where Ging
perhaps they dont wish to be cheerleaders for fall anymore. same with Fox news. they dont want to say Palindrome supporting "protests" by sponsoring "Protest {DA and cetain orgs. Why is it a variation of the threat is worse then the execution or just prudence to halt
there's something incongrous about the bilious dta service . usually they have have 90% of thier articles talkiing about how the market is much tooo high. and is ready to tank. especially nasdaq. but now not a word about the Correction in nas down 10% from recent high
Tweets-Sep/19/2020
teh congeress will never again be non-woke since two woe states willl be added immediately and filibuster willl be eneded aids of all the ruined cityies willl ultimately create high interest rates again
the other bilious billionaires a re quiet for the same reason that all their fellow travelers inow to tone down the violence before the election. they have it all saved if theylose and if they win whc is now highly probable then service rates willl go up on everyone and
smsxing not to see all the bililous billonaires crowing about the nasdaq being in a CORRECTION. perhaps the recent publiciyt that Fox wont carry anythigh negative agoainst the palindrome has chastened them for a while lest they seek th e real reason for alll the wealth abrod
the incumbent increases its lead slitley to 10% in the betting odds during the past weke. some of the worst declines in sp hasve occured in conuncition with a 20 day low in conunction with triple witching hour. consider 10 -19 87 wuth a nice3 25% declines on monday
yet eyrioe us diwb 2% firm its high and niikei is down 1.5% from it s hihg. curde is near its 20 day high, and euoro is at its' big 20 day hihg. gold is down 5% fom its high, and bonds are relatively subdued about halfway beween it s receent hgh and low about 2%..
it is interesting to contemplate the tangled bank of prices in various countries adn market. the sp and nas ad at big 20 day lows. b with sp downw 7% and nasdqq down 10.5%
Tweets-Sep/18/2020
"but charlie" illll h you already had yourcoffee" " Illl have it again then after i feed the sheep"
thanks again morning kona tasted go0d
Economics of COVID-19 in Slab City
Economics of COVID-19 in Slab City
This disease COVID-19 that we will be studying for decades by the unique way of its presentation, of all the different angles, should not be overlooked in Slab City. The economic impact in this California tourist town has been to stimulate it to unprecedented heights with not a single cough or case on record. The outlaw resort for decades has subsisted on low cost living in a nearly cashless barter of, first white (methamphetamine) through two years ago when marijuana became legal, and now the green of weed. With the virus cash cascaded onto the concrete Slabs which are our living quarters this modern shanty town is enjoying its first boom since WWII.
There have been two steps to this turn into a cash society. The first was the blanket issue of stimulus checks three months ago. Issue does not mean arrival here since half the town is on the lam from the law, three-quarters has no ID, and nobody know's anybody's name except by road handles. Suddenly with the stimulus it became important to have a bonafide name, even if no identification or mailing address. Where there is a buck and a need there is a way among entrepreneurs, and outlaw doesn't mean a person doesn't have the IQ of a CEO or is all bad.
A typical moll I know opened up a stimulus check service to advise and enable even the highest-as-a-kite client she had sold drugs to. In a week she was overwhelmed with 20 Slabbers who suddenly remembered their real names and didn't require an ID but needed her other wherewithal. This was the stimulus package deal. She took $200 of each $1200 stipend and had the money direct deposited into her account under her name. Verbal agreements are binding here since otherwise the debtor slides into hell with the little shoves of one's dog being stolen, home burned down, and walked to the Union Pacific RR track with a shirt on back. The moll never defaulted and built her business as a hundred times as much money poured into the Slabs for the past three months as has in any previous era since General Patton marched 100,000 troops through here.
That left $1000 for each Slabber in her account that she mandated that she take the first $100 to buy each a tent, Coleman stove, and sleeping bag to kick-start them back into normalcy. She took the loss from her personal drug sales to them with the commission and joy of seeing the scheme work. She used the $200 cut from each to outfit her own camp with bigger solar, a generator, and freezers that any clients could use throughout the summer. That left each with $900 in her account owed to others that she doled out at $200 per week, plenty to live on in the Slabs, for about one month.
The rest of the town went to hell in a hand basket by spending all their stimulus on drugs in one week, but it was a memorable one.
The second stage of our town boom began two months ago with the announcement of unemployment benefits to any Americans whose jobs were impacted by COVID-19. Suddenly, a majority of the citizens became self-employed at inventive professions such as selling Slab trinkets to tourists who had dried up, or an improbability of landscaping the slabs with social distancing. Again, where there's a dollar there's a way, and I interviewed three employment benefit consultants who self-taught themselves the application process and offered it to other Slabbers charging on average 10% commission. The government sends to the money to our Niland, CA PO boxes or general delivery, and as with stimulus no physical ID is required. I labored through the application in two hours to know that anyone with a SS and driver's license number will get the huge payoff if he uses the right words. In Slab City these phrases are self-employed, less than $2500 income last year, backpay starts in March, live in a resort town, and there are no more tourists. The job here doesn't matter as long as it relies on tourists.
No one I know has received less than $14,000 each which is more money than most of them have seen in their lifetimes. It arrives daily n the form of EDD cash cards which can be used for cash or as a debit card. $6000 has been put on each of them for backpay, with about $200 per week added for another eight months. Slab City has become a large sampling of what an individual does when he wins the lottery. Some Slabbers have bought property elsewhere and moved out. Many have purchased new used cars. There are lots of new generators and solar panels dotting the Slabs. One person bought a pound of meth for $2000 and another a pound of heroin for $14,500. It is pure and straight from Mexico so is given away or at moderate prices to first time users, which creates a habit, and these persons will be rich because the government has sponsored a drug epidemic in the Slabs,
The dogs are too fat to chase me, no one wants to leave their new AC to accost me, robberies are diminished, and the streets are vacant as if an apocalypse had struck.
The impact of COVID-19 on our immune systems means nothing to the Slabbers but the economic and sociological results are something that will be written and remembered in our history for years to come.
Tweets-Sep/17/2020
Mr.. sogi now that you foud some big saves at Kona are you stopping for some good coffee. or will you be having the green tea instead
are the waves breakign well in Kona mr. sogi or willl you be waiting now for the evening surfing
Tweets-Sep/16/2020
chance gardner decides to hedge so that his chances willl be chancier either way and it bak fires
moves that disturb your position the least disturb your oppoent ( the other sides ) the most
illl go out on a limb against the drift today and calll for down from the open
https://vox.com/switched-on-pop/21437085/beethoven-5th-symphony-elitist-classism-switched-on-pop… not april fools
Another Indicator
Duncan Coker writes:
If you are an ESG investor you may want to move on from this post
Casting aside market morality, if one is looking for a proxy for election and Covid volatility with some leverage kicked in, look to prison REITs. Most are still down around 30% ytd. The sector plunged in March with the rest of the market, but has just stayed there. As background, the previous administration wanted to end the use of private prisons, but this was reversed
in 2017. Private prisons still make up a fraction of overall prisons and some operate in a hybrid way with public guards and employees. A democratic win in Nov would most most likely curtail the use of private prison. Also Covid has been a big issue and the main reason for the declines. The sector is despised by lenders, pension funds and big banks, so a contrarian play. If things improve however, yields are double digit and an ethical case can be made that private prisons do a more humane job than public for prison administration. If you are truly against mass incarceration, which I am, then vote to end the WOD, ( but that is a longer post). CXW and GEO are two of the larger REITs. Both have announced dividend cuts. As always the big question is how much bad news is priced in. A spike in either direction would be a harbinger for election results or progress on Covid, and not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Kim Zussman writes:
A bolshie sweep would combine prison and build the wall funds. Quickly finish walling off the country but repurpose the direction: in only.
Tweets-Sep/15/2020
a very mixed day with a weak close considering the bullish enthusiam with which it started. bonds relativly stable and crude at 20 day low.
From Chinese Netizens
Leo Jia writes:
They teach us to be patriotic, to follow the leader to study communism, sing communist song, and swear by the communist sign. But did you know, the author of communism was a German, the composer of the communist song was a French, and the creators of the communist sign were Russians? Did you also know, while teaching us to be patriotic and communists, they deposit their huge amount of money in Switzerland, send their wives, lovers, and children to America, and buy houses in Canada and Australia?
Peter Ringel writes:
Its good to be patriotic.
The dirty little switcheroo the China gov does (and similar regimes have also done in history) , is to link patriotism to communism and the party.
Obliviously China's culture is millennia older than Marx and his intellectually confused followers.
You hinted at the hypocrisy. Did you know that Marx traded and failed doing so ? Growing up in the east-block and learning about this fact late - I got an erection 
! Of course the bastard did .
Tweets-Sep/14/2020
a very mixed day with a weak close considering the bullish enthusiam with which it started. bonds relativly stable and crude at 20 day low.a very mixed day with a weak close considering the bullish enthusiam with which it started. bonds relativly stable and crude at 20 day low.
how are the waves out 100 feet mr. sogi.
apologies again i';;; try to make it up ini the future
Tweets-Sep/13/2020
the lack of triple intentions in modern fencing and i lament the lack of it in markets
at least let me introduce you to Aldo Nadi who some consider the greatest fencer ever,. https://youtube.com/watch?v=eygHpbYI6bs… tiple intentions is faking a move then the opponent knwos you fake and prepares a defense and knowing that you prepare a thir dmove adjusted. nadi laments
years. alll quantitaively. thus i know all the regularities between markets of the past. but the problem is that the regularities dont continue. they're subject to ever chanigng cyces or multipe classifications or triple int.entions. who wins the over. unde I meant well
apologies. i wasnt expecting an up 25 opening. i ws expecting it to go up this much but after down.. now i have a predction down from 3348 basis december down until 5 am then up i dont put much validity to this prediction. i am an old man and have been trading for 60
Tweets-Sep/12/2020
there are other articles in this 28 page paper including a 8 page halll of fame((9 such a paper is not known for being unfriendly to the busiesses it writes about
8..hers why indoor dining in the city migth not hapen any time soon..9. homeless advocates thereatend to sue over racist nimbyism(safety is its top priority but the residents near the hotels that homeless have been movedd into compalin about drug acitivty and loitering
4 smal business need a rent lifeline5. dinapoli outliens extreme budget s enrarious for city and state( the s tate and city are facing billion dollar gaps) 6. new yorks s borrowing conundrum(city deperate for money) 7. rate of workforce drug use hits 16 year high.
interesting article in current issue of crains new york business 1. shark week produ on hook in bak rent as lawsuit says. 2. ambulance companies feel the pain( more amd moe patients are desirign to be trated at home3. melrose credit union sans while ceo 8 mm sght
for thsoe who interested. i will have a very important market predicition early sunday nite
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_N._Goetzmann
the woke proposals have a 44% captial gains rate and this would reduce economic activity like the lockdown and refusal to allow schools and restaurants to open so that non-woke will lose thereby garnering the attractive females
hte Palindome because their bearish views are to prevent others form competing for reproduction.. they refrain from noting the 50 00 fold a century drift in stock returns and the detrimental effect of increasing the service rate on capital gains to 44%from thh current 20% as s
it si said that Ohenry could win a challenge " give me any number of person and I will make a short story out of it> i often make the same challenge. give me any book or scientific study and I'll show you how it affect markets. Okay, y ou cant trust the bilois bills site or
foundation for al studies along with the triumpahl trio and loorie and Fisher. it turns out that he is also an expert on cowboy lit where I first came to notice him. i query him does he agree with me that Elmer Kelon write the best western including The Time it never rained
have eminent Mr. Smiith prepared to testify. please feel free to use my chambers wihtout asking. I felt the same way when William Goetzmann honored me by following. his work on the history of stock prices and money is vereminent and important providing a periodic table and
to round up and brand mavericks. it was also a good way to find a noose around neck. this post was inspired by a typial jury trial in the west where a circuti jude presided. when a eminent statesman entered the courtroom to testify the judge typically said " we are honored to
big cattle men occured after the civil way when they could brand all the stray cattle that had excaped from ranchers who werent able to keep them enclosed during the war. as soon as the fortunes were amde the cattle men banded together to make it illegal for new ranchers
how to explain why the bilioous billionaire are almost unifromly bearish and in favor of increasing service rates for the rest of humanity. a nice exmaple is contained in elmer kelton's thhrid book in the hewey calloway series, THe Smilng Country. most of the fortunes of
Male Dominance - an overview | ScienceDirect http://Topicswww.sciencedirect.com › topics › computer-science › mal…
The term male dominance evolved in the twentieth century as a conceptual label to characterize the unequal power relations between men as a group and women as a group.
Armed Rebellion
Russ Herrold writes:
Our professor and others have had a point when they said the
purpose of the 2nd Amendment was to support militias.* cough * ehh? If there was a point it would be anti-historical
The federal and state gov'ts did not need an enabling amendment to do something which they could (and did) already do as a matter of simple statutory law (anticipating 14th amdt
incorporation)) The purpose of the Amendments (thought unnecessary, by and large, by Madison) was to _fence off_ from first the Fed'l,and later through incorporation, the states, certain actions,explicitly, for which underlying power were not explicitly granted anyway Simple farmers did not really trust an approach of statutory construction, of 'expresio unius, exclusios alterius', in Latin-ifying the concept. The simple farmers said: When you mean something, sate it directly, rather than relying on lawyer's word games US v. Miller's Progressive mindset at the US Supreme Court was clearly 'bad law' from the onset, but 'stare decisis' is tough to overcome. It took Heller v. DC, and MacDonald v. Chicago to chip at that bad foundation
What they left out was the fact that owning a firearm was as much of a natural right as speech and property ownership. The purpose of the 2nd Amendment was to remind Congress that, since militias were voluntary, men would have to be self-trained. This may be some modernist attribution of purpose, but again, this is anti-historical.The idea of Americans as individually spontaneously rebellious in the name of liberty is historical blinking. Genuine rebellion in the U.S. has always been a matter of organized use of long guns and artillery barrels, not random murderous gestures with handguns.
Not sure that it was not tried, albeit ineffectively. The Whiskey Rebellion showed the futility of opposing set positions as an approach; the murder of veterans during the 'Thirty's Bonus March and encampment made it clear that set positions were a disaster. The weaker or 'civilian' side are left with 4GW Readily reloadible handguns are a relatively recent innovation, really only coming into their in the post-Black Power, cartridge based era (Yes, yes, I understand that the .45 Long Colt started life as a B. P. cartridge, and was really stabilized in the M. 1911 with modern protellants)
The blood in the streets that the Rothschilds saw are an indicator will only have come to the U.S. when Antifa or its opponents start using volley fire, ummm no, no 'volley fire' in the future. Rather: 4GW tactics,really starting in the run-out of of Lexington and Concord,and continuing development thereafter on an ongoing basis.
see: With Fire and Sword: The Battle of Bunker Hill and the Beginning of the American Revolution Nelson, James L., Thomas Dunne Books Combine that with the emergence and development of formal sniper doctrine … see the Finns almost mechanical approach, and and the more dispairite reply of the Soviets in WW II …showed that MOUT operations on an opponent who is able to 'melt away' into a surrounding population Followup reading as to what US Civil War II may well look.like:
. The Dirty War, Martin Dillon — the IRA vs the brits
. Fry The Brain: The Art of Urban Sniping and its Role in Modern Guerrilla Warfare (n/a Book 1), John West — from an analytic point of view of the sniper … from the TX Bell Tower shooter, a startling and 'eyes wide open're-examination of the LBJ assassination, and on to current Middle East theatre ** recommended **
. Red Sniper on the Eastern Front: The Memoirs of Joseph Pilyushin, by Joseph Pilyushin (biographical notes)
. Sniper on the Eastern Front: The Memoirs of Sepp Allerberger,Knights Cross, by Albrecht Wacker (and from the German side — mnore formal, less effective)
. Jack Hinson's One-Man War, A Civil War Sniper McKenney, Tom, Brand (US Civil war …. somewhat light-weight)
. Marine Sniper: 93 Confirmed Kills, by Charles Henderson (Carlos Hathcock, Viet Nam era)
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
I never quarrel with RPH but a few clarifications. The essay was about what the people at the time called "The War of the Rebellion" - what is now known as the Civil War, not the War of the Revolution. That remains the only time U. S. Government authority has been successfully challenged, even temporarily, by people taking up arms. Volley fire was the standard tactic of both Southern and Northern armies throughout the Civil War because the limitations of muskets remained what they always were. The awfulness of what happened to Pickett's men was caused by its use by the Union defenders who used the tactic first with cannon and then with canister and long guns at 300 yards. Even in ambush the Revolutionary Army regulars were taught to use concentrated fire which was the French doctrine that Washington knew firsthand from its having been used so effectively in the annihilation of Braddock's army.
The performance of the militia in the Revolutionary War was so notoriously bad that it was used as a tactic by the Americans, who would place the militia as the first line with the instructions that they could fire one volley and then skedaddle through the ranks of the regular army behind them. This worked to perfection at Guilford Courthouse where the Brits ran and charged on horseback into a murderous concentration of fire because they thought they had broken the Americans and did not need to pause and fire their own volley.
The Second Amendment was adopted at the end of 1791 as a sop to the wounded pride of the state militias that had proven once again to be useless.
https://ohiohistorycentral.org/w/Harmar%27s_Defeat
The U.S. would keep its regular army of volunteers AND the militias would be allowed to pretend that they were still the backbone of the American fighting spirit; and the obvious fact of life - people would keep and bear their own arms - would continue as before.
Tweets-Sep/9/2020
wish i had never shorted or sliced
the djokovich disqual wa a woke thing and figurative speakig it set the base for wake up calll for those who dont lwish socialism
bovelllsays his is where suckers get long. i m a sucker by that definition and others
nce move of 3% up in sp from low of 3295 below constructal
first 10 day minimu yest
first 10day max yest in sp for 5 1/2 month. icumb moves up to 9 percent deficit
Tweets-Sep/8/2020
a great contributer to our field and pioneer in applyign self taught statistics to actual market hassadly passed away the story of his contriubtions to value line is a heroic novel
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=wm&ogbl#inbox/FMfcgxwJXpMRdZJFLLnksvmwVCtMXdnG?projector=1&messagePartId=0.1… agreat contributer to our field and pioneer in applyign self taught statistics to actual market hassadly passed away the story of his contirubtions to value line is a heroic novel
staying power to finish treatment. so no wonder astra zenica and alll the others have not shown significance. they fave an impossible hurdle so the woke can be sure of no scucess until nov.
wheareas if the plavebo was 50% effective the standard error is 0.5, si it wlll need 2.5. times a s many observations too reach signifcance. say 100000 in the trial to have a chance at significance. of course its imppssible to get this many with no other disease and stayng
ssonofocantly bett erhtan the placeboll. that's almosot impossible to achieve with a placebo that creates recovery in say 90% of case. the standard error of a bonimial proprotion with a 95% prob is 0.2
inn addition to doing everythihg they can to sin pres.t dr. cattle's endless warniings and rule that tenant donthave to pay etc.,, the 95% THAT CONTIRUBUTED TO dems resorts to some suble sinking. i pt out that their tests of a succesfu vaccine is one that amongh thiings
reason it went down today was dq of djovovich. ready to go up now that woke can cry "correction"
They may believe that state governments and mayors political opposed to the president have in many places manipulated a public-health crisis for their own political ends: enforcing lockdowns that suppress economic activity in the hope of weakening the president’s support"from wsj
Tweets-Sep/7/2020
if you look at shot that hit blm referee it was not an act of violence or anger but more like a little frustration and hitting the ball bak to ball boys. a cuomo set up to create unhappiness and miery beofre nov. as such it is bearish
of course if game had been in front of liveaudence no dq as 20000 fans would have protested. uforutnatley he was not a man of color and blm was refereeing
why is hitting a referee unintentionally a dq event. happened to referree when anderson hithard serve that hit line judge in head off a wall uintentional wy do rules protect the officials a not have anythign to do with sportsmanship.. same reason market down 2 dys ago
only 1/4 the volume of a normal day today, if person of color had threatened tokilll linesman, she wouldnt have been dq.. same reason taht riots are called protests, and schools are being close is why djovoich dq.
an ugly rise. challlenger widens lead to 11 percentage pts verus 4. just three days ago.. djovovich falls victim to pc. as line judge weaing blm pin an.. whi is ridiculour rule noot based on intent. he his an easy frustrated shot that a non- pc person woulld have bloc
Tweets-Sep/6/2020
the sheep are vulnerable to coyotes
would this ruling bave benn any different if an outstanding womens player of fashion had let the racket slip on head
oxnews.com/politics/erin-perrine-the-atlantic-report-anonymous-sources… with propaganda lie this against incumbent.. ny tiimes ( did they buy ebony/" report that his campaign paid his legal bills,ultimately coommon sense will prevail
Mrs flagg to charliiiie in time it nver rained : mrs " you already fed the sheep " . charlie " " illl buy more :… doe s a man always have to have a wife that tries to rein him in"
nevr a penumbra
looks good
phil kerpen points out that deaths from covid are vastly overstated. colorado by 1/3 . mose than 50% of deaths are at nusing homes. number of deaths decreaisng to close to zero in many states. this info is suppressed
sys soti=uation to get worse. 7 tehn rise was due to hinese optiosn trade: the point is with overwel=helmingly negative coverage like this fromo teh 3 major media influences no wonder inumb defecit is increseing to 7% and rising versus 4% a week ago
billious headlines; trump loaded plane with art on return from paris.2. weimar republic 7 reasons why trum is worse: 3 hot to attack Trump so it hurts: 4 boats sinik in trump raly. manuchin says trump very peased with how it sgoing and wants skiny stimulus- powelll sa
Tweets-Sep/5/2020
youtube.com/watch?v=tbTaD2C08xU… an auto da fe on Friday
in incumbent win ther will be war says the media. challlenger follows guidance of leading from behind of G and S ," stay Close to your desk and never go to sea, and you may be ruler —"ugly day for bond s finally succombing a stocks were getting killed and crude at new lo
what a day by 1030-1130 et, both sp and nasdaq were down 9% form their close two days earlier. then sp came bak thru the sogi number of 1450 at 3 30 pm only to fall 1 % in the last 30 minutes. the media is abuzz with acclaim for war if theincumbent
Tweets-Sep/10/2020
drunkenmiller forecasts that the next several years in stock market willlbe challenging. a mania that apparently didnt arabesque to his participation
same story woke hope amid refusal to score a nice comebak… challanger revulsion when social distance from teleprompter
Trailing Stops
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
I would like some advice on trailing stops. Lets say a guy took a trade, 3 down days, buy end of day, hold for expectation period of 1 day, sell half, set a trailing stop on balance. Where? low of day? break even? 20 period ema? And how is best to move it up. Low of day? Ema? Fixed trailing? I realize it is not efficient but selling at the expectation period would lose a run like last month from 3000 of 16%. Things seem "trendy" now. Appreciate any good ideas. Can this kind of thing be tested? I doubt it, because normal tests don't seem to catch trends as they tend to mean reversion. Thanks.
Sushil Rungta writes:
I use a % trailing stop. Usually, once I buy a stock, depending on the stock and the expected volatility, I place a trailing stop anywhere from 8% to 25%. That way I do not lose any of the upside. And the % trailing stop keeps moving higher if the stock keeps moving higher.
I am a novice and not meant to be advice. Just shat=ring what I do
Ralph Vince writes:
I think it depends on the particular market. For equities, I've found nothing worthwhile that constitutes a mechanical trend following methodology I would risk money on
I have a lot of experience looking for it though! Perhaps a temporal solution is manifesting in the quities indexes right now, which will oly be evident at some future point in time?
Experience in the markets teaches us nothing, and I doubt it has any value whatsoever. If fact, there is a toxicity to it in that we begin to believe we know something that day one participants aren;t burdened with.
We are tasked with finding which of the 9 sections of the tic-tac-toe board a ball will (randomly) appear in. We choose the center. It comes up randomly in the NW corner. (It must like corners?). We choose the SW corner, it shows up in the NE corner. (see, it likes corners,) We select the SE corner. It comes up in the middle (Ah, two corners, then a middle…..) and on and on ad on.
Forever.
"I have a good sense for where that ball will come up as I;ve been doing this for years." Or, better still, "I have a good sense of where that ball will come up - it;s mathematical! It;s somewhat deterministic," (as said the man walking into the convenience store to pony up for his next magic powerball number combination).
In markets, If you find something that works, and is working, it's about to evaporate. This is why I've migrated to longer and longer-term views on things, as it results in a longer time until things evaporate. Everything we think is true in the markets, is a delusion of our own making. Even the notion of drift: in equities, vanishes - first, for decades or so, then, with the next fall of an empire. The probability of a drawdown, of any given magnitude, approaches certainty as the length of time given for it to transpire increases.
Most things in markets (as in all of life) that are real, often tend to be dull and tedious, require work to get our arms around, and reside nowhere near where we are looking.
Ralph Vince writes:
The point is everything we are looking at in terms of timing mechanism is ephemeral. I like longer-term models because they might outlive me (e.g. be long S&P500 when 90 day bills / S&P500 div yield >1.8, which has batted 9 of 9 since 1980, below) before collapsing. The flipside is a much shorter-term model that will work, until it doesn't, then won't, until it does again!
I have never encountered anything in terms of equitisinexes that works in terms of trend-following, save for the notion of long-term, upwards drift. But as I say, once you are comfortable that something will always work, it is likely near-finished. The buy all dips / drift works in our favor mentality is not immune, but has had the good fortune of being a lugubrious beast.
Tweets-Sep/3/2020
for a while. listen g to G and S
even with the 120 pts declie they wetn up 30 full pts in last half hour. never did that belfre especiallly befr emloyment. nlw spp at 3943 down 18.5. but wit an up last half hour , one finds a topsy tursvy worthy of g G and S. no predcition
a prrety keetle of fish. alll stock markets moved from all time hiighs to 6 day lows. bonds strangely olly up 1/4 still 5 fulll points from the high. crude periloulsy cloose to 4000 pres deficit in puling moves to 6% from 4% . stocks down a good 120 pts but but
fly in ointment today is crude at 30 day low
Tweets-Sep/2/2020
keys to game ? spf up 10 of last 11 days by at least 5. challanger back in his cellar. dollar moves from big low to 5 day high. crude from40 day hi to 5 day low. dc votes to remove franklin and other founders . the hate America gains while spf hits 8 of last 9 all time hi
corrections dow is at 29000. what are chances when it is at a 9, like 1000 away from a round nuber of 30000 that it will hit 28000 before 30000
dow is at 2900 what are the chances when the dow is less than 100 awa;y from a round number like 3000 that it willl hit 2800 before 3000,.. a qu ery for Dr. bejan also for memorializatiion in his next book
if you send me your address on private meassage on twitter that will do m my email is vniderhoffer@ http://gmail.com an address to me in any fashion will requited with book. there was goo dinterest and work inthis contest. welll do ti again
ill put you on spec list and once you give me your names , (perhaps on spec list) ill send y ou a signed copyp of book.
because the re was quite a drift from 2011 there is chance that there is a slite difference .. several winners gotu the same answer of 4% by simulation or resampling. the winners were messr. doomlog, zhou , saad, silla, woladdon,f, Kuba,,pinony. nice work.congrats
what are chances that he would pick them out of hat in exact order of batting averages there are 24 permutations of batting orders . only 1 would be in order of lowest to highest.. that is 1 out of 24 ratio, it wouldn't matter if be picked the four out of 2,000, same ratio
suppse a baseballl manager of color had to pick a batting order. and he had 4 hitters of color . and he knew nothing but their batting averagers and that they alll didnt pan to kneel.the manager threw their batting averages in a hat and picked them out of hat
the least i can do is to send those with a correct answer to the 4 ascending prices problem a signed copy of education of a specualtor. as grandma moses said about her painting s "perhaps it will be worh a doollar some day" welll cut the entries off at 1 pm et
there are 2490 days of closing prices for sp sinc e beginnning of 2011. what are chances that if you pick 4 closing prices at random/ that they will be in ascending order? correct answer gets a free membership to spec list
what are chances that challanger survives 60 days according to betting odds. about 95% as the next liekely challangers add up to 2%
Tweets-Sep/1/2020
good antidote for those who wish to tear down Jefferson and Washingotn memorial and who constantly bear
http://dailyspeculations.com/Letter/songs%20of%20speculation.html#oldheart… spare me from men who are old hearted experts
spare us from idiot learned intellectuals . technial analysts , dr. cattle, im;erial models, paul volker, the sage, the palindrome, Mqrx
the horse thief 's partner tried to spirit him way as he was swingng but his neck was broken anyway
a very green day today making up for the 1 of last days that was not all time high
dolllr at new low rel to euro should be good for sp to stay above constructal
Tweets-Aug/31/2020
better late than never. challe=anger lead to less than 5 per. can public be fooled as to late swing of challanger to anti- protest. chief strategist sanderssaid that " riots are normal. and they are fault of rich' you cant keep a constructal down
Tweets-Aug/30/2020
nikkkei up 370 exerts bu llishinfluence on sp . overrid bear of 2 day befro.. i take loss
rep now favorite to win senate. 90% o f money bet lst 2 weekson incumb. now incum only7%behind. dems understand now that viollence beofre election is bad for them. will ave to concentrate on masks. a visit to ny shows like invasionof body snatcher never this up 2 days befr
Tweets-Aug/29/2020
monday 4-29 or wed 4 29 or thur 5-28 .. now the last day of motnth beu 2 days beofre end of month
what happens when stocks at a high from close of 2 days befr end of month like wed. 4-20 or mon 4 -29 six observations since 2019. very bad to open
Tweets-Aug/28/2020
actua payments of Sevice was 5% on reported earnings. many experts on spec list have alerted to other sopisticated techniques . and not least is projecting a mien with urging higher service rates for himself espcialll compared to secreatry and others
article on the Sage on woke org maket watch. theytalk about valueof compounding. but leave out most imprtant part for Sage and former friend of mien.What can reduce the Sevicwe take . eg/ no dividends on comanie sage buys. Service rate on Berhisre itself. last time
query 1. tase of nov protests if icumb wins. query 2. who pays these "protesters"
nikkei verey down and exerts pernicious influence on rounds in sp
keys to game. dollar at low. round at 35000 just 5 away. incumb narrows lead to less than 10… cahllenger bike riding 2 weeks ago. five 20 day highs in row. bonds begnngn to creep back from low n ow up slitely
multivariate time series program invented by susan and me and run on the trs 80 since 1975. he did a great job and every encomia Mr. Eisenstat hurled at him has proven true. he had a good forehand in tennis also and played many a fine 1 against 2 with Prof Pennington as par
looking at expectations we find 16 of last 20 up is neutral to bull for next few days and 17 or last 20 up is slitely bear. we take this opportunitye to shouw out to Mr. Tom Downing. we hired hiim on Mr. Eisenstadts recommendation and he updated and coded our ogirinal
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1298964525799137285… the bespoke scientists have an interesting chart which shows that the % of days u p in the sp is at a high. it gives us a chance to try a few scans. what is the expectation given that x out of last y moves are above a certain mag. we find e.g that
Tweets-Aug/27/2020
interesting to see that challanger qualifiers add u up to 1.2% inchallanger team. both bloom and harris and clinton have 0.3 % chance in bertting pool.. apparently there is stilll 1 /40 chance that challanger doesnt run
a procustean bed on one hand bonds at 90 day low at 17527 abd 5 seoarate cobsecytuve 29 day highs in row. but stocks so near constructal number of 3500
market making a monkeyout of me. half hour prices have susbumed over 1000pts or 3%of change so far. bonds at minimum bearish but stocks stopped at 3998 three times isnt cricket.. has to be sonstrucal number soon bit bonds bear
one believes that the face saving institution purveying,assuaging to the woke of chance gardner will hav a detrimental impact on stocks as bonds hit a 60 day low, the bond vigilantes coming back to guard against evilit s in the world
but one should always memorialize the Markman is one of most dynamic and excellent wrtiers and bosses that one has ever had ( allthough the number of bosses is 1 not to diminishhim
thatshouod be will constructal of 9400 inexorably attract stocks beof re bonds sink it. i remind oneself of idiot i used to work with at msm who alwys wrote is lucent a growth stock or a value stock?
keys to the game. will the final round counstructal sink the stocks beofre teh huge 80 day minimu in bonds exerts its perniciousincuence as money bet on pres at 45% chance of wining aproaches 11000% of last two wekk betting
and thus chance gardner an amiable ignorant well meaning woke succombs to the pressrue for diversity by sinking bonds
“Right now, this VIX warning signal is flashing again as it did earlier this year and prior to the (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srcjna
promise me that after destroying my books you willl never use mumbo jumbo charts and specious correspondences to 1987 and 2000 to make market predicitons and thaty
Tweets-Aug/26/2020
but if any of them seem to countenancee charting or trend following please destroy them
alll good things must come to an end and I bequeath my books to the spec list
going bak to 1996 i find only 4 occasions when such consistent bullishenss to 1230 after a few 20 day maximums
amazing come bak and move to be supressed by Lott. two ]weeks ago chall had a 24% lead with 78 million bet. now its 12 percentage pts lead with 86 million bet. more than 100% of the money bet the last tow weeks has been on incumb
hows the surfing in Hawaii mr. sogi?
market must make amends for giving public a break in eveniing by smashig them today in the am
its one of those days where the market ah made it impsosible for the public to lose more than their wont by being toppped out by institutions and top feeders with infinite cap;ital. the biggest move between halflhour prices over nitie was 1 fuoo sp point. they wiill have
coorrection maraket has set exactly one 20 day maxima on 250 occasions. and it's 60% to be up 2 days later. in accord with randomenss
the selfish market in its infinite machinations has set exactly three 20 day maxima in a row on 83 occasions since 2011 . it has set exactly one 20 day maxima on 546 occasisons . this would seem to be inordinatley less than randomness
Tweets-Aug/25/2020
three 20 day na=maxima ina row. if this a bear markrket for humans, give us another dose of it soon and sustained
Bloomberg FOLLOW US GET THE NEWSLETTER In describing this year’s stock market, observers have been big on (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srchoi
https://foxnews.com/politics what better indicia is tehre that dem governors wish to sink the eocnomy and create misery before election, the combarise governor is captured in a characteristic sinking pose
finally an antidote to fed buying unlimited spending for woke
bonds at 178.14
bonds begining to show signs that unlimited gov spending willl raise interest rates
Tweets-Aug/24/2020
No mre wavese these: there were ravinies and undulations coming form alll the pharma. yes they pay our salaries but stilll we have to work toogether to sik the eocnoy"
" do we have one pereson who voted for prez among the 35000 empoyees. its mite be good to trophim out"
" it makes us look bad especiall after the orange man said we waanted to hide good events so that the wokewoudlwin"
heard at the fda// " how canw e suppriess all the good news abot the vaccines coming form the companiies when we wish to bury the economyespecialllly beofre the repub convention" its likea groud swell. first one then the other
One Day After Zero Hedge, FT “Unmasks” SoftBank As Call-Buying “Nasdaq Whale” | Zero Hedge
This is interesting.
[obviously if accurate and Zero Hedge can be a bit iffy in that regard]
- doesn’t this smell like a modern version of Leeson, Sumitomo, Hunt Brothers etc, forcing a feedback loop to spin so fast it eventually gets out of control?
Anything to Avoid Real Work
I am late (again) on delivering an historical essay on Panic/Depression of 1837-1842 to an electronic publisher so what better way to prevaricate than offer further political handicapping and personal confession. First, the confession. I have been utterly wrong in thinking that election prediction samples had to weight the survey data by Party ID. That only corrupts the data and obscures the actual information. If you weight voter file data by race, gender, education, income and age, your sample automatically and accurately calculates what the partisan split will be.
The grumps have become a persistent minority in samples. The most reliable likely voter sample I have found on the question of "Who Do You Expect to Win?" shows Trump - 45%, Biden - 41% and 14% - "Undecided/Will Not Say". 1 out of 7 people who can be expected to vote do not want to offer an opinion about who they think will win - not who they want to win or who their neighbor wants to win but simply, who will win a 2-person race.
These grumps are the loyalists to the newest political party - the voice of "unfavorable" opinion. They don't like anyone - ever; and their opinion is entirely like Fred Silverman's (who died this year - I put the link to his wikipedia entry at the bottom) brilliant analysis of programming - the winner is the show that sucks less.
The issues - and events - decide what the criterion will be for sucking. Two months ago, it was Covid-19; and former Vice-President Biden received almost all the "unfavorables" votes. Last month the issue was the economy; and Trump still sucked more but not quite so much. This month the issue is "law and order"; and Biden is in trouble.
The race is turning into a repeat of 2012. You have an incumbent President with average "approval" ratings who is wildly popular with his base and hated by all the partisans of the opposing party. Among black and white liberal likely voters President Obama had near unanimous approval; and his voters turned out. Trump gets 90% of his "base" of conservative/Republican/Republican-leaning voters. Like Obama in 2012 Trump has all the money he needs and he has a thoroughly professional campaign organization that has had 4 years to prepare for getting out his vote. (The black male turnout in 2012 is a record that will probably never be broken; mothers and grandmothers literally dragged their sons and grandsons to the polls to vote to re-elect their race's first President.) For the people Mrs. Clinton named deplorables, this is one more time to make all those superior college and graduate school-educated voters reach for their hankies. Those deplorables have made the educated Republicans wonder if they should join the rest of the credentialed and become Democrats, and some have; but their numbers have been replaced by middle-aged and older black men and Hispanic men and women who have no fear of people of their same age who wear MAGA hats. What is proving decisive is the Democrats' loss of less than graduate-level educated suburban women; the promise of BLM rioters to bring violence to their neighborhoods has been devastating to Democrats' otherwise very good chances of picking up these voters. It has certainly not helped with these women, most of whom work and have children, for Biden to mumble about keeping kids out of school and continuing the shut-down. For every formerly respectable Republican family living in "good" half-acre plus zoned neighborhoods who hnow has a Black Lives Matter sign in their front yard, the Democrats have lost two middle-income less than full college households. The exception has been government employment. If the people in the household are school teachers/civil servants - i.e. the people still getting paid for not working, BLM is just another word for worker equality and social justice. The problem for the Democrats is that too many of these people live and get paid in states whose electoral college votes the Trump campaign wrote off from the first day he was inaugurated.
Prediction: Trump - 319 EV, Biden - 219 EV
Trump wins popular vote by 1-2 million votes.
One or both of two possible events could defeat those likely results:
1. By October 15 the media succeeds in convincing Americans that there has been a "second wave" of Covid-19 deaths and the country faces a lethal pandemic that Trump has failed to deal with
2. Trump's arrogance comes through in the debates and allows Joe Biden to be seen as a sympathetic person of adequate capacity to become President - translation: "He is much less of an asshole"
If I am right, Trump will win the popular vote because balloting by mail will be much less feared/predicted. Thanks to the shutdowns of colleges and universities, the student vote is likely to drop by 1 million. A great deal of Hillary Clinton's popular vote victory came from literally running up the score in New York, Illinois and California; in those states, among women, Clinton had enormous popular enthusiasm. Biden shows no comparable excitement this time; his margin of victory will be significantly less.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Silverman
Tweets-Aug/23/2020
let us d=forget about dr. cattle and w=te wokes and the convention for a minute. the sp has already hit the constructal number of 34 00 and is overing 3 below it now presmmably all thekings horses cant keep it below for too long
the drs in deep state whodotn have to worry about jobs or pensiosn to a man have denigrated the blood plasme treatment as it not proved conclus
ively and best safety no yet conclusive.. soonn we can expect dr. cattle to do womething to help the cattle traderesits
[reseumably this s a reason to keep kids out of school. in any case the woes seems to be getting desperate and as their lead keeps decreasing we can only expect a despearte series of keech like cult ratiocinations and riiots in Octobler to stop that man
hodl him resposnbillel for all the deaths and unemployment in the world. the times has a typcial example with a fort page busienss article saying the kids dont get very sisk but it is deadly for them neverthess. you see the native american did better when they had money stipnds
like reasons the cutl decries the rise. moves int eh grains every thru years as well as the moves in stocks and bonds and gold and the dollar decliihe come sto mind. i believe i see this with the challangers supprters . one day they tear up his messa, the next day theyl
every now and then a market keeps moving higher and higher (or the reverse lower and lower). with the bears coming up with oneunreasonablel reason to hope the market breaks after another. eventually the llast short fold has cards but it is interesitng to see the keech
of course all the news is subsidiary and irrelevant but just provides a descriptive narrative to the selfish price.ethe selfish price isn 8 aways from another construal number and at yet another all time high. what are the chances that dr. cattle can hold the dyke
when will fda learn that decisio makig udcner uncertainty which all market peoope make can be made in better ways than doubleblind . ad that during crises safety testing is secondary to potentiall llife savnig. imagine imarket people were to hold off on trading anythng
and the Pres is scheduled to announce a new cure and hope for alleviating virus at 6 pm. presumably dr. fauci will be rite there tl decry the lak f double blid and sav=fery results for it to debunk hope. when will the fdelern that people have a rite to their own life.
much news today. pres continues to narrow lead of adversary to 55 % versus 42% makig for a 43% chance for pres with the figures showing massive last minute trends for the underdog as in racing. these betting figures also agree with odds shak. violence continues in Port
Tweets-Aug/22/2020
The prez has narrowed challanger's lead to 15 percentage pts in the betting odds from 24 percentage pts 2weeks. ago.since there was 78 milllion in the pool 2 weeks ago and 82 milllion now, iti means that 70% of the money bet in last 2weeks has been bet on pres.
Tweets-Aug/21/2020
stocks at new high as they managage about 30% of all days since 2011. only questio is whether they willl hiit the constructal tqrger todqy to dwicomvbulte cqll optoion sellerws
teh story is thaat at the wigwam the day of the election a drunk always sane " marching thru georgia " but couldnt get thruthe frist line. he lapsed into somnolence. and nock said that the the drunks political sensibilities were the greatest and most appropriate he ever saw
like old man river wh enever stocks go down, bonds go up showign that the trendo mmm continues with full force
there was much hope from the bilios ones at 33 57 down 23 on day.. that hoppe has receded like nocks woebeoge at the wiigwam he began marchign to georgia but could never get thru the first verse before he lapsed into stupor. in any case the debates seem on
Tweets-Aug/20/2020
camp kinsella still an option for chancee gardner and at least willl near previosu chair and daughter of press secreatry there
" tail risk at a maxixmum" https://marketwatch.com/story/low-key-hedge-fund-star-scored-big-in-coronavirus-rout-and-now-says-stock-market-environment-presentslargest-set-of-tail-risks-weve-seen-in-15years-2020-08-20?mod=newsviewer_click… " whare dods that debates will be canceled . well know tonite
heard as the heavily paneled lunch room at the Reserve. " i offered her half or what she asked for"
the traveling salesman has not asertained if the gas at 33 775 is worth a pass over
lets see if change gardner and his boys and the woke treas secretary can make restitution for yesterday especiallly seeing they donthave to assume the incumbent is necerrily sunk
i must confess that the extent of the move relieved me of some capital also
you have to hand it to the market . after 3 days of stasis where the half hour pries never exceededd 1 pt away from high to cloosel the makret dropped 150 big pts overnite thereby allowing and insuring that the public lost its riteful share to the big to the big top feeders
Tweets-Aug/19/2020
congresswoman watanabe must have read the minutes and sold
https://twitter.com/kerpen?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor… phil kerpen
absudity for school age children. phil perpen has death rate of kids of school age given that they tested pos for marketing virus. not one state has death rate above 0.00%.how pernicious is the desire to sink incumbent
as one plank in wokes is to make Fed take 3 rd plank for wokity , chances are that minutes will show strident independemce/ the constructal beckons
who is the woman of Aisan descent who is extremely profitable in her trades and what is she doing now with the annnouncemnt which she and every other member of congress gets as they "meed to know"
a non-bilious number. e sp has been at a 20 day high at the close 57 times and it hastn 107 times since 2020
the schoools and the lockdowns are related in other ways than bodh closed sink the incumb./ the schools have preparedte woke for marxism so they must continue to maintain their 95% chalegner bias
Tweets-Aug/18/2020
concerning the rise in wealth of the fabulous 12 billionaires the one thing that is relevant is that according to the betting odds it isonly 36% that (the incumbent willl lose and the senate will become democratic.) jointly) a lethargic day as stocks move to new hi along with
nobodyasked me but the market watch owned by dow is as bearish as thebillionaires data firm. they foudn1 analyst who was bearish and they featured him. nextt hye foud t i bearish because the rise recently has been gingerly. oly goneup 12 ot 14 days. there is much hand wriging
aall the billionaires perhaps 90% of them against incumbent who are going to be faced wtih a 45% capital gains versus current 20 % ardentntly espousing https://wsj.com/articles/the-bernie-sanders-moment-11597707984?mod=hp_opin_pos_1… anti enterprise agends
one of greatest regularaties is that individuals will act according to their eocnomic interests. alll the gov agencies 95% against incumbent. as Heather M says not one calling for a lockdown had to wrory about his or er job and pension. but its' amazing to see
a most unusual day with many new highs or almosts dollar at loow versus yen and euro never happned in alst 2 yrs wtih stocks up.. apparently likely turn to marxism greater in Us than Europe
Tweets-Aug/17/2020
i would add to the heroic words of Heather that the urge to trade is as instinctual for humans as the urge for sex and music. any prevention of trade takes away muihc of human happiness as well as the ability to imrpove oneself and the trading partner
a 1 pt ramge as of every half hour. truly a test for public to be stopped out and contibute there emolument rto the high frequency and banks with unlimited capital
this isnt cricket. the range in sp over nite was only 11 pts. from 3376 to 3365,. no chance for top feeders to relieve pbulic of their riteful contibution to the infrastructure; a, empty bag for the europpeans versus public
Go Make
“The hubris of the defeated” “The game is flawed”
A Beautiful Mind - "The Challenge" - A Game of Go
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmlSSSN7C78
Constructal Decline
An aspect of the constructal theory that is less discussed on the list is that systems evolve to increase flow.
As the attached graph shows, volume on the S&P 500 (as reported in Yahoo Finance) has fallen all the way back to pre-covid levels, with a low point reached around August 14, no doubt to the detriment of exchange members and other top feeders.
Now there is a 100-point selloff. What better way to get people trading again on what otherwise might have been two very dull days heading into a holiday weekend?
Tweets-Aug/9/2020
of the american checker foundation is on the spec list and i herdeby ask him to have one of the good p layers answer thshs this ridciulous fallacy
witiing on the walll. thas enuf . i cry for all the time i spent with wiswell and his suden decline at 85. but one t hing for sure, i must or a good checker player must debunk the absurd fallacy the " he plays chess the simpleton plays checkers. alan Millhone the venerable prez
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In order to win you must have plentry of confidence and thats fine unles it becomes conceit/ 5. i have often been asked w hy i always play 11-15m abd u reokt : that;s where the wins are" 6. a good player sees the handwriting onf the walll'' before there is any hand
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it is a lot easier to stay out of a trap than it is to draw the losss…. so beware.2. if you want to be certain of your position- you mist begin by doubting it. 3 checejrs nust be learned and releaned over and over. that;s what hoolds us, often for a life time
years , tom wrote a book for me with 8000 proverbs about checkers, life and markets a lll triple entendres. in his honor i willl memorialize a few of them not in my book .
during my 6 day removal from the real world as no power and internet and car and phone, I fortunatley was able to find a god checker program and I masatered the single corner and cross and ayersh9ire lassie from red. in the honor of tom wiswell, w taught me for 25market watch is aoways bearish and could have been edited by the biloious billlionaires and the biolionaire data provided
how did the woke at wsj get a crapolla araticle with ludicrously low samples on their healdine page when the weekend wsj had a scholarly and comprehensei artilce on { why ists9mostly safe to repon the schools. one wonders why Market watch owned by the wsj is so consistelty
have been wouthoutphiil kepen for 6 days a s a zomby . i have no car or telephone) but power wa out, but he points out that the receent wsj article onf transmission by the very young is crapola and one wonder how the 200 reported for the wsj who signed a woke wanting letter
way the sp now thats its a new highs? well have to study on that and be bak when quatitative analysis works
The dr. cattlle refuses to be supppressed in my absence and subtly works for the cattle trader and her illk the latest becinse devern distrust the public health authorities, Heather Mconalld and commonse sense show the wrongness of ths. the question emerges which
lthe woke efforts in total replace productive work, create a grip fro socilallism, reduce happiness, creat misery , and reduce individual effor.. sets a terrible base for the future. but as said, this will turn when the challanger wins
school opening. this despite the incessant clamor, shalll we say charivari or rough nosie for dumping the economy and stock market before the election. One notes the dollar contirnuing it decline which is the main impact of the turn to socialism engendered in the bailouts
was the surge in sp up 6 days in a row caue of the imrpovement or a result?One also notes that the clear evidecne that kids of school age have less than 1 in million chance of morbitiy from the virus or a negigal chance of transmitting it has caused some movement on
one has been without communicatioon in or out durignthe past week dueto a tornado and 5 days wihtout power in Conn.the main thing i noticed when i bak is that the pres odds on the incumbent have 8=improved. it was 23 percentage points against him 1 week ago now 19 pts.
Tweets-Aug/4/2020
crude joins the pantheon of new highs as sp plays peei a boo with constructal number
the bak drop with dollar near lows and bonds near highs provides a nice base to offset further woke activity which will continiue to sink incumbent which according to my theory is not negative to say the least. but one should sleep with one eye open in case of coup de grace
Tweets-Aug/16/2020
correction. in my view there willl be riots if incumbent wins not challanger. the michael cohen book is very unfav. to incumbent not challanger. i got it alll wrong in my post
incombent reduced lead of challanger by 4% pts to 56% to 40% against. chances of fell swooop in october and posibillity of more riots if challanger win. new book by Michael Cohen very unfavorable to chall. market ins 5 pts range in alst 2 days. ready for explosion
Tweets-Aug/14/2020
.p.p on a friday
draw decllined
an orgy of hope for a fall as sp for first day doesnt threaten all time high yet. vpp challanger is taken by ws as ideal because her socialism doesnt extend to confication of provate property that is woke
sp down 8 at open. pay checks coming mon.. you cant have breakdast alll day
a day unlike the others. bonds were down 5 days in row covering 4 pts . now they're upa feeble 1/2 . incubment cuts lead of challengare to 18 per pts in betting odds from recent 23. everythings not at high. nikkei and dax down a feeble %. crude 1/2 away from hi. gold -16
Tweets-Aug/13/2020
a hard fought draw with a dynamic finish.
and yet the market according to waj loves her as she not hard on siliicon valley et alhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/marsha-blackburn-biden-harris-radical-left-ticket the bilious billionaires
as an indicatio of drift note, that as of 1 pm since 2011 the marketha been at a 20 day high at 1 pm et 548 . and its hasnt at 1928 tiems. that's 28% of time. so dont woke me about how bear things are. but 4 of them were like yest and today. nothing special
lets see if they can fool me the same way they did yest from 11000 to 2 pm et .. no way will they get me twice the way they did yesterday
thank goodness that sage hired two market pickers who paid for lunch with him.( was his wife stilll working at the bar or did she attend also)) the two must have tauught him to admire , understand apple. or did he learn it from on line bridge games with the agrarian founder
the two things i learned from Palindrom after 15 years of very continus and intimate conact were 1. to always use two cans of tennis ballls, and 2.. never to admit to having a profit in anything. 3. a thrid thing ive picked up is never let anyone know what your positionis
they shouldnt be trading markets as they both hate technoloy. buffett admits he ddoesnt know hwot o use ty pewriter or somue such and palindrome says he's retiring from markets because his book of 20 years ago gave away his secrets
furthermore if y ou test the indicator it turns out to be predicitive of just the opposite. it goes against growth and productivty , applied to nasdaq by extension what would it say. buffett and Palindrome both admit
heres the typical piece of a cult what kind ? keech, woke? bearomoter?
when you review it the marekt watch article that buffetts favorite indicatoor is flashing a selll signal is propoganda of the worst kind. buffet didny sayanyting aobut. it. buffet didnt test it. with propaganda bear likethis,, the move to constructal next is much easier
But to care about the economy is to care about human life, since economy is how life is sustained. It is a source of meaning, as well as sustenance, binding humans to each other in web of voluntary exchange. To its workers, every bus is essntial, and to many customers as well.
the tobin indicator sp / gnp is mumbo jumbo if tested would havebeen bearish during the stock markets 50000 fold a cetury rise. the wsj reports that buffet would be very bearish but doesnt indicate that buffett said aything about it rcntl it would lead him to bellly up
the wsj received a letter from hundreds of its staffers complain that they are not more woke. everynow and then apprntly this group seizes control and biases wsj so that economic transactions jobs and what we buy becomes secondary to woke adn theyre like the bilious blom site
wsj has one bearish article saying that incumbent did it and free markets are the problem and problem is that gov doesnt control everything and buffett would be very bearish and vp dem is ve
market has a very smalll range of 1 or 3 pts each interval today so it musut have a big day in store for us as the pubic has no right to lose so little
Tweets-Aug/12/2020
thye fooled me twice today. after the open and the close. made one feel very amateurish. and yet…. deception is payr for the course.
market is ineluctable and trie dto fool longs at close thereby owing a good finish to constructall number. challenger keeps incresing lead so proetests if incumbent lwins will ot hapen . and marketing dept of virus will close
a double bounce that wasnt crricket. but the couse of a conststructal must be deceiving
that decline wasnt cricket
mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=wm&ogbl#inbox… hte acorn doesnt falll far–
one cant resist on the move to next constructal to note that dr. cattle was guaranteed to say russian vaccine no good. it wasnt invented here and it wont derail the economy for the new catte trader and sanders accolyte
one sets sites on the next constructal number of 3400 sp
marekts only done this twice in last 10 years with bonds bonwn down and sp up at open and up today but down close to close yesterday. a very unhealthy situation except it provides an antidote to marxism
finallly some antidote to the government spending for non-productive activyt.. the bonds go way don. the quantity theory of money rises from 1000 years ago. production is down. money is up. prices must go up. mv = pt
query> the stock market dropped almost 2% beteen 3 pm and 4pm et. yesterday in conjunction with chaanger's selectioon of vp. did it go down because his vp was good for his chances or bad? i.e is the market now in a situation where everything Trump is bear or bull?
bonds at big minimum at least 40 day.. challanger lead in race expands to 20 percantage points. stock market seems to like new vp of challanger. seems li e the kind that like the cattle trader would short cattle when she says she bought it because she was bull
Tweets-Aug/11/2020
dollar making a big recovery
;perhas the end of the marxism meme for a while
a most unusual day with bonds refusing to go up wh en stocks go down and gold down 100 and incumbent lessening his loss in polls.. has the scent of a new regivem
stocksw ay up and b onds way down at 910 not so fgood for spf
marketing dept of the virus in us very upset by the possibillity of reduction of morbidity. amazing that any coutnry can develop a vaccine that beats palceby with its 90% efficay . high standard error. imagine dr. cattle decrying it.
The Russians develop a vaccine theyre ready to roll out and all meia and woke ignore and decry it unntil after the election as it mite give hope
strangely not bearish at all at 8 am with bond down big and stocks up big at 8 am
one notes that the inciumbent is improving his odds in the betting markets to 18 % below challanger and improvies by 4% in battle ground states.
Tweets-Aug/10/2020
market where there is so much " hoping it along " from the bear side and woke side.
all their bearish hope is that " children are getting sick: and the stock market after a 105 decline in november could go up its usual 15 % a year under the challlanger as his increased attention to the environment creates more profits for companies. i have never seen a
it is pathetic to see the twisitng and extensiosn of the bear wokes trying to find somehting bearish. we've gone u p 7 days in a row . eisenstat has shown that the higher a rise in the sp, the more bullsihfor the rest of year . all the bilious billlionarise can come up
Mr. goldcam pts out on spec list that if challenger wins ,with his doubling of capital gains service his mantra and trillions for reduction of pollution, there would liekly be a heavy selllig in November to take advantae ofthereduced 50 % rate now.
a good article that examines all aspects of striving for dominance especiaoy suppressing the reprodcutvei success of competitior ( by insuring they pay high service rates) is here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominance_hierarchy
Mostly F’s
Thanks for the comments and ideas on REITs. I bought a basket of 10 today
under the premise that stocks down by 50% with good free cashflow, with the
ability to borrow far below lease yields, should come back. Areas like
healthcare, storage and re-purposing seem sustainable. Amusingly the discount
broker I have been using for decades added a new rating system using classroom
grades - which I did not know about until after the purchases. Of ten buys I
made, they graded me almost entirely with F's with a few C's.
Experts Never Fail
Dr. Zacek writes:
The population density in Sweden is 25 per Km2 (64 people per mi2).
New York has the highest population density of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people per square mile.Just saying.
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
That is why they need absolute authority.
Peter Grieve writes:
Stockholm was doing fairly well, last time I heard. Also just sayin'.
Tweets-July/31/2020
the market throwing everything at us for the last day of month with nas up and sp down and nikkei very unhappy. drl cattle to testify among woke friends. incumbent trying hail mary throws with defense very alert. fortunate mr. moss kindly let one out at a 50 from below and abv
strange divergences with europe asia not necessariy in us favor
Tweets-July/30/2020
Hello mr. sogi . Your never fully dressed without a 50 . when willl it come?
mr. m, im afraid illl hve to let you go
" hes in better shape than most people half his age" be a shoe in to survive tranportation
there is something rather heroci and at once pathetic with wchih the bears tried to breakthe round number of 32000 and the goggles of Dr. cattle and alll the hoped for woke news . almost an orgasm with the called for 40% decline in gnp
seens like the last desperate gasp of the bears as of the close
Tweets-July/29/2020
https://sparknotes.com/lit/montecristo/character/danglars/… Judas, Uriah
a stream. gun sales, marxism, debaes canceled, deplorables, mr. jones, marxism, radical wing, empty suit, more taxes, progressive wing, schools opened, october surprise,
the greenies have returned to their hootch and are prepared for ambush
Tweets-July/27/2020
as soon as nov is over, hydro, and mortality and sports, apple pie, protests, will be in harmony. perhaps why the market remains so strong. on the other hand if the one in a million happens and the incumbent wins, rampant destruction and violence can be antici[ated
it is becomoig increasingly cler that whatever will create misery, unhappiness, anxiety,uncertaity , suffering will be hyed by the pressies to sink economy and Prez. one fears for the coup de grace in Oct as all the billiionaire money is deployed. that's the good news to me
you have to admire dr. cattle feigned humility. "im just going to continue doing my job" when or in what literature besides Dickens has there been one more effective in bringing down his boss?
opposed to hydro chloro–, even though many dr.s hav use it effectvely as an early treratment. . as mentioend the placebo is so effective in preventing mortality that it ialmost impossible to do a double blind on an alternate that is statisi stig stand errr of o.90 x 0.10 etc
certan disturbing info comes down pike about dr. cattle other than his life long love letter to Miss. cattle. 1 he has a baseball card memorilizing his perfect thwo,. 2 he owas the patent for a vaccine- dengue. 3. he wrote a letter praising Governor Cuomo, 4.he is adamantly
everything stillll near a high euro , yen , bonds, curde gold. perhaps a gravitational move hiigher for sp now that Jay chance has seen that he could permanently alienate all his non-work support
a wild close to put chance on guard tomorrow
Tweets-July/27/2020
the greenies are in control alll around
Tweets-July/26/2020
"i m not a hero. i m just doing my job" dr cattle
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/history/… perhaps one way to crystallize is to look at Nas from beginning of year. its up 13% but now at a 15 day low , just 2 % above the June month end close. this can be tested
a steady diet of bearish fears greets one over the weekend with 1. fang stocks concentrate rise.2 more day traders. 3 stocks bonds and commodities all up.4 nas at new 20 day lows. 5 stocks down 2 days in row. 6etc. one queries have you tested any of them?
Tweets-July/24/2020
more suffering is the goal of the woke . and the keynsian from the white shoe firm negotiates by suggesting half a loaf of suffering. more flailing around from the incumbent party . the sp will continue to set new highs. its topsy turvy
Tweets-July/23/2020
54 minutes ago"There has been no recorded case of a teacher catching the coronavirus from a pupil anywhere in the world." today's Times of London.
prediction of the day. some pressie will compliment dr. cattle on his delievery and accuracy and resilience and forttue in throwing out first pitch of baseballl seson.
a typical statsitic form phil kerpen .of 2 million school age kids in sWWEEDEN WITH NO CLOOSING OF SCHOOLLS NOT ONE DEATH OR SERIOUS CAE. but, but they have b=ni reasin to sink pres. or unions to prevent kids beingeducated
dr. cattle thrwowinf thentowqrds Miss cattle on the left without adjustment
one of most astute traders i've encountedf in my 60 years of trading, mr. watsurf poses a intriguing question " where would the market have been without the virus:"
Tweets-July/22/2020
a ru n of 3 greenies on a special operation with Tesla providing a vividconstructal barrier undil bonds set yeto one more all time high
dr. cattle to throw first pitch of first baseeball game. out of 18000 of 18000 tests inly 1 came bak to marketing dept of virus. no sickensses. the american game starting despite what must be woke efforts to derail and denigrate it. very buoo
a friend writes that ny is dirty and boarded up and many busiesses have given up. one wonders i f this is anifestation of sink pres woke and holding out for alms and general failure to create unbroken windows in effort to spawn protests and marxism
anything to hurt economy and beseech gov for funds . what a marketing dept the virus has. good news is that it will all be over in Nov when challanger wins. perhaps that's why market at new highs
your own man , the captain says you were out. flailing aoub t when losing a game onlyy works one in a million. djokavich versus federer as he tried a desperate forechast at match point against him like pres bettint us to wear face maks
school kids dont vote so they bear the brunt of woke attempts to close schools. now even the educators are trying to keep schools closed as bonds set new highs
Tweets-Aug/3/2020
you have to hand it to challenger. he refuses to endorse aoc thereby showing the facade of moderation in the face of woke agenda cubed.. he has good guidance and the drumbeat to keep him like the kurowa generals who pretend to be alive when they are not, begins to carry steam
thus as incumbent keeps getting less likely to win as he does every day, the market goes up because of likely harmouny after the election
my theoroy as to why the market is going up is that in the event that the incumben wins there will be massive protests and violence uncheked and encouraged as in the past. if challanger wins, the marketing dept of the virus will go into hibernation and lockdownw willl stop
keys to the game. will the spp threaten the round number and first day of month a or willl it be deterred by the incredible run of upnes especiallly in afternooon
many somersaults except for s p.
guaranteed to happpen: 1. DRumbeat for chalanger not to debate incum begin: 2. Pelosi says only one she trusts on virus is dr. cattle. 3 restaurnts in cal. ban dishes with flames. why? a very sagacious dr. who was victim eexplains " they want to killl as much joy as possble
Tweets-Aug/1/2020
a very green day except the yen and euro set highs on thur, and bonds only tured into the gree at the close. No signals on transport to Australia for certain " learned ignoramuses "
Betting Average
If the prices are"stupid", it may be because they are beginning to discount what they are after you stop cheating in the weighting and sampling.
The issue is just that a bunch of europunters having a go at US
elections may provide little useful information.
And yet
The query is what will happen if incumb win.s massive rioting in nov.
P3losi DUIs and fires her dentures through the windshield, Schifty quits his thyroid meds, and Sleepy Joe shuffles off to one of Cuomo's covid homes. And masks come off and @ntifa soyboys get to cohabitate prisons with real big men
Tweets-July/21/2020
what are the news? bonds at newhigh as stocks down 2 from open.. more woke programs universal preschool and poking fun at those who wish to be individualistic wihtout masks
like the beat , beat beat of the tom toms the bonds go up threatening new his whenever sp is down a moite. that provides a beautiful foundation for tu=futhter sp hi despite
in interim whenever stocis so much as decline 1/4 % bonds move to new highs. a very good foundaton for the next constructao nmber of 33000 on sp relentless rise to new highs
the How close can we be getting when deaths by motorcycle crashdead from a heart attack are being listed as death by CO/immigrant from an East European country tells us that families of persons who have died from anything are, oddly, being offered cash if they agree to list the COprevious cite was to a wsj letter and is part of sink trump pandemic incoluding closing schools and shutting down economic activity before Nov. How can market see thru the propaganda
Tweets-July/20/2020
heads up from Laurel ."she " cant believe how good the time it never rained is"'' along with monte walsht he top 2 or westerns and a heroic Americanism to aspire to especially now
Tweets-July/19/2020
"with all due modesty i tink imdoing averyeffective job" dickens "i am a very humble person"
ny not doing as welll as dr. cattle says indespearte attempt to sink pres . 2. Pret sales down 87%. 3 diners in Hells kitchen being assuoted by homeless coming out of hotels
Tweets-July/17/2020
stocks are so strong that bonds refuse tos ee a new high and are down 1/3 of a pt. on day
in an amazing anomaly the higher we go in sp the higher the lead of the challanger no 23 percentage pts. ranomaly 2is that eveything we were taught for 50 years in macroeconomics about way to hlp the economy ,i.e. raising interest rates controlllng infl appears wrong
Thanks to MR. barbato for referring me to thsi article shwoing propaganda machine of aghrarians tosik incumbent
everyone in my family received bcg at birth. https://pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2020/07/07/2008410117.full.pdf… livingston wheeler an unsung hero with Pasteur
that should be challenger lead at new high in polls. no evidence that new thrust of incumbent is reducing very sig lead of challenger.a of c head of climate committee that drafted challenger proposals. estimated job loss in 10s of millions. only a billionare could wish this
bonds at new high. incumbent lead at new hi. covid deaths for under 25 cohort signif less than influenza and flu death in same period last 2 months. over reporting of covid deaths in all areas. sp set for new constructal number old high 3225 ish
Tweets-July/16/2020
what situation does that remind you of a s dr cattle doubles down in every media possible to dump his partner
a doubles game was arranged. my partner was a thief . and it soon transpired th at he was d mping on me. there was only one thing to do . i kicked my partner off the court and hit every shot lefty backhand. ultimately the game was called because of obvious larceny by my partner
tje live intervu between the boy founder and dr. cattle brought bak a memory whcih i couldnt plac e until a now. when i ws 9 or 10 i ws very good in paddle ball. i had to play with my lefty backhand against a regular b+ player
you have to hand it to the chaolenger . his betting odds are 23 percentage pts bett er than the incumbent a maximum lead and the challlenger's suporters havent even wheeled out the october coup de graces
dr. uriah cattle left no stone unturned in his learned trashing of everything Prez. perhaps( hopefully) this is sign of immminent transportation
lie the beat beat beat of the tom toms the bonds threated new his whenever stocks go down a moite. that provides a magnifcient foundation for futher sp his despite the ever widerning lead of the agrarians, and cattle trader ilk
he mentions that i SEll options" like school boy i stopped many years ago and learned my lessons. I wish I learned more, and I still am attempting to improve my game. the funny thing aobut the derivatives expert i cant go into becasue it is his wont when not pumping to sue
Mr; wolander mentions with invidiousness that he buys options in contrast to me. I am reminded of the 10 yrold that ook bets on football games and was ever after labeled schoolboy until he was 80. i learned my lesson and havent sold premium in 15 yrs. the lessons are many
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uriah_Heep need one say more or wish for transport
Tweets-July/15/2020
challengers lead over icumb is getting to be greater than ;rez/s lead over ctle trader. One can only hope that as events and pressies conspire to sink him, that he doesnt flail around in desperation thereby giving pressies and fifth colomnists further ammunition to destroy
even dr. cattle couodnt sink market todya. but his attempt to paint all the critique of his wrongness as "bizarre" was a fine defense. reminds one of the chronic bears who point to high p/e in wonderment of market rise to new highs
dr. cattle— havent even begun to see end of pandemc. -poke fun at idea that there is political agenda in closingschools ( sse phil kerpen on this) anomaly that if 90% of crimse is commited by group a how come group a is arrested more than group b
beautiful example on woke station twising eveything — starting out with dr. cattle — who do you trust more virus chief or pres.– havent even begun
marlet opponent refuses to be s uppressed from highs. it must be discourgaing to them that all the kings horses and gold cant further destroy market— but ot oh it keeps increasing lead of incumbent with ever increasing woke agenda
eg. marketing dept of dta compay — fear gage at high level, critical stage as unemplomnt expires, –my bearish bilious friend despite unlimited funds towoke orgs and a ll their tricks with same— dr cattle champing at bit to further excalate caution and pessimism– and yet
sp,e aspect s of market remind me of playing a racket game against someone with a weak bachhand. ( gordy anderson in my case). you keep hitting it to his back hand and its weak and you lose ( nver happn to me). te bilios billionaires keep tryig to suppress market and economy.
many high levels not seen in months in sp and crude and others. market refuses to be curtailed by marketing depts of woke,virus and incumbent
Tweets-July/14/2020
amazon.com/Books-Rene%CC%81-Lacoste/s?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_27%3ARene%CC%81+Lacoste
speaking of the crocodile he always took notes of hs oponent and took every balll on the short hop on is toes. he said it gave him an extra 30 points a game. any of his books are highly recomened.
in the rematch federer served the same ball to jokovichs wide to the forehad but instead of stabbing at it for a winner the outcome was different. the crocodile waits for the player i the same place
the safe was found empty containing a god brick and a penny let us hope a similar expose of ths learned imbecile occurs including alll his corresponence with the cattle trader and her ilk
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%C3%A9r%C3%A8se_Humbert… the empty treasure box
mr john smith a bio adviser suggests I need help because dr. fauci is a national treasure.". Their is famous con woman who maintained treasure box in France that was empty and she fooled all the courts andofficials with it. that box contains the dr. Ill give you ref ltr
Tweets-July/13/2020
a robust bonds will ultamely trum virus fears
he contines to help the marxists. 2. the response to thenews today remnds m one of skinners' eperimetns on negative reinforcement. tehre ahve been so amy punishemnnts for the market with fake virus news ( i.e. keepig the schools closed) that the punishment s have lost impact
every oportunity the dr. says something that will help the cattle traders and marxstis to sink the pres. but if the pres dares to express a contrary view, he will be guillonied by the press. as said, te dr. wrote a lovee letter to the cattle trader and by an invisible black hand
finall dr. fauci is receiving witherigncriticim for his single minded concern with dire nutations and possiby unknown effects of the virus.. it mut be very hard for the pres to have soeone like the dr. trying to undermine the economoy and his rospects at every
a hard fought game with the green pulling out all its stops tosink the red to no avail. histeres galore
what a fish that was// we killed each other
Tweets-July/12/2020
strangely the market watch coowned by dow jones is almst as bearish as the billious billionare site.. their lastest is withotu the best perfor tech stocks the sp would ahve erfrmend worse than a saving account.course that's always its as old as hill for bears to site this
more improtant the lead of biden continue at 2 /3 chanc eof wining and whatever incombent does it imediately is pillooried .and morbidity and mortality is vastly overstated to sink Pres can this counterbalance the bond yield boost apparently not
phil kerpen tweets show that the death rate from preumian and other causes for all is much greater than the death rata from covid and that covid death rates are vastly exggerated by dying with covid rather than dying because of it
what is purpose of closing and restriction on schools except to create feeling of unhappiness and poverty (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srap9f
some nice big bond moves increase the chances of relentless drive of stocks perhaps with a histerisis
BBQ Heaven.
Jeffery Watson writes:
Yesterday at 4PM, I put a couple of shoulders on the smoker. I'm doing it very low and slow, and expect this meat to run 22-24 hours on the smoker. No problem, our guests aren't coming until 6 so we should be OK. Smoking meat is the easiest thing to do in the world, just marinate the night before, give it a good dry rub and let it go on low temp (215-230 degrees) until internal temp reaches 205 and it's tender. Keep the meat moist while smoking and spray with apple juice every 2 hours or so. Temperature is critical. After the smoke, let the pork rest for 90 minutes wrapped in tin foil inside an insulated cooler, then take out the bone and pull the pork apart with forks. I always throw a little rub and the juices back into the pulled pork for an extra taste sensation. BBQ'ing might take a long time, but it's easy to do and tastes so good.
Larry writes:
Beautiful… Love the idea of the long smoke time think it makes a huge difference. I'm smoking whole chickens today about 3 1/2 hours also doing smoke corn in the cob if you haven't tried that yet it's a real treat.
Jeffery Watson writes:
Smoked corn on the cob is also part of our menu along with slaw and homemade potato salad, the potatoes also got some smoke. Just took the shoulders out of the smoker and am now allowing them to rest. Total time was 20 hours and 45 minutes. I cranked up the smoker To 300 and will be smoking a couple of pounds of sweet and hot Italian sausage. This dinner should turn out pretty decently.
Tweets-July/9/2020
[oclomg Milie up many years after he had retired. and when he walked down Mullberry street to pickhierup, all the men of respect stampeded out of all the cooffee ships on Mulberry street thinkign that billl had coem to make more arrests
one of best stories ive heard is this. bill put many of the Godfather's in prison. they liked to frequent a coffer shop on Mulberry street. that was also the venue for the Fantastocs which Bills very capable wifeMillie liked to see frequently. one day bill was picking millie
bills bok Vice cop is the best true crime book i've read. billl has the record for most arrest. He was also head of bomb squad
bill mccarthy, a friend and student of Artie says t hat a souce of the problem is that suddenly its become de rigeur to resist arrest he says that some of time a no knock rule is justified. most policeman are not trained and practiced in using physical force. his book
beware of the easy way to the Bad one
bonds at yet another all time high , a nd crude falling below 40 for first time in days
the oikuce have a verycushy deal with the political savvy of theirunios, the difficuoty fo foing, and not rehiring, qualified immunity andtheiruse of militry equipmetn, the no knock and their tactics
the situation is similar to mayof the kurosawa samura movies where the warring party kept the fact that their chief general and leader was dead from the enemy. i am told that the bars in tokyo are controlled by the Godfathers and that the politicians can only suggest
one of the hidden motifs is that the cahlallenger must not face the incumbent in debates as his socialism and mental lapses would show so that the pressies must prepare the agenda to showo that the viruses makei it mandatory to halt all debates until after the election
very approately led by the most liberal school harvard— closing its sports program for the fall - and like nite the day all the other ivys fall along to sink the pres and maintain their monoopoly on ideological conformity for the new political party to bephil kerpen as a
nice graph showing the nmber of deaths from mexico sitely higher than the us but b oth decreasing. he neglects to say waht the hobo poitns out that all the us death come from mexico going for better care and air conditioning
after an incredibl deceptie day, the market takes a rest for athe evening with just a 18 point range —- so far. — but yopu have to gave the sp credit for withstanding aklll the marxist closing and curtailing of schools . sort of going up on the firwsst really bad
Tweets-July/7/2020
the sp seems ready to resume its relentless rise to new highs
boosting the cattle traders chances and waiting for Chance gardner
heres the skinny. from math puzzles volume 1 presh talwalkar. doc here. from nature walk. originally too (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srahcm
as discussed sometimes the team that's slitelyahead ends up losing
same old drumbeat. market at 3140 seems too far down prez gained 1 percentage point in betting odds
Tweets-July/6/2020
https://scientificamericadn.com/article/bet-on-the-losing-team/… doc castaldo back from quarantine inItaly tomorow and we willl have a t horough discussion of this as it applies to markets
a waiting move today
https://foxnews.com/politics/cuomo-says-no-decision-on-whether-new-york-schools-will-reopen-in-the-fall-amid-coronavirus… I predict that the decision will depend on sinking Trump and the marketing depus of the virus and the state of sp. a multivaraite dummy variable regression is approriate
up the lazy river
Tweets-July/5/2020
i calcu this for sp markt for last 10 years. and find that as of 12 noon if the market is down, the chances it will end up is 20% and if the market is down at of 1 00 pm, the chances it will end up is 18%.articles on is losing better than winning are relevant
as the market soars , one turns to a proability questiosn that pres forwalker aks. if tow teams are e venly mathcched what is the proability that thet eam that's losinn will end up the winner at the end. he presents a prob . model and empiricla resuls tat shows that 0.25 is ans
woulnt it be likely for a professional league possibly in the playoffs in oct. to have the rest of season canceled as the makreting dept of the virus find one of the players tests positive for the virus, especiallly if incumbent is catchng up to challanger at time
as the market soars to a new 19 day high, one is quried abut the influence of jb and anthoy inbasktballl onthe outcomes. I foud the besta nswer is that " the only team that can practice social distancing i the knicks on defense. steve's joke but there no s.dist possile
Mr. Jordan makesa good point on spec list . with alll the marxists united against prez , and their access to all sorts of damaging ifo on the econoy and markets and the prez. chacter and lapses, it is likely they will put the final crusher on Prez inOctober 2020
its only a ripple but if it was a market there would be a notice. for first time in 3 weeks teh bidens lead over pres has decreased. its now only 59% chance of beating the pres
out of population of 50 million schoool age kids there have been 15 deaths . thus a 1 in 3 million chance of school age kid dying despite the bias to hype the number of deaths ..
Tweets-July/4/2020
the evolution of greariousness ( hed like behavior) the wearing of masks, the bearsihness of Abelson and upside down man, the deifciation of the new Marxist party to be, the contagion of cheers for bad economic news, the momentum ( trend following of incumbents lead) 1 of 2
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1277356590144815105… despite the many reasons that deaths from covid are lyped up by overcounting the # of deaths keepe declining. and many flu deaths are probably counted as covid deaths. all to create a sense of misery before election
Tweets-July/3/2020
SLAB CITY LOWEST, IMPREIAL COUNTY HIGHEST IN USA Slab City, CA has become a free national refugee camp (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sra904
thats dow 1900. he missed a 30 fold increase from 1956 . appparently the cattle trader followed him because she made her $ 99967from theshort sdie ofcattle. amazingly she did this while she said she was bullish form the wsj columns ( that didnt exist)
as mentioned you cant have breakfast all day. after 4 rises in a row covering 125 sp points just a little pause to cover shorts for the bears causes havoc. it only happend 4 times befire july 4. alll were up the next us trading day an average of 1%.
once he had a column with 15 independent reasons for being bearish. the dr. usualll give on reason pulled out of the hat from alll his colleagues in reseach around the world that could be bearish and deserving of caution and lock down
like the chronci bear the upsdie down man and many others he isadamant in seeking ot something self serving and cattle trading serving that will prevent happiness .. and tend to sink the economy. peopple loved abelson the way they do the dr.and he was eclectic in his reasons
Tweets-July/2/2020
te crocs came out and scared everyone off the beach at 350 and then went bak to ther restig places.. a scare and a ambush without bodies
the crocs hated stee because he captured them alll and they waited to ambush him. there willl be no ambushed today i thiink
again the cdc , fda are united in covering things so that they will be at the fore regardless of what transpires pinnochi rasputin persists in maintaing necessity of futher guidance , restricitons . everything cattle trader from Pinnoch. cattle trader-be ahd of incumb
very subtle destructionof value at fda again.. they will only approve vaccine iif its 50^%% better than placebo. howoever the opalacebos are 90% likely not to detiorate.. so vaccine couldnt possiblye be aprovedl. have to be 10x effective. thus, not invesnted here persts
i believe alll crocodiles are resting and occupied with watching the bathers
mr 50 hit again as pres gloats with prepared text. but this apparently not helping him in odds one cant resist a little short at these levels
the bilious billionaire site headlind that covid cases set a new record and cunempoyment calims exceeded expetations lobster bus in stonington is way down restaurants are closed ( as it is in vinyl so the little woman wil not be takingme there this summer
last one was up 60 the crocodile awaits the visitor who fishes at the same place twice in a row
Soaring cadenza from TSLA
Richard Owen writes:
https://youtu.be/CrrBlYphsdU?t=197
195 INT. DIVA'S SUITE / CONCERT HALL
Leeloo knocks out the last Mangalore just as the Diva finishes her song to a burst of applause. The Diva takes a bow. So does Leeloo.
196 INT. ROOM
Akanit and his men listen to the concert. The Mangalore guard runs in MANGALORE. They were waiting for us! It was an ambush!
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
too subtle for me what's the import ?
Richard Owen writes:
Many of the tech-growth majors were down, except TSLA, after Mr. Powell. In the film, 5th Element, after the Divas solo finishes, the ship blows up. What are Mr. Powells personal incentives now? If he taps the breaks, he'll need extra security for thanksgiving, but he's only two years into a four year term (I think?). If he doesn't tap the breaks, it seems hard to serve out two more years without getting a lot of hot macro-prudential lava on himself. So is it to appear expansive of his mandate whilst really confining it (was anybody already not expecting lower for longer and high tolerance) and hope covid/dems politicise the fed and take it out of his hands?
End of Days
In polling it really is. The data continues to be unprecedented. 2020 is the first time since Gallup started doing samples that a political party has had ZERO improvement in the popularity of its candidate for President after its national convention.
Since the DNC: The number in the brackets is the change in Biden's lead from the previous poll by the same pollster.
Ipsos Biden +7 (-1)
Hill/HarrisX +9 (+1)
Econ/YouGov +9 (-1)
Rasmussen +1 (-3)
Yahoo/YouGov +11 (0)
CNBC/Change +8 (+2)
Morning Consult +10 (+2)
CBS/YouGov +10 (0)
The sum of all 8 polls = 0. If you remove the outliers in terms of the amount of the change (Rasmussen, CNBC, Morning Consult), the remaining 5 have a MINUS 1 reading.
Extraordinary.
Tweets-June/30/2020
the leaed ignoramus tries to hide behing his love of the cattle trader and desire to sink the incombent
amazingl conrnelll did some independent thinking without regard to sinking the incumbent https://wsj.com/articles/why-cornell-will-reopen-in-the-fall-11593535516… apparenly they;s so far r e moved from the other Ivy's that they can make a decision based on benefit to students rather than fund raising
from 1 am its' anyone's game
as mentioned i can no longer stay tuned to market 24 or 48 hours straight. and a recent reading of the godfather inspired me to spike my coffee with anissette tonight. so i lll have to let you go as the Greek said to Moss. the odds are 2 to 1 that it will be up at 1 am but
situation reminds mme of Patrick o brian''s description of a sinking ship. all hands acting for themselves and free to abandon captain in a life boat. who else is going to come out against the incumbent. how can they hurt him? so many of the recs are fostering the hoaxl ony cor
the bilious billionaires did as much as they couodl to sink it. and the odds on the challamger winning reached an alll time high. strangely strength befor first day of month is bull. and we see a round number in the offing soon. it been so long since a 20 day high
market showed its intrinsic strength today. on the lst day of month, usualy a pandemic tit rose strongly for second day in row. they tried everything. fauci tired to briing ti dowon with scare tactic. and so did change powell. the surgeon journal weighed in with ridic recs
a double header galore of trying to put f inal touches on incumbent. an d the spectacle of alll the politicians wiht masks on certifying their own watchfulness during the hoax is loathsome and bearish in itself. the market is amazingly resilietn considering everything. base
played footwie with 50 and a stern Irishman looked askance
Tweets-June/29/2020
how could we not give an honorific to the yae professor nobel prize winnner who is always bearsish and provides statsitcs about p/e that are completely misleading. and our frend the upsdie down man
its someoe whoo kows only his own field but it ignorant of everything else.. who else would yo ugrace with that appeation. it would be very useful
we have previoously enumerated useful idots including pau volker and mauy modernday alanabelsons. but we have not paid enuf attnentoto learned ignoramuses. dr. fauci is one.
Tweets-June/28/2020
andthe dax is perilously close to a constructal nuber of 12000. it s anyone s game again now that spu has broken the inevitable round
the senate impeachment trila was jan 21 to feb 1. could you just understand the hate and vitriol that woud have been thron ata the ncumbent if he had banned travel from relevant countries during that time. the nikke is no longer hyper
another tell paper of recod in ny after firing editor looks like house organ for the likely new party
nikei and dax going thru rooof
its been suggested i concentrate on football as a tell. i thin baseballl the quintessentail american game much better tellwith all these specious reasons I am leaning to the bull side even earilier th an plannned
straws in the wind: derivatives expert says if investor s dotn se a tail risk they shouldnt be in the market. mark hulbert uses data from 1890 to show that Fed model doesnt work. covid cases icrease with more testing. biden lead icreases. 5 reasons to be bearish besides virus
keys to game . should be a very good empplyment and friday. question is whether to buy on Monday morning or Monday close. collectivists puling out all the stops to sink trump and economy over weeked. incombent lead over cattle trader continues to fall in betting makets.
Tweets-June/26/2020
in foro a peenny at these levels
te big catholic schoools would pay bklyn much money to come to be defected 83-0 . a typical score Notra dame 79 bklyn -3 it was pleasant ofr those in the Midwestto see the people of Jewish faith be massacred in foootballl.
can a footballl score ever get negative? one reflects as tne probaility of the incumbent keeps receding , it s now 39% versus 56% for biden. how low can it get? when my father played quarterbak for bklyn colllge in 1930 his team sometimes scored 0 against n.d.
Tweets-June/25/2020
Bulls and bears both in no mans land where a move in either direction is requited by a counter move. the net result is a change very close to unchanged— so far… how can the top feeders change this to make the public go the wrong way
beginning to hear just one more salvo from the Marxists. " the stock market did much better during the administration ofo the obama and clinton than the bush and Trump. On another front, i see a confimred death rate of 0.04% for those in the Us under 65
now that I think of it Tobey Crabel who i rescued from the homeless used to beat me also with the same weak serve and volley game. His tennis at that time I thik everyone can agree was much superior to his trading
it was very good for my game. I never lost on my court except once I played Gene scott and he trounced me by poayign a old fasioned serve and volley game wiithout much of a serve
i owned a vichla for many years. he had a disruptive habit of rumming after tennis bls amdcarrying them inhis mouth the only way I could get the balls away from him was by reppeating "thank you very much" pften. My daughter katie joined me i these episodes
Tweets-July/1/2020
harry roberts was a learned professor and good runner and quality controlman. and friend. he wrote a good bayesian statistics book not published bu he loved differenc tween difference between odds. ratios. he could have used the triangle of challenger incumbent cattle tr
the useful learned idiot ignormaous is growing a longer nose than Pinnochil. hs explanation as to why he said that the public shoudnt wear face masks as they didnt help was that he was trying to save the available moite for hospitals he is intrvwd so often that he trips on nose
of course the ny governor who has ceded the plan for a new police to the protesters who have won is adamant on not allowing dining indoors as this willl help to sink incumbent
all the bilious ones could come up with today was apple is closing 13 stores , Mcdonalds wont allow indoor dining in those not already allowing it. the difference beteen odds of challeng ,incumbent almosot as great as difference between odds of cattle trader , incumbent.
presumably the incumbent wouldnt have said in his press conference that he hopes the employmentnumbers are good unless Mr. Kudlow had told him he wouldnt be embarrased by it. we had 3 nice updays and only before employment it s not bearisih. its 16 days since the lst 20 day
many snares and delusions in paths to rounds. all those learned ignoramuses and useful idiots espousing or hoping for collectivism —abandoning ship holding their fire today
Recessions
I went to look at past recessions beginning with the one that officially started in Aug '1929. I looked that the number of months the recession officially lasted for what the highest the unemployment rate got up to was, what the lowest GDP dropped during it, and the drop in the DJIA. there were 14 official recessions in this period (Iam not counting the current recession we are in).Interestingly, the correlation between the depth of the unemployment rate and the number of months the recessions lasted for was .8438. In other words, the deeper the unemployment rate, the longer the recession lasted for to a very high correlation.
The depth of GDP drop too was highly correlated to the months the recession lasted to a correlation of .75.
Every recession saw market drop-off of varrying degrees with the least being -5.727% from fb to october 1945, the worst -89.19% from Aug 1929–Mar 1933 Of the 14 recessions, 10 saw market drops >20%, and 4 of those saw drops >45 %.
So I would expect this recession to last a long tim based on unemployment and GDP so-far. However, even though all recessions saw a market drop, th severity of the market drop and the length of months the recession lasted was only +.03. The other factors that correlated to market drop during recessions was depth of unemployment rate correlating positively by .12 to depth of market correction, and depth of GDP drop correlating positively to market drop by .35
2Q GDP
Ralph Vince writes:
With a GDP of 21.75 t coming into this year, the quarterly contribution to this is therefore roughly 5.5 t.
Last quarter, 1.1t was shed, making the quarterly contribution about 4.4t, of which 3 t was "injected."
So take away the injected stimulus, and economic growth last qtr was about 1.4t.
Bud Conrad writes:
I agree with your general thrust that the economy is in terrible shape.
But I note that it is not quite as bad as you indicate by subtracting all stimulus from the GDP calculations. Much of the stimulus was to buy assets to shore up markets, but the Gross Product doesn't take into account asset holding transfers.
Of course, asset purchases by the government SPV's do provide money to the sellers, to go buy additional assets like stocks and bonds, or even to invest in a few productive assets that might help the economy, so it is not clear what share of such spending should be deducted form the number to get to what it could have been, but we agree that it is very weak.
Zomby
one has been a zomby the last 6 days without any communication in or out possible because of the conn tornad. I did so some readling including the birth fo a saleman and british expansion af ter loss iduring Amer revo. and of couse listen on a faltering one bar cessl pphon e again to the time is never rainded. the best thing i read to put everything in perspective was " four months of GOvernment Malfeasance { by Hheather Mac Doonald https://www.manhattan-institute.org/four-months-unprecedented-government-malfeasance i would recommend it to everyone. My wife wants to know " is this the time for the stock market to decline?" whats your answer? what would Sam eisenstat say?
Tweets-June/24/2020
theyve done their worst presumablly
we have tinkeers to evers with Fuaci yesterday and the lockdowns by the agrarian loving governors . alll we nee is jay hance to complel the double play… appparently hes holding his fire so far
oof course the number of cases is increasing. however, the daily deaths fromcovid continues to decrease despite alll the incentives to hype the death rate
they threw everything they could at stocks today in a last desperate attempt to sink the incumbent and create economic disaster. however, they didnt give it the fialcoup de grace
Tweets-June/23/2020
thats what the market loves to give you a clear shot but fools yoou into not taking it via deception
ontogeny recapitulates philogeny the market mistesss is very economcal with the price move eveything from 3080to 3140 last 5 days ( witha little exursion for fun 3060- fora few seconds. makes one feel like an idiot that one wasnt able to catch such small range
one of anti Trump memes is that he says that the more testing we do the most cases of viorus youlll find.would think that everyone would agree with that. but that is one of pressies main bones to pick with Prez. we live in polemical and Jacobin times as wsj pts out
dr fauci trying to express his concern and disagreements with eveything Trup.all bears need is for Jay chance gardner to come in with another forecast of decimation of economy. Fauci to Evers to Chance for a double play to attempt to sink economy and Trump
it is itneresitng that dimension finally has something right. they reprot a study that high price to book valuecomppaneis returned 16% per year versus 12% for value stocks over the 19 year s ending 2019. sice then its been more of same
ja doube again after 8 am its completelly random so the market may have to wander without any shorts from ephemeral reasons
the move overnite has been 0.4 exactly the same as ny move from 2011 and since 2019 the moves again is identical 0.6. in both cases
imagine what the Pressies would be saying if the market were swooning. Instead of the sattle trader niping at the heels of thePres, it would be the Pres nippinng at her heels
but in retrospect now that I know the reasons it is good to see that r. Kudlow is on the ball to prevent any market squalls and that his boss is also on alert. its good to have them on guard aginst alll the propaganda . at least they know their last hope is to keep it up.
one of virtues of not folowing the news at all but followingthe price is that the whole apisode of 50 pts downand 70 pts up whichfollowed loose cannon Navarros remarks and Kudlow and Incumbents denial is that one is ignorant or why things happen
another fake reasonto decry the markets rise is that brewski is coming in london and ny and su0pposedoy thhis as important as the icrease in covid cases as testing increases.. however, it is unusuall to see market up today and i may succomb to go against the drift
Tweets-June/22/2020
a symptom of how much hope there is of the economoo cratering and the viruses increasing and the incumbent s prospects thereby declining was the markets 50 pts drop to 3060 at 930 et. in 10 minutes.
https://marketwatch.com/story/he-hates-shorting-the-market-and-lost-a-ton-of-money-betting-against-high-flyers-in-1999-but-hes-at-it-again-2020-06-21?mod=newsviewer_click… " thee is absolutely no reason to own equities now" except for the drift and propganda against t he incombent and the recent close
https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-bayes-theorem-with-ratios/… how much more likely is the pres to beat the cattle trader than for the ivisible man to beat the incumbent
why is news like this suppressed. those who wish more collectivism regulated their n numbers and exposure to make the environment for individualis untenable for reproduction and growth.i.e the predators crowd out the prey
guaranteed not to be reported. the number of daiky deaths frin virus in us at 287 is at a minimu and the % of deaths from those infected at 1% is at a minimum. see Phil Kerpen for proper reporting