Earlier posts · Page 19
Tweets-June/21/2020
incumbent willl exceed difference beteen odds of incumbent versus cattle trader.
shocking decline if last 20 minutes to close at 30454 a erious decline of 3%.. from open of 3144.. ultimately the twin destroyers of Dr. baseball and jay chance gardner were too much for market to withstand. ultimately the difference in odds favoring the invisible man over
Tweets-June/21/2020
incumbent willl exceed difference beteen odds of incumbent versus cattle trader.
shocking decline if last 20 minutes to close at 30454 a erious decline of 3%.. from open of 3144.. ultimately the twin destroyers of Dr. baseball and jay chance gardner were too much for market to withstand. ultimately the difference in odds favoring the invisible man over
Tweets-June/19/2020
as Martie Reisman wuld say " this is a key 10 minutes —– to determine whether we cloose above or below the round
wouldnt i t have been better to say that baseballl may not be poayed this year because baseblll is the quintissential american sport which talkes place at the same leisurely pace as farming used to and most people rend their lives. regardless, pressie are using predctn
cattle trader snapping at Heels of Incumbent https://google.com/search?q=pres+odds+stossel&oq=pres&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j69i59j69i60l2j69i61j5l2.5488j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
you cant suppress jay chance gardner..thrice is not enuf at Princeton for fourth time he now has 2600 down dow pts to his credit. Apparetllly Mr. kudlow must wield a very mercifuo Cat
turn your attention to dinner not a sinner
sp up twice as much as before any quarteroy expiration. a greenish day except bonds manage to be down.cattle trader continues to catch up witn incombent inn pres odds
Tweets-June/18/2020
de rigeur
how capital is to be deployed better than the owners of companies themselves
reminiscent of last year whenever the cattlle trader surged and the prez faltered the market went thru he roof.. until–midnight on election day. why is it that investors favor the decimation of capitalism. do they reallly feel that Pelosi and Jay gardner can decide
a standard day in the market today. appparentlyl the market loves socialism as the pres keeps falling furtehr and further behind with cattle trader having hin in her sights. the invisible man exerts his influence by doing nothing and letting all events be balmed on Prez
much more important woulld be visit with Cat to woodshed with Jay Chance Gardner who seems to have no idea that the sound bites fed to him cause havoc in the sp so far 2500 dow points directly after the three sound bites. with this far behind, the Prez cant afford these
prez seems to be distancing himself from his problem with biden way ahead of him and cattle trader looking at him from below.. he notes that in enthusiasm hes way ahead of biden. perhaps someo
ne should tell him that enthusiasm doesnt count in winning elections
the move from 3pm on Wed to 10 pm . Just 7 hours was 3% down.Perhaps a buying oopportunity as bilious billonaires , trump hateres a ll rest on their laurel and hoopefor a repeat of last Thur 175 pt sp and 2000 ptss dow fall, fall, fall
a topsy turvy world with the Prez's own man sinking the market byy 2500 dow points in just 3 prepared http://phrases.as the cattle trader's chances rise to the level of TRumpps for Prez, the hatred and blame of Trump can cfreate temporary ephemral squal lke today
Market
Is really going vertical here.I remember some vertical markets in 99-2000. Tech then too.
Very interesting atmospheric article that may have market implications, particularly long-wave
Tweets-June/17/2020
so fr the Chairs triple eader has been good for 250 sp points against the prez. 50 yest, 20 today and 150 pts on the fomc. that 2000 dow points/
the cattle traders odds of becoming Prez willl soon surpass the current Prez
3 times the chair has sunk the pres with prepared statements of an invidious nature. once on the fomc and twice on his consecutive Humphey Hawkins testimony. Apparently Mr. Kudlow should have a stern talk with him at the woodshed lest the cattle traders odds of Prez
"without modern precedent " one that coudl permannetly damage the economy" unless ( a more compassionate person currently in his basement but leading by 12 percentage pts in the odds https://electionbettingodds.com tkaes the helm )
a fair weather friend is the worst kind to have in the swamp or chairing the Reserve
will somone telll the chair that he sent market down 5% with his seemingly innocuous remarks that the economy is still weak. or will his assistants refrain from spilling the beans that their answers to his likely questions were designed for that purpose
Tweets-June/16/2020
the autonomous group?
Mr. Chairman i d like to thank you for the comprehensve view youve given us on state of the pandemic, mrkt & the economy my question is are the protest groups and occupy in seattle ( in general those not funded by Mr. Palindrome eligible whether on Main street or route 1
perhaps a bear day at lest until 2 am et
aftr listening to Jay Powells testiminy where the amrket moves 10 points on his every answer " hes infavor of loans to non-profits, mainstreet " anything good . i feel i have not hit bullseye with Mr. Cllophen. He's mabel in poor wandering one take me
mr. cellophane tryig to sink the Pres and giving a fed's consensus anti forceast
perhaps a decline from the open
youtube.com/watch?v=PEM_63_P0CY… so a voice within me keeps repeating fall, fall, fall
not mentioned by the bears is that a big decline in dollar is insanely bull for sp. taking the 7 times when dollar sunk the most over last 10 years,(no overlap) i.e a decline of 10% against the Euro the sp up concurrently every time an average of 600 or 3%
like the beat beat beat of the tom tom the fellow travelers are subtly coming back to decry the economy and in the process add to biden's lead steve roach pppredicts dollar dropp of 1/3 and Leo Cooperman predicts decimation for mom and pop investors. palindrome —
nikkei up 1000 about 5% very bull for sp
the probability in favor of Biden winning election keep getting better now almost 60%. MR. Kudlow must be on guard not to let the tohershoe fall by allowing the swammp against the Pres including Mr. cellophane and the cdc to continue shooting at the Prez
Tweets-June/15/2020
wsj.com/articles/the-data-are-in-its-time-for-major-reopening-11592264199?mod=hp_opin_pos_1… another constructal number at 3100 very close to being requited
the gloom is dampened. the virus marketing dept isinshambles
with the wsj showing that social dsitancing and lockdowns are only effective in increasing biden's lead and dr. rasputin and the cellophane man on their guard against making a monkey out of themselves
he;s palying the cattle market from the short side like the girl he loves
a constrcutable number is ineluctable
October 1987 liquidity
Jordan Neuman writes:
Ralph referenced the liquidity situation on 10/20/87. You can research and see that the S&P Futures settled at a 10% discount to the cash on 10/19. But it was wholly untradeable. For one thing, you couldn't get a broker to answer your call. In a real stress situation liquidity is an illusion. That's one thing the man from Lebanon has right.
Hernan Avella writes:
He only things these analogues of ‘87 are predictive of, is the age cohort of the person that brings them up and his/her relative underperformance to the mkt.
Ralph Vince writes:
Nonsense. Try to overcome your animosities towards others and me and act like a man here.
If you weren't around over a period of a critical couple of days in October, 1987 you don't know, firsthand, what a lack of liquidity in equities and credit instruments is like. If you think that cannot happen again, that the past is not germane to the current environment, or that you are wise enough to see it when it eventually comes, good luck — God' knows you;re going to need it.
Those of us who were around and deeply involved in it back then know full-well that it not only can happen again, but that things are far more precarious now, structurally, than then, for several reasons, each of which independently conspires to make things now far more dangerous.
Michael Cook writes:
Notwithstanding the fisticuffs here, I wasn't around in '87 but I was in the middle of 97/98 when, for instance HKMA went openly and highly aggressively bid only into its currency and equity markets. The message telegraphed was 'we will buy every damn share you sell up to the size of the entire market'. Soros and a bunch of others were having a crack at Hong Kong after doing so well with all the other Asian/paper tigers, esp Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
That was 98, way before GFC, QE and the other myriad of dysfunctional acronyms. If we do face a melt down in the US a la '87. I just dont see why the Fed wouldnt straightforward buy the equity market directly to support it.
What would be stopping the Fed, the feeling that that would be illogical, ultra vires, anti-capitalist? Look at what they have done already?! They are already buying corporate debt (bailed GM and AIG in GFC etc etc etc), it is quite a small jump now to just directly buying Apple common stock etc if needed.
I hate it, and I think it all ends in tears, but that looks the name of the game to me until the system literally breaks and we need do a new Bretton Woods / debt jubilee whatever, where the rules are all reset
Nock
marching thru georgia at the wigwam. like the hoped for decline at 33 55
let us
stop the wrangling and iportuqace position of disparate views on this list as it is demeaning and incppropriate. i dotn understand what the fight is about except no invidiosu comparisons are appropriate. i of course i was there on oct 19, 9187 and it was an options expiations and interest rates was at a high rather than at a low as they are now. there was considerable buying and selling of futures on the merc but it was somewhat difficult to trade individual stocks like berkshire without a big bid asked
American Odds
Alex Castaldo writes:
On this web site https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures the American Odds for Biden to win are quoted as -135 and for Trump +115
For those not familiar with America Odds here is how you convert AO to a probability
if AO < 0:
prob = |AO| / ( |AO| + 100)
else
prob = 100 / (AO + 100)
So the probability for Biden is 135/235 = 0.574
and for Trump 100/215 = 0.465
Richard Owen writes:
What is the origin of the AO format? It was deemed more accessible to punters to speak in terms of $100 units? Is the negative sign subconsciously in front of the favourite to dissuade people from betting the favourite? Old school bookrunners tended to be overweight the favourite winning, but now tend to be hedged?
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
I hate to disagree with Jeff about anything regarding gambling, but he is ignoring what he knows about hedging. The amount of money actually bet online on American politics is - at most - a tiny fraction of what is wagered on sports. The success of DraftKings alone confirms this.
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/help/sports-betting/where-is-sports-betting-legal
The line on Predict-It and other politics wagering sites can be moved with a bet that will have zero effect on any of the dozen parlays that are offered for the next Liverpool match. Since the actual wagering does not need to be balanced by the bookies, they can set whatever line will attract the most attention and give them the most publicity and general traffic. Political odds are used the way Sam Walton used the stacks of peanut brittle when he started with his J. C. Penney stores. He put them on the sidewalk or just inside the entrance and the people walking/driving down Main Street have to take a look.
Biden and his odds are the peanut brittle. Odds favoring Trump would have the opposite emotional effect.
Tweets-June/14/2020
about the virus spreading ( of course its increasing as they test more) stocks are in a good situation . but i'llll wait now for a more propitious time
Germany invented its pas. now the us can if only Trumpwas not a white supremacist…. this is a typical bloomberg article about how bearish and bad things are.. and it stypcal of those who believe in idea that has world. as loog as they re basing things on pseudo news
thus steering mr. cell ophane to bearish humprehyhawkins testimony. at least this ratio is more balanced than the 99% of evaulative articles about the Prez in may 2020 by the 4 major networks besides fox 90% total which were negative compared to the usual
one must assume that 95% of the fed of 2500 fed reserve enployees are supprters of the cattle trader. since the cellophane man is not an expert on eco or markets he mustrey on them for guidance in his testiminy. already the dalls fed kaplan says that the virus is all
dr rasputin says { dont plan on sumer holidays in the us he tells the b ritish( at least oneof my predicitions is validated) i said n or raputic from cdc
never before has there been an open to close down so much with close to close up .its should be a horse race on monday with the billionair bears and the fake increase in viruses ,cellophance man runing aginst the bright retail sales for Tuesday, kudlow ,the signs of recovery
may we anticipate someone from the cdc or another agency feathering its own nest to come out with a warning and a critique against the Trump rally
M. cellophane giving eocnomic update on tue ad wed to what used to be calloed humphrey hawkig https://youtube.com/watch?v=OToWh3nrWn8… as he told Ms. Pelosi "think big" but will he be friendly to the cattle traders as he has in the past
Tweets-June/13/2020
In its inimical efforts to induce the public to make more of a contribution than they have any right to make to the top feeders the market is infitely creative in coming u p with novel landings. perhaspp the most unusual ever was frida. a large rise but a large fall
A large fall on the two day against as metnioneeed a alrge rise on the one day.. never before going back 20 years like this. included i in the similars is a friday march 13 2020 when the market took the largest declines ever on mon down 281 sp pts thats not a misprint
and yet.. its nto so simple. looking just at the directions over the last 10 years and not takign account of the magnitues there is buo… the decoien came becasue the fed cahir must wish to be considered a fellow traveoer fo the democrats also very salient with biden
way ahead in the beting odds.. there are so many fellow travelers out there that its like whack a mole. whenver the prez is not on guard there is a nancy or a dr rasputin from the cdc or a retired agrarian general or some other of the 3mil fed employees 95% against him to do
him in. the Chair is a fine fellow very easy to get along with that knows nothign about monetaroy policy or the economy. now the Prez has to watch out f for what was considered a safe harbor for foundering
hopefully mr. Kudlow willl have a good ta.k with the Chair and tell him that he shouldnt talk about the stock market or such things as his ignoran e could lead to another rout and the Presidents ire and publc humiliaritie of him
Tweets-June/12/2020
continued bullishness as the biden victory looks like a land slide. Kudlow is on guard
a pusillnimus rise today giving the destroyers and hoped for ruination of economy some hope false that it is
Tweets-June/11/2020
was out today to attend Aubrey's graduation from middle schoool. illl have an analysis of how the 18 2 and 3 dyas up and the negative serial correlaltion of the fomc days ppalayed inot the hands of tthe bears.
very quiety the nikei is up 140 from the ny close
followign big moves in tne nikkei in related makets is nto an unprofitaboe strategy yestl nikke down about 1400
you have to hand it to the tripple lay that the billion air bears maek. fisrt they pay for the fanning of revolt and destruction which z hurts theri adversaries. second it creates an unruli situation in the us that make everyone avoid buyng. third it creates empathy with
em[athy with the Serive so that their maneuvers to maintain the compounding without paying the piepr do not go awry what else? of course it helpe=s their shorts and gives them mojo with the pressies. and a visit to the Licoln bedrooom when its apposite
Tweets-June/10/2020
bring in to create vbad lucl is out of the hotel today and doing his bit to destrooooooy value and trump
https://foxnews.com/us/fauci-nightmare-coronavirus-is-far-from-over… the coolet who casinos bring in to create bad uck for customers is out of Hotel again and doing hsi best to destroy value and hurt Trump and economy his whereabouts before election should be monitored
the lst fomc anouncment was witness by a 73 pt rise in sp one can predict withthe coooler out of the Hotel that thisannnouncemntn willl not be greeted by a rise of anything close to that magnitude if you get the (lack of ) drift
its anyone game today with fomc which based on the serial coorr is bearish. also they owere at a good buoll in the last h our. putting it allll together its anyones game. perhaps the anti billnare and social media bils hve day
they caught me and myr prediction at close today. never before like this
Things that make you go hmmmm
This mornings/last nights premarket bond run up, then closely followed by the spu opening run to Chair's constructional round (eventually)… Similar to the big bond run, and the slightly lagged spu run up of Thursday: is it connected? regular?
Guides
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
Mountain guides are an elite group who guide people into the mountains and backcountry around the world. They face high risk and uncertain conditions and their job is to mitigate risk while at the same time pushing the limits of their clients to reach higher heights.
A joke among the guides is that the most dangerous situation they can find themselves in is traveling in the mountains with a group of guides. None of them want to speak up and point out the danger they are getting into for fear of stepping on the other guide's ego, or appearing foolish and other group dynamic issues. In fact, group dynamics is one of the most dangerous elements in backcountry travel. Such heuristic issues as who is the leader, fear of being considered scared (when in fact there is danger), fear of looking foolish, expert syndromes, group think, familiarity heuristics, get home itis, summit fever can contribute to disaster.
A lot of the new list members appear to be high level experienced market professionals from the looks of their intro cv's. Chair is pretty laissez faire, but it's good to contribute without worry. If you're wrong, someone will tell you how wrong you are here, or the market will, and that is good.
Jeffrey Hirsch writes:
Eloquent summation Zubin and inspiring. I look forward to discovering and discussing my many flaws and errors
ExecutedToday.com
| ExecutedToday.com |
| 2015: Khaled al-Asaad, Palmyra archaeologist Posted: 20 Aug 2020 05:23 AM PDT Syrian archaeologist Khaled al-Asaad was beheaded by the Islamic State on this date in 2015 for refusing them the ancient artifacts of his native Palmyra. Eighty-three years old — Palmyra was still a French colony at the time of this birth — Al-Asaad was involved in excavations around that city throughout his adult life. He became the custodian of the archaeological site in 1963 and held the post for 40 years. When the Salafist militant army rolled up on his oasis city that spring.* he helped to evacuate the town’s museum and Daesh put him to torture to extract the whereabouts of the priceless cultural treasures he’d concealed from them. He made himself a hero to Syria and antiquarians alike by denying his captors any satisfaction save his death — which was accomplished by a public beheading. At least one other scholar, Qassem Abdullah Yehya, the Deputy Director of DGAM Laboratories, was also killed by ISIS/ISIL for protecting the dig site. after Khaled al-Asaad bonepole bonepole since you died there’s been dying everywhere do you see it slivered where you are between a crown and a tongue the question still more god or less I am all tangled in the smoke you left the swampy herbs the paper crows horror leans in and brings its own light this life so often inadequately lit your skin peels away your bones soften your rich unbecoming a kind of apology when you were alive your cheekbones dropped shadows across your jaw I saw a picture I want to dive into that darkness smell the rosewater the sand irreplaceable jewel how much of the map did you leave unfinished there were so many spiders your mouth a moonless system of caves filling with dust the dust thickened to tar your mouth opened and tar spilled out |
Zomby
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
According to Chair's twitter theory the market should crash just before the election to screw the incumbent. all the shorts (except Ralph) have gone bust. Ralph will hold and make another 400% on the break.
Covid should be bad and things will be shutting down again like Hawaii where government wants more control to convert business and get rid of excess foreign population. School kids will help the spread.
Localism and xenophobia trends should be strong and the China cold war will depress business. Who will make our stuff? Not Detroit.
The 2-3 month away yield curve inflection reflects something about investors outlook in a negative vein short term. The inflections are new. The bull flattener scenario is in play and the long yield continues to drop and the short end cannot.
This should give time meanwhile for all time highs as the army of new daytraders and short covers buy at 9:45 everyday after the Euros sell US overnight. The 25 points swings are good for daytraders.
Kevin Kirkpatrick writes:
Regarding the supply chain in China, it is not just either China or the US. I don't have the latest update but perhaps the following article will provide some insight.
https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2020-06-24-gartner-survey-reveals-33-percent-of-supply-chain-leaders-moved-business-out-of-china-or-plan-to-by-2023
Cold war with China?!! It has moved beyond the stage of cold war. Trump administration has escalated its hostile actions against CCP but little has been reported by mainstream media and as a result most Americans have very little knowledge about what is going on around the world. I don't mean no disrespect but I tell it like it is. Trump administration finally realizes that talking to or so called negotiating with CCP will end up with nothing beneficial to the US. The most recent arresting of those CCP spies who have ties with People Liberation Army (PLA) is just the tip of the iceberg. I bet more arrests will happen. I can even say that most of the Chinese researchers coming from China in the major US research institutions have ties with the PLA and make them spies by definition. Will the escalation culminate in military conflict in South China Sea? The Jury is still out. I don't want war like many others. But sometimes it is a necessary thing to do to eradicate an enemy who is even much worse than Nazi Germany on many levels.
Tweets-June/9/2020
you cant have breakfast alll day https://youtube.com/watch?v=BMTKH-Fwuac… nor is it the plight of a sinnner when breakfast is taken away to turn his attention to dinner
nor is he a glutton when tired of beef to turn his attention to mutton at 900
billionaires having a field day myfriendc ontributes 33 mill to black lives matter. and the billlion market data firm proving that the unempoyment rate is really 40% rather than 13%
Tweets-June/8/2020
as the market goes up, bidens lead in the betting odds goes up .this is very bull for sp as the prez team dare not say anything noot in accord with the Idea… but after 18 two and 3 day up, I still favor the short side. they owe the shorts a good day on Tues
Tweets-June/7/2020
after 17 2 and 3 days up i ll be taking the plunge sometime on the short side shortly
anotherpredicitionicecreamstoresandbaseballlandapplepiecontestswillbeinalockdownuntlcattletraderandminionscometopower
lets play the round number game for a while until it cracks
Tweets-June/6/2020
stocks up more than 50% higher than ever before after an unemplooyment annnoucnement
nobody aske me but/ the dept of labor must have some new bosses that dont believe in camp Kicaid. 2. there are a group of pooliticians who are unhapppy with any good eocnomic news. why is this besides their fear that good economic news will help trum. 3. the stock markets
stocks response to the employment analysis was twice as god as ever beforfe in its ihistory. 4. bond moved up a pt in last hour of trading Friday and this shows that the stock market rise is now over as does the weak close on Friday.5. as the populace became less indiviidualist
secretary of Labor e. scalia has 7 children and i predict that none of them will go to camp kincaid where they sing the Russian anthem mornings . he worked for A.G> barr and presumably would not have tweaked the numbers down like his preds. if only we have new appntees at cdc
ths should be stock market rise not over as it would have been if bonds adn stocks cratered at close
what kind of sense of life do people like bide and schuemr gravitate into where they deplore any good news
ttle trader and her minions like pelosi, schumre,b iden who deplore any economic and stock market gains.tat is ony hope for Pres whostill lags in bettingn odds by a few percentage poimts
nobody 5. if the cattle trader had been in office the marketing dept of the virus would be decimated
stock market rise not over=originally misprinted now over
Tweets-June/4/2020
the wsj market watch is as replete with bear and w oke as bloom. today theyhghighted a story about climate change having a bigger bear impact than the virus.. moves of stocks u p are attrib to buyers ignorance and indifference to bad news when a mrk goes up it flirts
with mr biden;s lead in the betting odds coninung to soar, now 7 percentage pts… alllthe pre eeds to thoroughly sink is chances is a contination of the bear market. prsmbly he a nd mr kudlow know this. that must be vry bull for the sp
the one fly in the ointment is that bodnsa re finally actingrationally and going down on the crony intervention
https://wsj.com/articles/why-mr-market-ignores-a-world-in-turmoil-11591272919?mod=hp_lead_pos10… market is partying while the world crumbllllles
Tweets-June/3/2020
nikkei threatening to go into berish territoryfor sp
a series of 3 y ellows . shown on daily http://speculations.com
finaly bonds showing revulsion of all spending to bail out cronies at 1month low
market looks like it willl break mr. round and then go down at opening.
two images https://abcnews.go.com/Health/video/police-arrest-father-park-alleged-coronavirus-social-distancing-70037185… one of father being handcuffed for playingb aseballl with daughter,. the other the start of little league in Iowa. apparently the market evaluates both and thes acles tip bull
uncle. it seems equally likely to go above the round as to crater. i learned lesson
Tweets-June/2/2020
the other shoe dropped.. jOE biden leads Trump in the Betting odds with 45 million bet in the Lott Stossel pool.amazingly this is hapening while the stock markets all over sett new highs and the Greenies are having a field day. why?
extremely narrow day with 10 pt range on al halfhours. the bigs dont like this as they grid=nd out a rofit not sufficient to cover their amssive fixed. costs. xpect some amsive volatilith tne nex few days. i willll provid e an answer to the pressies hostage as impct
it had to happen . afater alll these 20 day highs i couldnt resist trying a little shortf rom 3087 one is ashamed to be shor t going agianst drift….. but the violence and surge by biden o hate trump tips the wscalels for me
Tweets-June/1/2020
apparently crowds in schools and churches are forbidden but crowds destroying businesses are okay if for a good cause
caa i i get you a drink? how soros? believe i saw him at the airport. but th egame's not over yet lets play
after a series of 20 day highs bears finally got a break today with a down day, down 0.25, giving them a chance to cover
shorts after down day what;s going to happen one guess is that any falls willbe great buying opport following methods of Sam Eisenstadt modified by vic
3350
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9631.pdf
They say there is a correlation between yield curve term structure and volatility.
Larry writes:
Curve is still up and positive
Who loves ya Kamila
Michael Brush writes:
So the market got wind of this early and sold off near the close ahead of the announcement?
Futures down post announcement.
Adam Friedman writes:
Futures are actually up a little— I think market was nervous it was going to be Susan Rice.Kamala has friends on wall st
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
The reason I don't trade is that I never, ever understand how "Wall Street" thinks when it comes to political events. How could the choice of Ms. Harris be anything but a disaster for the Biden campaign? Trump now has no worries about producing videos that criticize Joe Biden; his campaign can just run the clips from the campaign of Harris accusing Biden of being a racist, sexist…Then they can pull the videos of her being "touch on crime" in California with punitive sentencing for black people. She comes from a state that the Democrats cannot possibly lose; at least Kaine won Virginia for Clinton. In the polls that his campaign took before the primary contest with Mrs. Clinton, Barack formerly known as Barry discovered that one of his serious weaknesses was among African-Americans, many of whom questioned whether or not he was truly "black". What the campaign discovered was that those questions all went away as soon as voters were presented with images of his wife and children. Someone who was considered a possible liability for the campaign became the essential partner; that is part of the explanation for how Michelle Obama became "the most admired woman in the world''. Kamala Harris may be thought of as a "black" candidate by white people; there is going to be considerable doubt about whether black people will apply that label to a woman who is the child of a "mixed" marriage and is married to a "white" man who has adult white children from a previous marriage.
Let's have a vote from the trading floor; who takes the over on Michelle Obama's being willing to risk her untouchable popularity by publicly embracing Kamala Harris and doing campaign commercials?
Michael Brush writes:
If anything about the current political environment makes sense, you probably have mental issues
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
So, MB, is that a vote for the over?
Tweets-May/31/2020
hold alll tickets ordianrily the reguoarities would be bearish but thsis first day of moh=nth. yet the times has a feature article in magazine saying that the stock marekt is crazy for going up and has lost it s value inallowing the public to participate
times says that the stock marke t no loonger gives the public the chance fo participate in the enterprise sysytem and reap the returns that corp make o their capital investments l thus, the drift is gone? as long as there is ignorance of the magic that is the enterprice
the magoc os decroe dby tjhose who believe in idea that has world in its grip and causes the decimation of economic activity from the marketing department of the virus
the return oninvested capital of the fang stocks is order of 40% and their cost of cpital with interest rates at zero is much lower. the market looks to long term roc l not next year and average of next ten years. this has nothng to do with virus today
the greenies were in total control on friday the last day of month of 30 times the greenies wore big hats sinc e 2019 it wasd nothing special
but even though eveything is donw, sp has never been down this much as of 1 am so one does not refrain from going against times
we note that the cattle trader is active in commenting about market. and this emphasized to me that if female cattle trader has been in the presidency we would never have heard about corona. and her biggest supporter at the cdc would be calling for more basketballl
the marketing dept of the virus does not like thihttps://www.wsj.com/articles/is-it-safe-to-reopen-schools-these-countries-say-yes-11590928949?mod=hp_lead_pos.. nor do those who hope to destroy hapiness and normal life before nov
Tweets-May/30/2020
from Mr. Diranyi on spec list comes an opportune and timeless post R Dirani Fri, May 29, 11:44 PM (9 hours (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8ogu
the odds on the presidentail election keep narrowing to pcik em with 3% pts only 48 to 45 seperating the two likely candidates. this
must be very bullish for sotck arket as no matter whant the pres does or what hapens the media willl hold i against him the only arrow in
only arrow in prez quiver is the stock market. he must keep it high and not do anything to drop it down as he didnt do on friday with presumably wise man's kudlows advice to maintain the revent 40% rise bak to year end levels.
Tweets-May/27/2020
they owe us a break thru constructal number hopefully we wont have to wait until close
locusts in afria eu headed for worst case slump, honk kong losing its independence nasdaq crates on idiotic pres threats typicao headlines form billlionaire site today
perhas give the bears a little something today to prepare them for the deluge subsequently
Tweets-May/26/2020
naure works to reduce the abundance of rabbits in the seasons that willl have scarcity of resouces. https://wsj.com/articles/the-blue-state-lockdown-blues-11590446582?mod=hp_opin_pos_3… nature also works too reduce abundance of those not prepared for life( the displaced in the idea that has wrold in grip
as alll constr'uctal numbers have been reached ther are no predictions for todya..its anyones game
the grass is green the lilacs are fragrant, and the spouses loook like marilyn monroa and frank sinatra
guaranted to happen. dems stilll hope for destruction and devestation and bust in economy. what kind of sense of life is this. " what can i take from you? whatcna yougive me? the clarion call of an agrarian
nobody asked me but do certain reporters for a major news and data center get paid a bounty for finding negative articles abot the stock market or economy so as to hurt trumps chances. today at 340 was a nice case in pt deserving a good bonus
welll a certain billionaire's market data firm was able to temporarily knock the market down 20 points at 340 pmet on tues but the costructal number refuses to be hoodwinked by yet another anti trump story from the agrarian firm. if one ever sees an optimistic economy
if an optimistic story on economy or stock market ever appears on that agrarian pressie then please alert me and i[ll eat crow raw ,squawking and fully feathered
Tweets-May/25/2020
all stock markets within a gnats eyelasth , and heading for constructal numbers 3000 in sp. 21000 in nikkei,1,, 11500 in dax. .
there is unequivocal evidence that the prevalence of sickness in school age children is incrediblly low. see phil Karpen on this for voerwelming wihtin and between country data on this. But what was it guarajteed to happen that schools woud be locked down
the reason is that education is very beneficial for school age children. people that believe in idea that has world in its grip are led by an invisible evil hand to decrease the abundandance and survivability of their children versus others
a good summary article on what Phil Kerpen and all thespec listers have been enumerating for the past month https://aier.org/article/focus-on-the-covid-19-death-rate/… and the reason that stock markets are about to blast thru constructal numbers
victro hugo's novel the manwho laughs concerns a disfigured man , a monster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Who_Laughs… who is 16h century examplar of the collectivists who closed schools in those days ( i have to think this thru better)
tow interesting posts from the wsj leettters. 1. Deaths don't consider the factors of co-morbidities. A (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8j83
first shoe drops on constructals with nikkei 21043
one of the pillars os destroying self interest ( the idea grip etc) is to keep kids away from schools these is ample evidence that chiiodren's death rates a re much lesw than the flu. but the other side of cooin is can theytransmit it to party officials and teachers
there is much mumbo jumbo about this with all sorts of armchair speculations that it is possible for a aprty official or congressman or teacher or cdc worker to cathch it. but the empiricla evidence is
no case reported . this info must be suppressed so that shchools remain closed and kids wth parents that beleive in idea hthat has world in its grip willl nnot be educated and willl be at a great disadvantege in life
seond partiial sock fallls dax up form 111000 at close fridayto 11413 now. perhaps 115000 is seocn dshe worthy
mark cuban believes in idea but is often sensible to live with risk. The NBA is looking to restart in late (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8jcm
mark cuban believes in idea but is often sensible to live with risk. The NBA is looking to restart in late (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8jco
Mr. mandel at phil terpen poitns out that themainstrea media is beginning to cover the excess deaths not realted to covid caused by the lockdowns. he suggests that one cause of excess deaths wiooo be the numerous peoople with cancer that had tow ait 4 or 5months to be treat
but here i dsiagree with him. most chmothrapies only add 1 or two months to life expectancy at the cost of totaldsiruption to life and happpiness. teh dellays will not increase thenumber of cancer deaths imho
Recessions
Ralph Vince writes:
I went to look at past recessions beginning with the one that officially started in Aug '1929. I looked that the number of months, the recession officially lasted for what the highest teh unemployment rate got up to was, what the lowest GDP dropped during it, and the drop in the DJIA. there were 14 official recessions in this period (Iam not counting the current recession we are in).Interestingly, the correlation between the depth of the unemployment rate and the number of months the recessions lasted for was .8438. I other words, the deeper the unemployment rate, the longer the recession lasted for to a very high correlation.
The depth ofGDP drop too was highly correlated to the months the recessoin lasted to a correlation of .75.Every recession saw market drop-off of varrying degrees with the least being -5.727% from fb to october 1945, the worst -89.19% from Aug 1929–Mar 1933 Of the 14 recessions, 10 saw market drops >20%, and 4 of those saw drops >45 %.
So I would expect this recession to last a long tim based on unemployment and GDP so-far. However, even though all recessions saw a market drop, th severity of the market drop and the length of months the recession lasted was only +.03. The other factors that correlated to market drop during recessions was depth of unemployment rate correlating positively by .12 to depth of market correction, and depth of GDP drop correlating positively to market drop by .35.
Peter Ringel writes:
Damn Ralph! Incredible call today.
Ralph Vince writes:
No but I thought it would be on much havier volume., 111/2 tims what we saw today.
Hernan Avella writes:
maybe with more volume we get to 2150 by labor day, as you vehemently forecasted
4th amendment bye bye
JEFFREY WATSON writes:
Do you own a significant amount of acreage?
Say goodbye to the Fourth Amendment because it only applies to your
residence per SCOTUS.
Trail cams can be installed on your property by State or federal
officials without a warrant. Who ever knew??
https://www.agweb.com/article/government-cameras-hidden-private-property-welcome-open-fields
Ralph Vince writes:
hmmm, is it that much of a stretch from a silent drone over your
property by the government or private party camming the goings on? (not
that I think that is ok either, I do not. I recommend a good co2 bb gun
for such incursions
Peter Saint-Andre writes:
This very issue came up recently in my neighborhood (semi-rural area
outside Denver).
The answer, according to the local sheriff's office, was:
Drones are classified by the NTSB as aircraft (same as a Cesna 172 or
other small plane) which makes shooting one down a federal crime and can
lead to federal charges/fines/jail time. DON'T TAKE MATTERS INTO YOUR
OWN HANDS.
What if a drone appears to be recording me in my own backyard? While you
do own your property, you do not own the airspace above it. The
airspace above your home is considered a "public thoroughfare" which
classifies it the same as a public roadway. The courts have determined
that a there is no reasonable expectation of privacy in your open
backyard like you have inside your home, so there is nothing that can be
enforced if they are recording you on your property when it is from a
public space.
Ralph Vince writes:
Their argument is pure intimidatory nonsense. Pure Jesuit MO.
The reductio ad absurdum….an unknown aircraft approaches me, in my backyard, at eye level….there is clearly no federal protection, to the contrary, I have a natural right to protect myself. Similarly, a drone, several hundred feet above me, is a physical threat to me. like every other creature on earth, I assume something silently stalking me has nefarious intent.This law was no doubt paid for by Amazon with the help of deep state law enforcement another commercial interests. Flying gizmos like that should be identifiable from the ground, something with a genuine commercial purpose should have no problem being identifiable as such. Anything without you can assume has nefarious intent.I'm not comfortable with something on Mart silently hovering outside somebody's daughters window
What Makes a Good Mother?
Laurel Kenner writes:
Gentlemen, your assistance is requested. As my son enters high school, I am earnestly seeding guidance on how to be a good mother during these next four crucial years. As I understand it, he needs validation and a clean house in all senses of the phrase, and not too much direct advice. I don't want him to become an adult with mommy problems, and I don't want him to go so wild that he spoils his later life. Specs, please share your thoughts. What are your most vivid memories of your mother during these years? How did she help or hurt? What makes a mother of a teenage son good or bad?
kurtsskurtss writes:
Avoid all lecturing/preaching/cajoling. Instead, ask questions and try to act like a friend or confidante, way more than a parent. If he trusts that you will not be judgmental, but instead will be a good listener and help him to recognize potential outcomes for various actions, he will be willing to share more of his life with you.
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
Give him well defined specific tasks he must do to get his allowance or a specified reward of his own choice. He can choose the tasks. Could be wash dishes twice a week or clean his room one a week. Could be all A's. Control behavior using incentives. Use of authority is useless as is an appeal to reason. Kids don't think.
Write down the tasks on a calendar and check off performance as an agreed contract. Put in writing for bigger or long term rewards such as a car for no smoking or drugs till 16.
Big AI writes:
One thing i'll offer is this: once the average boy crosses the puberty
threshold, it's like somebody poured gas on him and lit him on fire.
most of his mental bandwidth becomes focused on girls and negotiating
all of that, especially in school where there are all these girls who
have crossed the threshold too. and at the same time, this new
dynamic that is dominating his life is something he doesn't want to
talk to his mother about.
Paolo pezzutti writes:
We are parents. Not friends nor advisors nor confidants…..
Not even task organizers. Our role in my view is to transmit values. Just that. Transmit values which are the main tools to live their life. They will then choose their objectives. Establish their priorities and tasks. Live their sex life. Values are the core issue.
larry writes:
Teach him to cook, wash clothes and iron. It will make him self sufficient
Jonathan Bower writes:
I'll second this. Additionally, in Scouting many ideals are worthy of pursuit to round out a person's character and skills.
Tweets-May/23/2020
nobody aske me but 1. the sp would have set new highs on Friday except for thecHINESE ANNOUNCEMENT ON GNP. 2. aS IT IS THE MARKET HASNT SET NE X DAY HIGHS SINCE Wed may 24 when it closed at 2069 just 13 pts away from Friday's close.3 its only a matter of a gnat
before sp exceeds the high 8 days ago and then barrels to the constructal number of 3000. 4. talking about the wrorld gone mad. Gov. Cuomo has been roundly criticizd foro the incredible nummber of nursing home deaths in Ny. His defense is its the Prezz's fault since
https://foxnews.com/politics/cuomo-blames-trump-nursing-home-debacle-new-york-coronavirus… the cdc and cma recommended that nursiing home sshould take those with virus. since when does the Prez control the agencies whose actual political contirubtion are 95% not
contributions too cattle traders. 3. Elmer Keltonoo has wisomd about futurues trading that is resonant to alll who have fee t on ground. Hee's talking to a wool buyer " hows wool charlie asked knowing he had never met a wool buyer who didnt say the market was on verge
the mills havent made a dime this year{ the buyer said. The futures market slipped 3 points yest . grease (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8h45
Tweets-May/22/2020
everythings bak to preceding bulll china exerted a temp decline but hoiday cheer should trump it
i realize that i could have been more helpful in the evening. I got blindsided by the chinese response and fellt there could be a further decline below 2930 and i cant stay awake a few days in row any more. it did decline to 2904 but i got them bak and it rite this morn
all the quants , quasi docs , statistcians on spec list are ask " where is the evidence that locikdowns worked? they site numerous xmples that it didnt work. . mr. vince adds that itsure worked in ruinng the economy. i add to that " what does that have to do with stock
Mr. karpen is a veritable cornucopia of balllast against the idea ths hs world in grip (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8fev
i go bak to my post about the food suply and reproduction in rabbits adjusting to the rainfall. the rabbits are abundant before good grass. the cattle traders in the world are not fit in this world and have to suffer the price in abundance wherever they are led by
whevever the cattle traders are led by or believe in idea that has world in its grip, they and especially their children suffer in abundance and productivity
once more into the breech
Tweets-May/21/2020
another trick shot of ephemall nautre by the bears destined to pay the penalty for such a bold and nopeless dodge
the ephemera l decline continues to the morning hours. it may not berefuted for a day or two. it looks like too hasty ac all bby me. have to get them later
Tweets-May/20/2020
The constructal number , the bane of those who hold the idea that has the word in its grip beckons
a fine player knows never to see a trap for his opponent. a drop shot is always a loser .. a good board player uses strategy not tactic . he never expects a goo d oponent to amke a mistake. when he sets a trap for oppoonent he might as well resign.
in that context the ip at yesterdays close can be seen as a futuile attempt by mr. market and those who hope for further destruction and bear to set a loosing trapp fro which they are paying dearlyll today and the future for
a rather timid 50 pt rise. but one doesnt look a gift horse in the mouth
a 20 day high yet again but without a final crescendo. a waiting move
Tweets-May/19/2020
on the spec list larry and i are sharing divergent views for the first time since we came out together in Tokyo so that we would be more in the mainstream. he is using theadvance delince which is not part of the golden machine that he positied for stocks to make money for
stoocks make money for public by giving them the oportunitey to buy them for profits especially in times of uncertainty and to take account of the drift.. but he is against the golden machine rite now and I am with it
very narrow 10 pt range from 930 open.. how can public make more thanusual contribution
they had a nice 50 pt decliine from 239 pm et to tehcoose very deceitful and masterful
fireworks like end of a chess game where both players are runing out of time. reminds me of the duke north car basket game where duke was behind 10 pts with 90 sec to go. duke won in second overtime afteshanking a foul shot with 1 sec,to go , scoring on jump to ti in reg
Pew Research Poll
This is, in so many ways, an extraordinary Presidential race. I have gone through every past election and tried to find an analog, and I cannot. The 1832, 1864, 1972 races were all re-election campaigns by incumbents who were broadly hated, but none had the opponent's primary attraction in August being that he was not the President. 1864 comes closest with people wondering what McClellan had to offer besides not being Lincoln.
One Frequentlly Sees
The adage " he's simple person playing checkers while ths sophisticated person is playing chess". Nothing could be further from thetruth. Modern life is replete with electronics. , transistors, and computers. they work on states of on and off- high voltage or low voltage, true or false. Theyese components form the basis for computers. They dont use a decimal system but sometimes they are groupe dont 8 bits of on or off. THey binary system can come up with very complaice=ated and sophisticated devices . Checkers is lie a binary game. you can move forward only one apace diagonally and if there is another checker in your way you skip over it adn take it. it leads to cery coplex situations. The good checker player mus be able to make 80 exact moves to win may standard games. he must meomorize as many games as chess and be able to visualize the board. mot good checker plaerys can paly 6 or 10 games blidolded. The level of expertise in checkes is such that it took 8 computers mny years of tryijg all permutations on many powerful computers to come up with a solution. a good playercan playeven wtih these computers ………. the best checker player of all time Marion Tinseley constantly invented news ways of winning and preventing losses. The fact that checkers is a binary game and by extension a hexa decimal tame by strinigin 3 moves together the way they do in most tournaments makes checkers a nxcellent game for logical thinking sues in all electronic circuits and arithmetic compuations. chess on theother hadn has so many moves that is is an appropriate game that simulates ancient warfare rather than modern electronics. ( tobe continue and refined
Deflation Is Not My Cup of Tea
At the risk of being lambasted again, one of the things Keynes was first to
understand was the difference between economic theories versus how the world
actually works. He was a behavioral economist before there was such a word.
For example, Inflation or Deflation should be equally tolerable by the
rational economic man. But in practice it is not so. No one likes a pay-cut
even if the hard currency is theoretically more valuable. Deflation
eventually leads to lost confidence, unemployment, economic stagnation,
strikes and rioting. ( see the 1930's UK) It just does not fit human nature to
feel better off with less cash.
But inflation works just fine in both theory and practice. (not hyper
inflation though). And that is what every developed country has practiced
since the 1970's. Wages generally go up to appease us worker-bees.
Governments can spend and borrow like there is no tomorrow and then inflate
the debt away. No one really calculates the implicit tax in a decreasing
currency valuation. The rich never hold cash anyway. The working man doesn't
save enough for it to matter. Assets priced in dollars go up. In effect all
government policy is Keynesian now. It is written into the Fed charter to
target inflation. The Treasury has not balanced an annual budget in 20 years.
Believe me I prefer the elegant work of Hayek, Hazlitt, Uncle Milty and most
of all Thomas Sowell, but this is not our present world.
It would be an interesting thought experiment to imagine a world of balanced
budgets, decreasing credit and a strong dollar policy. I posit is would be
quite bad for stocks. The last time the US balanced the budget was during the
Clinton years 1998 to 2001. They actually suspended Treasury bond auctions for
a period. Shortly after we entered a 3-year bear market. We are nowhere near
such a world now. All of this is a long-winded way of saying if the choice is
between having the best model and making money, I will go with the later.
Tweets-May/18/2020
CCP overplayed their hand and whatever advantage obtained by virus release is in the process of being (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8b0v
sp is in the catbird seat with bonds near alow crude up 400% for the 16 th day up in row … how about a little deception before stock move to new high
if ony they can keep dr. rasputin in the closet
may i make a humble suggestion>> when the vaccine is ready. let us prioitize not only health care workers but memebers of the cdc who have devoted so much effort to inform us of the risks and models
if an objective measure of the compassion and sensibility of those prioritize is appropriate , let us examine now only how much they contributed to blue politicians but especaiillly how their spouses and children contributed
of course the moderna results have a millio gaps and randoms in them doubtless someelse will trump their baby . but of course that has noth9ing to do with why the market should be up.. its been a long time between highs
and more improtant its becoming incrweasinglyh obious to peoppel who ivest that the lockdowns , the beseeching for handouts is a instantiation of the idea that has the worod in its grip. the pandemic would have been di rigeur without the agrarins using it to trump trump
illl have another old fashined. bonds finally reacting
the deception was a possum. waited and waited and finally got away fast
a little thanatopsis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apparent_death
market stilll has some bounce in it. a nice 6- day high to establsh a foudation. tomorrow could try a oittle terrible decline at times
thats a 60 day high
Tweets-May/17/2020
there have been many crises that have hiit Americans in last 150 years. Ordinarily the country a nd economy bounces back to new highs/ and thus enables the 10% a year drift in sp. but now its clear that a whole swath of the pop ( call them agrarians or displaced
those who believe in the idea that has the world in its grip, i.e. self interest inad indiviualistm must be eradicated will do anything to prevent the economy from getting bak to normal. straws in the wind everywhere. to me the reluctance to allow baseball bak is key indicia
many numbers show that the % of school age kids that die from virus and % that transmit it to others is close to zero, like the cahnces of getting bit by a shark. why are schools beinn closed> all their funding and training and people are believes in idea in grip
scenes from the life of Elmer Kelton, voted the best western writer by Spur. " dadddddddd didnt like the way (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr89v4
https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/… if new york shows it this low with all their incentives to hype the fitgures it must be close to zero
sure enugh dr. fauci is exhibit number 1 as to why sports stadiums cant continue to have games. " if people have to social distance , so be it "
Tweets-May/15/2020
another day from mother market with just a smalll range of 30 pts frm 2835 to 2863 just 28 pts. how in Hades can the public pay their way for the gigantic infrastructure and expensive equipment when there's just a 30 point range. expect a wild ride today during the day
the greenies are still in control withtne nikkei resting above 20000 and bonds refusing to go d own for fourht day in row with oil up 300% for 15 th day in row. we should thank a certain options broker for dropping 1000 million to make the oild market go up 3000% intwo weeks
The greenies are doing less pull ups now that sp is down almobt 30 but theywill ahve their day
why do states with most interventio policies have the highest death rates what does this have to do with mother nature adjusting the rabbit pop to the amount of feed available? a thought engendered by the time it never rained by elmer kelton the audible version is best
a sad story about orange county the death rate from covid is 3 per 1000000 yet all the resorts are locked down . they have to believein theidea that has the world in its grip to survice and prosper. and that idea buries them the balance of nature
remembrace of things past. nikkeiabove200000 againand bonds are dw nandstcks treatenng to go higher.. the baseball season reminds us of things past when it was invented as an agrarian discipline
nikkkei playing footsie with 20000 level
Tweets-May/14/2020
unusual action in sp tonie a range of just 27 pts . how can public make a nice contribution to infrastructue with such small. also unusal is resilience of sp with nikkei and dax cratering and bonds up a pt
nice unnoticed 200% continuous rise in crude in last two weeks.
correction . amazing resilience of sp versus dax very bear fo sp today but bull overnite and tomorrow
perhaps a bounce in sp from 900 am to 10 am et
nikkei bouncign from down 3% at 19712 to 19745 at 9am
perhaps bouncing is over based on the amzing overperformance of sp to other markets
https://investing.com/indices/japan-225-futu… weakness in other markets gathers steam with bonds exerting negativeinfllllllllluence also
tremendous u p moves in dax and niikkei of 200 a;ace make mr. round from below look viable from sp
now we can see wha tthe low range of 25 pts from high to low as of 9am lured one into and provided ample opportunnity fro the public to do the wrong thing. on thing is constant . the strong will take from the weak
the greenies are having a field day
Michael Chekalin
Replying to
Great job Vic. Not a single call you made (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr872i
Tweets-May/13/2020
a very sagacious man has a very surprising and a priori unliikely prediciton
should be nice sp for asian markets at least
the most salieint things in news to me as they effect the market are the two repubocans that won close races unexpectedy and the growing awareenss that the death rate from cooroa is very similar to flu that the # of fatalatics has been vastly overestimated.
also the growing movement by the common mand and woman to add the contributions they make to bettermetn in their jobs regardoess of the hgher amount they make on unemployment.
the market has had its mandatory bout of breakig the round # of 2800 from above
Sanitizers and Masks
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
Although mechanistic studies support the potential effect of hand hygiene or face masks, evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza. We similarly found limited evidence on the effectiveness of improved hygiene and environmental cleaning. We identified several major knowledge gaps requiring further research, most fundamentally an improved characterization of the modes of person-to-person transmission.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article
Jeffrey Hirsch writes:
Wow! So then what was responsible for flattening the curves or slowing the spread? Nothing? Time?
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
JH: The answers that the mask and shield-wearing medico who earns here daily bread by examining and diagnosing people at non-social distances offers are these: (1) no one knows exactly how viral infections "spread", (2) no one knows how or why they grow and then decline among populations, (3) people with poor health suffer more than people with good health, but, as with lung cancer and heart disease (to take the 2 most common examples), some people escape the likely consequences of their bad profiles and others who should be fine sicken and die, (4) exchanging the air and scrubbing it with filters AND requiring both patients and medical personnel, including office workers, offers the best odds of reducing general risks of infection because it increases the oxygen levels and reduces the "carbon" levels and that, in almost all situations, helps us human air-handling machines. But the masks need to be changed almost as frequently as surgical gloves to be effective; wearing the same mask for hours at a stretch has zero likelihood of restricting any kind of airborne infection and is guaranteed to have the same kinds of adverse consequences that people get from not changing their water filters within the time limits of their functional capacities.
What she and her Dad think was and is monumentally stupid is to have shut down and continued to reduce access to doctors and medical treatment in the name of keeping emergency rooms free. That is what we have decided to call General Staff thinking of the first order - the same kind that discouraged the development of automatic weapons for soldiers on the grounds that they would "waste" the ammunition.
Henry Gifford writes:
Part 4, about “exchanging” the air and scrubbing it with filters and increasing Oxygen levels and decreasing “Carbon” levels sounds flawed to me.
Most modern commercial buildings in North America, including office buildings and hospitals, typically have systems that gather air from many rooms and put it into a common tube (“duct”) from where it goes through a filter and then a fan and then something to heat or cool the air, and maybe mix in a small % of outdoor air, then return it to all the rooms the air was removed from. Described another way, any airborne viruses in one room will be distributed to all the rooms served by that system, with a small % sent outdoors. Just how many people get sick this way is something that is politically incorrect to discuss or research in the buildings or building design industries, as these systems are the most expensive and profitable to design and install.
Even the fanciest filters have only a small chance of trapping something as small as a virus. People’s respiratory systems expel viruses coated with some water and other materials, in droplets of widely varying sizes, some of which fancier filters can catch, many of which even the best filters will unlikely catch. And retrofitting the fancy filters requires greatly increasing the size of the fan and the motor and the wires that supply electricity to the fan, which almost never happens. A normal air filter is there mainly to keep the equipment free from clogging by relatively large dust particles.
As for adding Oxygen and removing “Carbon,” (Carbon Dioxide exhaled by people), normal leaks in a building provide sufficient Oxygen replacement and Carbon Dioxide removal. Actual ventilation is beneficial for other reasons, but is not necessary for adding Oxygen or (generally) removing Carbon Dioxide. Submarines in WW2 had zero ventilation when submerged, yet running out of Oxygen was never a problem – poisoning with Carbon Dioxide was a problem long before Oxygen deprivation. Absorbent chemicals were used to absorb Carbon Dioxide. Some research in modern buildings has advocated higher ventilation rates as a result of supposedly finding correlation between higher Carbon Dioxide levels (>1,000 PPM) and lower worker performance, but I haven’t heard any talk about adverse health implications at Carbon Dioxide levels found in buildings.
Systems do exist that provide 100% outdoor air to buildings of any type and size, but these systems use very little energy and save space and are quieter, but are inexpensive and simple to design and install and maintain, thus they are not very popular. Even with all the talk about ventilation now, nobody seems to distinguish between “exchanging” used air or new outdoor air – not even a part of the conversation so far.
As a child
Alan Millhone writes:
We all played Checkers on those awful red and black boards , so most consider a child's game as you simply move the pieces with reckless abandon.
Chess looked daunting with the different pieces moving in different directions.
Thus the difference in perception as to both games perceived levels of difficulty.
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
binay numbers like checkers moving forward and backwards 1 square can creae a computer or all electronic logic circuits. that's the way computers do comutation. leads to extremely complicated situations. the lessons from binary moves are more important than contrived moved of chess on an old fashioned war games board. . all good checker players can lay 8 games blindfolded simulatneiosu like pillsbury. etc
Tweets-May/8/2020
a goood article from the wsj for those individualists who have not listened to the bears
https://wsj.com/articles/a-growing-impatience-with-the-lockdown-extremists-11588957811?mod=hp_featst_pos2… heres the article. . like many older persons a good book, show or article like thisi one elicits many past experiences and causes one to cry.
as m the principal of my elementray school said to me. "youshoudl knwo better your fatehr is a cop" worse than dr ferguson is dr. fauci . he should know better because he's in the field and hides his agendawhy can t we all stay at home many umemplooyed receiving more money then when they were at worik with the (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr80fi
why can t we all stay at home many umemplooyed receiving more money then when they were at worik with the (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr80fi
Tweets-May/7/2020
the grass is green, the flowers are in bloom and every market looks great. what can the top feedeers do to gain food at the expense of public today?
how about a nice ephemeral decline on the unemployment annnouncemts before nikkei hits 20000 and spf hits 2900 on the way to constructal numbers
all the rounds have been broken. the only question is whether Frida willl make the as usual a new 60 day high at 20445. Biden seems like he'll be reaping the whirlwind only other question is why bonds were up on Thur. new stages in economy to come with all malinvestment
Tweets-May/12/2020
today so that there will be universal income for and mediare for all. " let it rip" schumer said in an effor t to take back the senate and destroy the economy at same time
however, we note that the last big high occured on 4 - 29 . just 7 days ago.." have you tested that" willl the numbers trump the anti trumps?
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/oil-trader-loses-millions-on-brokerage-glitch-2020-5-1029186688… a great modern example of " the chickens coming home to roost" Perhaps the chicken should be hung around the great option trader head of fine firm neck
the markets ae wearing green berets this morning. how can they induce the publc to lose?
the drs gave us the business yesterdaay now 8 days and a 100 big points since the last big high
Tweets-May/10/2020
keys to game updays in a row: very strong close:beginnings of reulsion in bonds: histeresis in stocks: refusal to understand that stocks czn be strong when economoy is weak: what else
The old fashioned
Quantity theory of moeny with production down and money up leads to inflation . and provides an antidote to the harmful government substitution of production work with expanded emoluments and setting the basis for marxism and loss of free enterprise
NGO Vote
It is still way too early to make an educated guess about the Presidential election. It is not too early to examine what each side should be doing to win.
If I got 2016 right, I absolutely blew it on 2018 because I failed to see how completely the Democrats had succeeded in permanently winning the NGO vote. That is my label for all the people in the United States who do not believe in profit and loss. That is NOT to say that they do not believe in money and personal wealth; what they think is irrelevant is whether or not government actions require any kind of cost-benefit analysis.
Bernie Sanders' extraordinary success should have been seen for what it was - a commitment to socialist accounting, not Marxist ideology. As much as "conservatives" had no trouble with the waste and stupidity of our Southeast Asian war, the NGO vote has no trouble with the Black Lives Matter/Antifa violence. It is not happening in their direct lives, and it is minor violence in favor of what they believe in.
What bewilders me about the choice of Kamala Harris is that she is absolutely the worst possible choice for engaging the NGO vote.
Let us not
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
let us not be too obsequious for ralph. admittedly in the past he has b een ver y accurate with his bullish call. but in fact hs had been bearish during the 3ntire 50% rise in the market since midmarch. recently the market has gone up 6 days in arow from 3240 t 33 32 ..how in the world a person who is bearish and leveraged has withstood this rise , one doent know. in amy case its' been obvious for some time that Mr. vince is reaching out for reasons non preidictive and chart based to be bearish. we do not help him or us by complimenting him on oen day rite and 49% rise wrong. however, admittedly he has been one of the most accurate and useful people on this list. but we dont help him or us by heaping aencomia on hism anyone who has followed his o or worse yet has basked in the adulation we have to Mr. Vince is terribly hurt financially
Ralph V. writes:
lerm…..in truth, I was long in late march, I didn't start getting short until early May. in fact, I can go a LONG time like this too. anyone who is "following me" and gets hurt, deserves exactly that; I don't post things here for others to "follow" or tailgate. Rather I try to give the reason why, and open up avenues for discussion, but more importantly, that this is an endeavor in patience and nerve, not tools for finding an easier, softer, more comfortable way. Most players are looking for a means to use the markets so as to make money painlessly.. Anyone seeking comfort in the markets is looking in the wrong place. I make no apologies for drawdowns and I posit that since you are in the binary world either at equity highs or some degree of drawdown, you better learn to deal with drawdown and the concomitant discomfort which I try to exhibit real-time.
This has been a nickel-dime game so far this year in 2020.The entire year will come down to being on the right side of this for no more than several very critical days when it breaks. Patience. Nerve.
If you want, I'll follow Tyler and Jonathan and the others out the door and leave the list to its books and theories and colleges and kids and political yap and sports nonsense and masks and economic yibbityblibbity and recipes and whatever. I'm focusing on those several critical days just ahead up the road and I'm not being knocked off my game by anyone's opinion of me or what Im trying to do.
Tweets-May/6/2020
eveything up in air from Yest close
everything in transition with bonds and crude down this morning
nvesting.com/rates-bonds/us-30-yr-t-bond… sstrange and unprecedented move in bonds. perhaps finally denyig the cornucopia of mms
modern monetary theory says that fed buying bonds to financne government spending does not cause interest rates to increase. no f negatove feedbak mechanism
one doubts that it will go down 37 poinits from 230 to close liek yest
yes it " only" went down 25 points
Tweets-May/5/2020
everything beautiful the bonds are down almost a point crude up 20 % after 5 d ays in row up, the Nikkei is threatening to ascend to 20000 again and the stocks havent seen a down half hour in ages.. Alll we need is for Dr. Fauci to say we dont need ay more shut downs
he kids are doing their homework and foregoing video. the music is harmonious. and we see that the severity of the virus is vastly overstated in most areas because of the incentives to make the Prez look bad and the double reimbursement from medicare for calling it a corona.
aside fomr dr. fauci, we need a little thunder and some weainess so that the ublic doesnt make easy money
Out-of-Sync ‘Loners’ May Secretly Protect Orderly Swarms
Hernan Avella writes:
An interesting article with relevance for markets and recurrent political/social events. H
Out-of-Sync ‘Loners’ May Secretly Protect Orderly Swarms
Studies of collective behavior usually focus on how crowds of organisms coordinate their actions. But what if the individuals that don’t participate have just as much to tell us?
Ralph Vince writes:
It's interesting, although it falls more into the category of agent-based modelling. My fear with such an approach to market prognostications is that it ends up a dead-end much as the notion of neural nets being a panacea a few decads ago.
That my simply be my own failings with finding agent-based approaches to yield fruit, perhaps there are some out there who are?
“It is apparent that the pattern of dependence for consecutive changes on all trading days is qualitatively and quantitatively similar to that following world events.”
Re-reading ur paper Santiago.
It should be required reading in the study of deception- among other things - starting out apparently attempting to test (only) one hypothesis, but ending up testing and confirming at least 6 thers, which are still true!! (Momentum, reversion, endogeneity of mkt movements, recursiveness of prices, irrelevance of news; conditional movement vs randomness…sort of boggles the mind when I read it now. Wonder if Fama ever figured out how you hoisted him on his own petard.
Just amazing
Tweets-May/3/2020
the keys to the game are particularly difficult and diffuse thsi week. 1 the earnings estimates are more disperse than ever. 2. the companies that reported so far the big five are much more boyant than the remaining 45% f sp 500 compaies to report. 3if there is one fly in
fly in th eoitment. to me it is the fall in real estate prices. to an amazing extent almost all major decliens in stocks have been associated with declines inreal estate prices since the time of Henry george in the1880's. 4.. with a google of pics of Joe biden being
affectionate with others, it is likely that another victim besides tara Reade willl come forth. 5. Hillary is now 7% like to be the Democratic mnominee. 6. with all these cross currents I have looked for one market that will be the canary. I find it in the Japanese Yen
with every mmajor paharmaceutica company racing to find a treatment or vaccine for the viruts, it is likely that there will be other breakthroughs reported in the media. the last oen caused the biggest overnite rally ever stragnely the improvement over the pI tis amaizing
that the impvrovemtn over the poacebo was only 3 days. moregenerally many drug therapies provide only a few day or few motnh improvement over no treatment. consdiering the daamge to life from side efects of digestion and enegy and life style disruption the cost
bemefot pf many of them has to be negative as is the treament from Gilead.. it is amaterurish and tytpical of dR. fAUCI TO SAY THE IMROVEMENT IS STATISTICALYL SIGNIFICANT . AND THAT HE ALWAR=YS WILL err on the side of excessive caution. the pictures of him and the PRez
always remind us of Czar Alexander and Rasputin and I still claim he plays the same role as Rasputin in his and his families hoped for demise of the PRez family
others in his peer group are the 95% in the cdc and the swamp that contibuted to the Democrats last election. As i asked about the cattle trader what hpaped to the otheR $500/ THE OTHER 5%? the news abbout peter strk tryig to get Flynn to lie is a terrible exampel of
he battle that the Prez has faced with the samp. What would have hapend if during the impeachment trilas the prez had declared amore draconian ban on China.? more genrally what is the hidden cost of alll the productiv activieis that were lost and not made by the handouts
ecived an urgent method from Mr. vince. " the worst of the dri is still to come " he looks at volume and pain… I dont agree. vic
he statistics
Read: http://tl.gd/n_1sr7qv8
every gemtleman and woman knows that when you kiss someone on the face but not the lips the kiss conveys an invitiation for futher romance. presumably that was not unknown to the vp and also that he wasnt always unsuccessful
a prescient responose from a wsj SUBSCRIBER 1 hour ago I suspect that many of the 'reported' Corona Virus (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr7r1f
More Supply Chain Issues
Ralph Vince writes:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/22/business/beer-shortage-aluminum-can/index.html
Christopher Cooper writes:
I can confirm this from personal experience, but it has been building since before the Covid issues.
At my beverage co-packing facility we have been cut off by our can maker (Crown). We have really had to scramble to get out hands on cans for ourselves and our customers. We were able to find some in Canada. We’re probably OK until mid-2021, but will have to find a reliable source before then.
This is driven mostly by the advantages of cans over glass for many beverages. We shut down our glass bottling line in favor of making more room for canning. It is simply the preference of the brands that come to us, most of whom are startups.
Ralph Vince writes:
I wonder how deep this goes though? is it affecting cans of aerosol spray as well, or other industrial componentry?
Christopher Cooper writes:
Not to my knowledge, Ralph. This is due to growing demand for aluminum beverage cans combined with constrained capacity due to the cost of building new plants. The beverage can plants don’t make anything besides beverage cans, and they are running at full capacity.
No doubt there are supply chain disruptions due to the current economy, I just don’t think this is your best example.
News from NYC
Susan Niederhoffer writes:
from a facebook friend recovering from cancer and now in NYC:
Out and about. My walk home from Lymphedema Treatment (excellent therapist by the by) before jumping into a taxi with a 70 year old driver from Cairo (who after 31 years is returning to Egypt because of the current situation here).
I must say on my leisurely walk home I began to have very bad feelings about the city. With all the many many businesses and restaurants who have not re-opened and who knows if they ever will again, the front of their stores and the city sidewalks are embarrassingly dirty. Why doesn't DeBlasio employ people to clean/sanitize the streets! He'd be accomplishing several things: employ people, keep us safe & pick up spirits. I feel violence in the air. So many people have been out of work too long, are now being evicted and are/will become desperate.
I'm very afraid for my city. It doesn't look good. On a personal note, I'm leaving just in time. This is not the place to be in the coming future.
Hernan Avella writes:
This is good, the old and feeble should leave, rents and housing come down, a new crop of rascals occupy and the wheels of commerce keep turning
Ralph Vince writes:
Who who in their right mind is going to return to that City? clearly the first thing that needs to be cleaned up there is leadership.
in the meantime the wheels of commerce can continue in New York City… The way it stands Hernan is right…the wheels of commerce in midtown for check cashing joints, pawn shops, convenience stores, liquor stores. How about Lotto? That sets you up is our world finance hub doesn't it? How about some girly joints in midtown when that be infinitely better than the boarded-up barbed wire dump that it is now? 42nd Street would be a good place for used car lot tear down what they're putting up at 42nd and Vanderbilt I've long thought a used car lot belongs on 42nd Street. I'm going to barbecue joint on 5th avenue?
And if New York needs a model I'll go take some pictures of Cleveland 40 years after Dennis kucinich, it would be like peering into the future. We can turn the Bloomberg complex into a Goodwill supercenter!
hgiffford writes:
Those Detroit are said to be fearful because the first generation of Americans who don't care about owning a car, and who would just as soon not own a car, are sitting in cafes typing on their laptops all of the US now.
However, there is one city in the US where it is easy to live without a car
Ralph Vince writes:
What happened in NYC is egregious in an "off the meter" sense; I don;t recall ever, in the history of the City, such an event transpiring, or implicitly invited by leadership there.
This is not a "big, scary prediction." There are other factors in play now, bigger than the abdication of protection of the city, that conspire to make the uphill grind for NYC greater than before. There is a giant human migration out of many locales, NYC being one of them, where the confluence of a number of factors, e.g., greater remote work, etc.,further promote individuals and corporate citizens out of the City in search of greener pastures in smaller metro areas. The scale of this is hard to measure this early, it seems something whose time has come but needed the events of recent months, and it doesn't play in favor of the City recovering any time soon. As I said,I for one will not return until some semblance of sanity in leadership returns, and proves itself out. Many others I correspond with feel similarly. Nothing changes while nothing changes.
I am not a charlatan of sorts, as you seem to imply. I do my homework - more than anyone else I know. I stand by what I "predict," and I put my own money on it.
Adam Friedman replies:
I don't think you're a charlatan at all. I know you've been successful putting your money where your work/mouth is over the years. That deserves respect.
It just appears over the last few months each missive from you has a more exclamatory and outlandish prediction than the last– whether it be about markets or the now eternal damnation of NYC. It appears to be self-inflicted confirmation bias that runs deep.
Nothing from this side is a comment about how hard you work, the quality of your work, or your track record.
Comments
none on July 23, 2020 10:10 pm
In the 1950’s to 1960’s Detroit was the richest city in the ‘world.’
China Is Dismantling the Empire of a Vanished Tycoon - The New York Times
Leo Jia writes:
If you are in the right factions of the New Class, it's time to celebrate as you can expect to get a piece of the pie soon.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/business/china-xiao-jianhua.html
Kklaw writes:
NFW
That happened in 2017. He was snatched from Four Seasons Hotel in Hong Kong. All of his bodyguards could not save him from armed CCP agents. The entire CCP is just like a giant mafia. His way to riches is of course through a lot of illegal deals via a whole bunch of connections within CCP. Rumor was that he shorted the Chinese market during 2015 and that pissed Xi off. Therefore Xi wanted to take him down and nationalize his financial empire. There have been a number of Chinese billionaires who either died mysteriously or were jailed. The morale of this story is the lieutenants of the mafia can get rich and stay "free" until the head of the mafia feels the person is a threat. If Xi feels any of those billionaires is a threat to his empire, the person could be be whacked (i.e., died accidentally) or jailed. And the person's fortune would be the country's (should i say Xi's or his cronies') possessions.
Hows the
Haha. I've been Foil Surfing on a foil board where you fly above the water at high speeds. Its fun but the learning curve was very steep and it is the hardest thing I've ever done (except trading). The wipeouts are brutal because you are high above the wave, which is also head high and moving about 20mph. Kind of like jumping off the high diving board. But since a foiler can ride a part of the wave no one else can ride, even though many people are out in the water surfing their regular old fashioned surfboards, I can have as many waves as I want. It rides the rounded hump of the wave where it doesn't even break riding the energy of the wave which traveled 5,000 miles away from New Zealand.
It goes to show that there is always a niche somewhere that is uncrowded just like in the markets.
Especially at the gravitational 3250. I expect a crowd to gather there in the next few days.
China-USA inflection point
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
I heard an interview on NPR by a writer whose name I did not catch who agrees with Hernan's premise that China has surpassed the US. He attributes to 2 really useless expensive US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and failure to spend those trillions on infrastructure and education in the US. China had no wars and spent extensively on infrastructure . You can see immediately on landing in Beijing the beautiful, huge airport. Compare that with the dump that is JFK Airport in NYC. When I visited China ten years ago, I saw ribbons of highway stretching out into the distance way out in the hinterlands.
larry writes:
Yea but NPR is anti usa most always
Kim Zussman writes:
Zubin is, as always, a devoted son of Mao
Comments
Forrest Horse on July 23, 2020 5:37 pm
Please provide proof that NPR is almost always anti-USA. And I presume that Fox News is your authoritative source.
Slow the Spread of COVID-19 by Turning Down the Music
Below is something I wrote about an idea I have about slowing the spread of COVID-19. It might be interesting to list members in terms of statistics, epidemiology, and seeing patterns. List members who wish to avoid the virus and any other airborne pathogens might also find the information helpful.
I make no statements about any government action.
Slow the spread of COVID-19 by Turning Down the Music
Early in the COVID-19 epidemic the number of people infected was a low enough proportion of the overall population that it was easy to spot the gatherings where multiple new infections occurred. These large COVID-19 infection clusters, also sometimes called “superspreading events,” have characteristics that can yield clues to the question of what, if any, was the dominant transmission mode: infected surfaces, airborne respiratory droplets, or other? Many transmissions have been shown to be from carriers who are asymptomatic,(1,2) and therefore presumably not producing aerosolized droplets by coughing or sneezing. So, how do carriers spread the virus without coughing or sneezing?
Superspreading events in the early part of the epidemic included weddings, funerals, a choir practice, religious gatherings, and sporting events, such as Liverpool’s March 11 football match against Atlético Madrid. At a choir practice in Skagit County, Washington State, at least 45 out of 56 participants became infected, despite the organizers making hand sanitizer available, and participants practicing social distancing.(3)
What many of these settings have in common is loud music. This cacophonous din gives participants a choice between not speaking to other people at all, or leaning in close to other people and shouting at them, which greatly increases the number of particles leaving the mouth of the person speaking. Researchers studying aerosol emission during human speech have found, “the rate of particle emission during normal human speech is positively correlated with the loudness (amplitude) of vocalization, ranging from approximately 1 to 50 particles per second (0.06 to 3 particles per cm3) for low to high amplitudes, regardless of the language spoken (English, Spanish, Mandarin, or Arabic).”(4) In other words, speaking loudly can increase the number of particles emitted from the mouth by a factor of 50. Put bluntly, loud music encourages people to spit viral particles in each others’ faces.
Loud music is often played at weddings and religious gatherings. Announcements at sporting events are often deafening, as is the music in the bars where many spectators gather after the game. A funeral in Albany, Georgia, where the virus spread in late February, was described in The New York Times as an event where participants “belted out hymns.”(5) Many restaurants of all types also play loud music, which might also contribute to the spread. In South Korea an instructor spread the virus to students in her fitness dance class - a type of class where instructors often shout, but didn’t spread it to students in yoga and Pilates classes – types of classes where instructors typically do not shout.(6)
Notably absent from the literature are reports of the virus spreading in airplanes, trains, or buses, despite lots of people still using these modes of transportation early in the epidemic. These are settings where a large number of people sit very close to one other for extended periods of time—so many people think they are pots of contagion. Yet music is usually not played on airplanes, trains, and buses, thus talking tends to be done at a low volume, and can be done from a reasonable distance. There have been several outbreaks of COVID-19 on cruise ships, but unlike airplanes, buses, and trains, cruise ships tend to play loud music in some of the places where people congregate, including dance parties, bars, restaurants, and exercise classes.
It’s true that nursing homes have been reported as superspreading locations, despite them not typically playing loud music. However, many elderly people are hard of hearing, which encourages people to both speak louder and put their faces closer together to be heard. Also, when a television is played in a nursing home the volume tends to be loud, which insures that anyone trying to talk over the television will lean in close and yell, even when speaking to someone with clear hearing.
People shouting over the noise generated by machinery may help explain the superspreading in meat packing plants.
If restaurants and bars and gyms reopen without music they would probably prevent many cases. It is easy to choose a quiet restaurant over a noisy one, and customers avoiding locations that play loud music will be doing their part to reduce transmission of COVID-19, including to themselves. Avoiding loud music is free, and may help stop the spread of any current or future pathogens that are transmissible via aerosol particles.
1 Asymptomatic Transmission, the Achilles’ Heel of Current Strategies to Control Covid-19 Monica Gandhi, M.D., M.P.H., Deborah S. Yokoe, M.D., M.P.H., and Diane V. Havlir, M.D. April 24, 2020 The New England Journal of Medicine https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2009758
2 Furukawa NW, Brooks JT, Sobel J. Evidence supporting transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 while presymptomatic or asymptomatic. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jul [18 May, 2020]. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.201595
3 Post Register, Washington state choir suffers devastating losses to COVID-19 March 11, 2020 By CRAIG PARRISH, BRANDON STONE and RICHARD WALKER Skagit Publishing https://www.postregister.com/coronavirus/washington-state-choir-suffers-devastating-losses-to-covid-19/article_688594b9-3c5f-5697-a4c7-b1fa9c70a9a9.html
4 Asadi, S., Wexler, A.S., Cappa, C.D. et al. Aerosol emission and superemission during human speech increase with voice loudness. Sci Rep 9, 2348 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-38808-z
5 Days After a Funeral in a Georgia Town, Coronavirus ‘Hit Like a Bomb’ New York Times, Ellen Barry, March 30, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-funeral-albany-georgia.html
6 Jang S, Han SH, Rhee J-Y. Coronavirus disease cluster associated with fitness dance classes, South Korea. Emerg Infect Dis. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-0633_article
November
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
I rode a bike through Tibet and Western Szechwuan when China was taking it over. I saw convoys of trucks 20 miles long that stretched for hours pouring troops into the region. They just replaced the Tibetians. There are over 1.4 billion people in China! Just the sheer numbers mean a lot.
How many on the list have been to China? It was much different than what I had heard or imagined.
larry writes:
I was first there in 1980—what a different china then than now. Been there 10 time or so and each time is different
Hello
Solid breakout above prior post crash highs. Bit low vol, and up bonds. 3250 in play.
Hate to mention the big triangle.
Georgia numbers
Tom Ford writes:
Should we be sanctioning Georgia?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-17/georgia-massaged-virus-data-to-reopen-then-voided-mask-orders?srnd=premium
Actually my comment was not meant to debate on covid numbers. Everyone will have different opinions on whether the virus is really re-surging. It depends on how the virus affected you (financially, personally, and politically). I found it interesting how we are accusing China of fake numbers (rightly so, i don't believe it either) when we may potentially also be doing the same thing. It's funny lately how some of the actions taken by our nation looked exactly like the things we've condemned China for. But hey, do as I say, not as I do….right?
Ralph, sources wise, we can debate till the next millennia what constitutes credible sources. Credibility most commonly depends on whether something sounds confirming for a reader (confirmation bias). If a news piece provides information that is inline with a reader's political affiliation and/or personal philosophies, it is more than likely the reader will find that news credible. I like to find things to read that don't agree with the general public's views because it allows for a more holistic understanding of the parties involved and their agendas. Kinda like stepping in the shoes of someone else. Its not going to fit, literally and culturally. Thats why I encourage people to go read news published by the CCP and contrast it with our own nations news. That way you can really understand what everyone's action may actually entail. The problem we have right now with China is a difference in culture, a way of life. Until we really dive deep and understand each other culturally can we ultimately find a common ground.
A Fearful Asymmetry
Hernan Avella writes:
A Fearful Asymmetry: Covid-19 and America’s Information Deficit with China
David Moser
July 11, 2020
Volume 18 | Issue 14 | Number 5
Article ID 5422
Abstract: There is a longstanding and fundamental asymmetry in level of mutual understanding between the US and China. Chinese citizens are avid consumers of American media and cultural products, whereas most Americans are woefully unfamiliar with even the basics of Chinese history and culture. This asymmetry has resulted in a situation where the US is in danger of misinterpreting or misunderstanding Chinese motivations in bilateral relations, particularly in times of crisis. This paper recounts how the Covid-19 epidemic of 2020 exacerbated existing tensions between the US and China, and how these escalations in state-to-state conflict were ilarge part due to America’s information deficit with the PRC.
Link:
https://apjjf.org/2020/14/Moser.html?fbclid=IwAR2ZrN3-aHQojMrqtUSjHKlIonwdO8rsTlUSympmQrxMtLipatqC2WTm1OE
Jeffery Rollert writes:
The article reminded me of old Cold War articles. Clear local perspective, and cold lanuguage discussing hot topics. I found the premise to be thoughtful and well explained, but it seemed clouded by reaching to far from it.
K. K. Law writes:
The author completely missed a very major point and that is likely the result of him also only having very superficial understanding of China and CCP. The author fails to account for the key role of CCP's propaganda machine which controls what the Chinese can read and see and also controls what kind of information and mid-information is allowed to be sent to the West. The CCP has perfected its machine to control the minds and behaviors of Chinese inside the country since 1945.
Stefan Jovanovich replies:
1948 would be a better date. Until the KMT outlawed ownership of gold and imposed price controls - which ruined all remaining exchange value for the currency, the Maoist insurgency had no guarantee of winning. As usual, the "conservatives" in American politics picked the wrong villain. The communists in the State Department had little effect on the outcome; the sensible bipartisan financial experts are the people who "lost" China.
Tweets-May/3/2020
the keys to the game are particularly difficult and diffuse thsi week. 1 the earnings estimates are more disperse than ever. 2. the companies that reported so far the big five are much more boyant than the remaining 45% f sp 500 compaies to report. 3if there is one fly in
Momentum is the Empress of Markets
Recently the intraday momentum has been good with quite large moves, if you could be there to catch them. Even the last few days with the odd tight ranges had nice regular range bound swings making for good day trading. The large daily ranges are good. If one is able to hang on for a few days and trail a stop or some such technique some nice moves could be captured. Back in the turn of the century during the high vol at the century highs with high valuations on stocks, hundreds of points were crossed. If you could capture 60 percent of a swing you did well. I think the same holds true now with the large moves. When I say things like this I always keep in the back of my mind that the cycle is probably about over since its become so obvious that if I can see it, so can everyone else.
Momentum is the Empress of Markets
A New High comes. So? Buying a new high will make money, all by itself? If this were true then after a new high another one will naturally come, always and then markets will be in a spiral going to infinity.
Similarly, if a New Low of N days is in itself a recipe for making money, an unending series of newer lows will take that market down to zero.
Neither zero, nor infinity have come. They wont come, we all know.
So while Prime may be the King of Markets or say the Emperor of the Markets. It is the momentum or rate of change of prices that is the Empress of the markets.
An emperor may sortee howsoever further into its adventures he must return back to his empress. Unless the empress is chugging along the emperor cannot keep foraying further. Any studies of price behaviour that try to emancipate mean reversion or any other haloed ideas of prices alone are incomplete. A study of how far can the Emperor and Empress digress from each other may have a few meals for a lifetime.
How to define such a problem to make it convenient for quantification?
Auctioneer school can teach couple of market lessons
https://www.texasmonthly.com/the-culture/auctioneer-school-texas/?src=longreads&mc_cid=91062c3801&mc_eid=ebdbfdf520
Who Will Win: Martial Artist or Special Forces?
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
The martial artist who trains to kill and maim full time ought to beat special forces guy who has to diversify his training with guns, navigation, comm, explosives etc. To generalize, the one who trains most to maim, disable and kill should win. A good reference is Musashi Miyamoto's Ringo No Sho, The Book of Five Rings. Fighting is not always about head to head combat, but deception, surprise, unfair tactics, doing the unexpected.
Hernan Avella replies:
A few notes on fighting:
- Unconstrained fighting (using objects, eye gouging, groin shots, finger manipulation) is too chaotic, and for obvious reasons has never been studied systematically. In an event of this nature, size, endurance and relevant experience with the setting are the most important variables.
2. In the hypothetical case where a person is limited to learn only one "martial art". It's been more than proven that said martial art should be Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. For a high level excellent discussion on BJJ as a system, check the JRE podcast with the brilliant coach John Danaher.
-
The sport of fighting (MMA) is relatively new, it's as close as it can be to a real fight, a few constraints added to avoid catastrophic injuries and deaths, (and some nonsensical rules thrown in there to cater to the bureaucrats of the fighting commissions). In it's short history you have seen the quick evolution of the ruleset and the techniques. Just like in markets, every little rule or artificial limit, causes an inefficiency to be exploited.
-
To be proficient at fighting you need to be able to understand all the intricacies of a fight in different planes: Standing, on the ground, clinching. Each of these 3 planes have different details depending on the range of proximity to your opponent. Additionally, fighting is not carried out in discrete steps along the different plains, so you have to develop a sophisticated game for the "transitions". The number of scenarios quickly explode and a fighter needs to train so much to make a lot of this second nature. It really makes all the other athletic endeavors look easy.
-
Like in markets, the ever changing cycles are very important. The key variable here is the different superior skills that are disseminated non uniformly. The video tape as a research tool has been instrumental to accelerate adaptation. Since the early 90's, the sport has seen several phases, each one builds on the previous one:
a.) Jiu-Jitsu is king.
b.) Wrestling and ground and pound and weight-cutting
c.) The rise of the well rounded fighter
d.) Sophistication of the striking game
6. A few things have stood the test of time despite the quick evolution of the sport:
a.) Leg kicks, super debilitating they impede mobility and damage accumulates quickly.
b.) Defensive Jiu-Jitsu (avoid getting blood flow to the brain from being stopped or your limbs twisted), it's easier to defend than to attack.
c.) Takedowns and clinch game: He who can control the plain in which the fight takes place has an advantage
d.) Genetic differences and/or performance enhancing drugs are always key.
Finally, practical advice. If you are about to enter a physical confrontation and your future opponent has cauliflower ears. Don't walk, run!, your life is in danger
larry replies:
Prison fighting is a separate art unlike any other as it must end instantly before guards come—perhaps the deadliest of all
Comments
Nigel Davies on July 16, 2020 4:20 pm
Rory Miller’s books are worth reading as they offer the unique perspective of a karateka who faced potential violence on a daily basis as a prison guard. He concluded that old style karate training was more useful than many of the contemporary aspects.
It’s also worth noting that martial arts are practiced for many reasons outside combat training, for example tai chi is used mainly for health in older people so this aspect has been emphasized. More energetic martial arts are used for aerobic exercise, again without a particular emphasis on combat training.
Arthur Barbato on July 17, 2020 8:49 am
Thank you for this excellent discussion of hand to hand combat.
In Shubumi the main character, Nicholai Hel, points out that tactics in CQC are largely to be determined by the age of the combatants. Trevanian,the author, whose real name was a closely guarded secret mosst of his life, served in the US Navy and according to reliable sources was employed by the XXX agency. His work is pure and true.
Prison fighting is best conducted in the yard within ear shot and sight of yard guards so the fight can be interrupted asap. Villains will try to take advantage of you and fighting in the yard is the only way to insure you will be left alone. You can’t keep your head down and hope for the best. You must be fierce and vocal if confronted and a fight can not be avoided.
A kick boxing guy knocking a Taiji master in 4 seconds
Leo Jia writes:
https://youtu.be/WSDbTl9pB2o
Jayson Pifer replies:
There has been a series of those videos coming out, pre-covid anyway. I believe propelled by the eruption of MMA in China and it's suppression there by the traditional martial arts.
Turns out the winner of these bouts are consistently the ones who train for the ring against actual opponents rather than their rank achieved in their Art.
I'd suggest the same answer applies to the Special Forces versus Martial Artist question. The answer wouldn't be their employed technique, but the effectiveness of their training and it's applicability to the rules, if any, of the fighting arena.
What happened to the bears
Hernan Avella writes:
That cluttered this list for weeks with nonsense charts and mumbo, were they banned?, are they solvent?
Interestingly enough, long term bonds are 11 big points higher than they were last time Spu was up here in early June and Jeffersonian stocks 5% lower. July VX arabesque-ing higher.
NQ has done it's job, perhaps value stocks can take the baton for the next 200 pts.
Ralph Vince writes:
Yes,and we have not had so much as two consecutive down days (Spx) within this period.
Oddly, the 6 week coefficient of variance (6 week std dev/6 week ma) has not gone to below
.01, which usually means a large (usually down) move is imminent, despite the tightness of the past 22 days. In other words, it feels as though we've been in a right range for the past 4 1/2 weeks but there's been a lot of movement within this range.
Invisible hand MKII
I just had a nice chat with a German recruiter/headhunter.
I ask her about the current German labor market and how this (convid-
)summer compares to last year's summer ? I asked because I don't see
much difference on typical headhunter sites - lots of offers and job
openings.
She commented, that the labor mkt is quite different now. Many employees
work part-time and/or from home. Many are also satisfied with lower
wages ( as a result of part-time work) in exchange for more free time.
Many plan to keep working part-time.
I expect productivity or crater here. This is on top of a dried up
workforce even before the virus. Now many are also lazy. Such a move to
part-time does not happen gradually, but seems to occur herd-like.
Who Will Win: Martial Artist or Special Forces? From James Hydrick
A question that should be asked more often in martial arts circles and elite military posts is: If a skilled martial artist fights a Special Forces or Navy Seal trained in hand-to-hand combat who will win? Having trained on both sides I believe I can answer. The elite military receive special training in hand-to-hand combat from experts pulled in from civilian circles onto the army bases specifically to train them in close hand combat. Therefore, It would seem the teacher would win the fight over the student every time. However, this is balanced because the Special Forces and Navy Seals are the very best drawn from a huge pool of all-sports champions who have been chosen for the elite because the army knows to polish the hardest rocks. Therefore, in general, the elite are better natural all-around athletes than expert martial artists. They are bigger, faster, stronger, and with more endurance. Hence, it becomes a pivot of the student Bluto vs the teacher Popeye and I must say it’s a tossup depending on which way the spinach is tossed. But don’t take that as the final answer. I would give the edge in hand-in-hand battle to the Special Forces because of what he has been taught by the best martial artists in the land, his military instructors have told him fo forget everything the expert just taught him except the moves that work in four seconds or less, because you will want to put down or kill your opponent or multiple enemies in that amount of time. That is also why I ended up teaching the Special Forces, Seals, mercenaries, and even a king’s elite in Egypt because all I know how to do is put a man down and out in three seconds or less, and have done it over a hundred times in life-or-death combat while taking some hard knocks and wounds.
Stocks up, bonds high
"When stocks are doing well but investors remain skeptical about how long they will do well, stock and bond prices can rise together. This is because investors continue to put money in stocks but also put money into bonds just in case the stock market drops. This spreads the demand among stocks and bonds, and that demand causes prices to go up for each type"
Herman mentioned bonds are higher than last time stock were up here (3150 level). What does that mean? Lower chances of continued stock rise?
Stocks up, bond down only a little?
Stocks down, bonds up a lot?
Variations on Chairs stock bond calendar.
Higher bonds would be bullish as chair tweets.
How
Henry Gifford writes:
My uncle was a New York City police officer for a few weeks in the 1960s. Tall, strong, handsome, Irish (when that helped a lot), Navy veteran. He and some other cops answered a call for a burglary at a jewelry store. The other cops started stuffing their pockets, but my uncle took nothing. The others urged him to just take something. He didn’t. They explained “the owner will just do the same before the insurance company gets here.” He took nothing. He was off the force within the week. Until an honest cop can be trusted, there is no room for an honest cop.
In the 1980s I lived and owned apartment houses in a part of Manhattan where drugs were sold openly on the street, by people yelling at the top of their lungs about the quality of their heroin and cocaine. The cops came for raids with the sirens on from three blocks away, going the wrong way on a one-way street (slowed them down a lot). I saw the cops rob drug dealers in broad daylight, and was then asked to be a witness because “if I show up emptyhanded they will kill me – please be my witness.” Who was right and wrong in this situation?
Years later, in the 2000s I think, the newspapers reported that in “the dirty thirty” – the 30th precinct in Harlem - an undercover cop from another part of the city parked himself in an abandoned building with no apparent reason for being there, just sitting there doing nothing, and some local detectives figured he must be dealing drugs, so they came into the building and beat him up and took his money and his gun, and never arrested him, and never turned in the gun or the money. I think over 10 cops were caught in the sting, and the worst any of them got was 30 days in jail. Is it that different in another part of the city? What did the light sentences teach?
Today I was driving back from The Catskill Mountains – formerly and fondly known as “The Jewish Alps” to an older generation, resort area two hours drive North of NYC that has never recovered economically from the invention of the jet plane, and got off the highway and pulled into a gas station on the main street of a not-prosperous small city to fill up. I quickly realized I was the only person not there to buy or sell illegal drugs, and got out of there. If I could tell in seconds, how long have the local cops known about this, and why don’t they do something about it? A car parked there, or a few cameras would make a huge difference to the people living around there and to the children of the participants, but the semi-open drug market thrives with no apparent hindrance from anyone.
I don’t have a solution, but I have three ideas for things that might help just a little:
1 – double the police salaries, and if that doesn’t produce a competition for the job based on quality, increase the salaries again.
2 – don’t hire anyone for the job until they are 30 years old with a clean police record. This will weed out some career criminals, while enhancing the real-world life experience of those on the job.
3 – require that police officers live within X miles of where they work, preferably in the same city or county.
Not solutions, but they will help, I think.
Christopher Cooper writes:
NFW
“Throw more money at it” seems to be the solution for everything these days.
I do think that Scott has the right ideas, but the chances of them happening are nil.
In my family there are 4 male siblings. Two are in law enforcement, and 2 are ex-felons. We’re not a close family!
I don’t think this problem gets solved until you can trust that police, and the rest of law enforcement, will do their jobs and prosecute each other instead of protecting the brotherhood in blue. I wouldn’t trust my brothers to do that.
Russell Sears writes:
Until we get prosecutors and cops incentives to reform criminal not just prosecute them then there will not be too much of a solution.
https://www.ted.com/talks/adam_foss_a_prosecutor_s_vision_for_a_better_justice_system
Hand drawn History of US Finance 1861-1935
Good stuff: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/75years/presentation.php
3150
was a mean reversion pivot since July 3.
Safety, from Duncan Coker
So much in the world of late about safety, feeling safe, makes things more safe. Safety is not a binary state and is one of degree. No one is ever completely safe or conversely completely unsafe either. And should safety even be a desired goal? Life is not a safe activity. In fact, in the end it is quite deadly. No one got very far being safe in trading. In fact, safety in a high turnover activity like trading probably leads to bankruptcy with repeated trading costs and de-risking at the wrong times for the sake of safety. The whole industry of asset management is built around the concept of Safety - protecting asset, managing risk, having a third party advise on what is safe and most importantly making investors feel safe. Whether they actually are or are not safe in another matter.
How
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
are you doing and how is millie doing…'2 what is your reaction to all the police violence lately .d o you feel it shoudl be defunded? 3 artie said that during his tenure it wa s aomost mpossible to arrest a b lack personage because eveyone was loookign at you a skew.
William McCarthy replies:
Hello Victor,
How are you doing? Millie and I are hanging in there. Plenty of doctor visits for the both of us. But all is well considering.
The only thing different about the police violence today compared to the past is media technology. Cell phone video cameras and the internet. These recorded criminal acts by police unfortunately have always occurred by some rogue police officers that were denied. There is no justification for what was witnessed in the Minneapolis incident. I feel for the 2 rookie officers that were present who were also charged. There lives were ruined before their law enforcement careers even got started.
It seems that physically resisting arrest has become an expected allowable standard practice on the part of the public. Resisting even a unlawful arrest is against the law (at least in the New York State Penal Law). The citizen's recourse is to submit to the arrest and make their claim of false arrest in court.
The police have little influence if they are not supported by the general public. And without the public's support they are personally discouraged from self-initiating any enforcement activity. No one can know in advance the outcome of an encounter. The public has been falsely educated by all of the popular TV shows that depict the law enforcement main character's swift and facile physical actions. In real life it can get ugly fast even when the actions of the police are lawful. Few ordinary officers are prepared to make it look easy. That requires constant physical training and technique. On television the "good guy" always wins. That is not the case in real life.
Can society survive without the acceptance of the rule of law by the public and its enforcement by the police? There would be little to video if the public did not physically resist arrest!
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
do yoou agree with me that the strength oof the unons makes it almost impssiblet ofire ann officer, and no knock lawas and qualified immunity and oikuce nilitary equipment, and juries favoritism to olice needs reform. very glad to hear of your consilience, we are abotu the same as y ou and Millie. moved out of ny. no good reason to stay for us without broadway and restaurants, just reread the Gofrather . wata is realistic?.
Victor Niederhoffer adds:
billl mccarthy was a friend and student of my father andn chie fo the bomb and couter intelligence dept, and made more arrewts than anyone with his patented method. loved to biox. his book is the best crime book ever
Ken Drees writes:
The Godfather types will move into cities that let their police forces shutter and then there will be the peace
Coming back from behind
Alex Castaldo writes:
Heres the skinny. from math puzzles volume 1, by presh talwalkar. doc here. from nature walk. originally to stretch aubrey's mind . odds of a comebak victory
Consider 2 teams a and b that are completely evenly matched. given that a team is behind in score at half time, what is the prob that a team will overcome the deficit and win the game. assume the first halve and the second half are taken to be independent events. Presh solves it as follows logically:
Since the two teams are evenly matched, it is equally likely that the team will score enuf points to overcome the deficit or that it will not score enuf points. fo example the event of falling behind 6 pts in a half game happens with the same prob as gaining 6 pts in a half game. He concludes prob is 0.25
Now we posted the empirical resutls from basektaball games and many others have given the empiriclal results for football games … and i gave some results for the markets.. this seems to be of interest to everyone , had the most views of any posts, and it was good for 7 or 8 points today.. lets have your discussion and solution of this problem. presh says the answer is 0.25 both empirically (NFL in 1995) and logically.
Jared Albert writes:
In a game with two teams where in the first round, the team 1 advantage varies from flat to all the points available in the second round, the probability of team 0 coming from behind to win are in array with 20 available points in the second round:
[0.49, 0.306, 0.22, 0.129, 0.09, 0.03, 0.018, 0.011, 0.004, 0.002, 0.002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]
For example, if the teams are even going into the second round with 20 available points, .490 chance that team0 wins; with a one point advantage to team1 at the start of round2, team0 wins .306 of the time;
2 points to team1, team0 wins .220 of the time etc
Here's the montecarlo:
import numpy as np
np.random.seed(10)
out_list = []
out_list = []
count = 1000
win = 1
lose = 0
team0_start = 0
team1_start = 0
size=20
def runs():
z = np.sum(np.random.choice([win, lose], size=size, replace=True, p=None))
return z
def outcome(team1_start, count = count, team0_start=team0_start):
l= []
for _ in range(count):
team0_end = runs() + team0_start
team1_end = runs() + team1_start
came_from_behind = team0_end > team1_end
l.append(came_from_behind)
#print(f'l: {l}')
outcome = sum(i > 0 for i in l)
return(outcome)
for i in range(size):
out_list.append(outcome(team1_start=i)/count)
print(f'outlist: {out_list}')
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
up your alley i think. we have done something similar for market with real empirical results. the unconditional prob is much less than20%
Stephen Stigler writes:
I am sure you know but I repeat anyway:
1) the simple calculations ignore correlation between teams.
2) they also ignore information on the distribution of changes
3) Calculations using the distribution of changes are not hard.
4) But the information about the probability of extreme events is not well determined so they can be inaccurate
5) In any case markets unlike sports are not zero sum games.
And Here I Thought Prediction Markets Were a Modern Invention, shared by Alston Mabry
HISTORICAL POLITICAL FUTURES MARKETS: AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Paul W. Rhode, Koleman Strumpf
ABSTRACT Political future markets, in which investors bet on election outcomes, are often thought a recent invention. Such markets in fact have a long history in many Western countries. This paper traces the operation of political futures markets back to 16th Century Italy, 18th Century Britain, and 19th Century United States. In the United States, election betting was a common part of political campaigns in the antebellum period, but became increasingly concentrated in the organized futures markets in New York City over the postbellum period.
Time to talk barbecue
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
I've been eating plant based for 8 months. I feel great, lost all body fat, breath better, sleep better.
BBQ veges are very good with oil pepper, garlic baste. Eggplant, onion, asparagus, squash, mushrooms,zucchini are great. BBQ browning gives them a great taste. I love to put them in a bun salthered with lots of dill based vege mayo, tomatoes, pickle, lettuce. Its easy to broil them if you don't want to start up the barbie. We just harvested the first round of sweet corn and it was fun and delicious. The corn can go on the barbie in their husk to a light burn outside. We just planted the second round of corn which will be ready in 60 days
Christopher Cooper adds:
Interesting. I’ve had pretty much the same results, over the same timeframe, from a combination of working out more and time-restricted feeding. No other change in diet, which is carnivorous but moderately low-carb.
I’m down to the weight I graduated from high school with, 50 years ago. In my case, it’s the fat loss and exercise that is responsible for the benefits, not the diet.
The Learned Ignoramus, from Victor Niederhoffer
The learned ignoramus: "Anthony Fauci, the "Learned Ignoramus"
Who else should be put on this list in contrast to useful idiots. The Upside Down Man is on both.
Comments
Forrest Horse on July 13, 2020 6:10 pm
Let’s put you on the list, Vic for being nothing like you used to be. For becoming a hateful, non-counting, my-view-must-be-right old codger.
Thank you.
Recent Transcontinental Travel, from Dr. Zacek
Last weekend I have completed a transcontinental travel going from Las Vegas > Los Angeles > Amsterdam > Prague.
Prior departure Delta & KLM did bombard me with docs to fill out for the trip and plethora of entry and in-flight requirements.
Vegas: almost empty airport, 99% people in masks, at about 10% of normal capacity in terms of people traffic, 1 newspaper shop open, everything else closed. West Jet flight – small Embraer plane with about 30% seats taken, comfy free mid seat arrangement, 2 people in 1st class, refreshments placed on your seat in a Ziplock bag, no service throughout the flight. Masks required on the plane during the whole flight.
Los Angeles: no transit working, had to exit the domestic terminal and walk the curb to the international terminal, 14 flights on the monitor for the whole day, destinations as such as Mexico, China, Paris & Amsterdam. Terminal completely closed except 2 newspaper shops, departure terminal complete ghost town, passengers only for my and another China flight, both relatively small planes Boeing 777-300. Passengers ranging from full-on hazmat suits, masks & shields for ICU units, to scarf over the face and only when specifically requested by the personnel. No tourists-type travelers whatsoever. Flight about 35% full. Refreshments in Ziplock bags on the seat, except 1 hot meal (hot oats with marmalade – seriously, I kid you not) mid-flight, no in-flight service as well. Masks required on the plane during the whole flight. Big fuss about several forms to fill out before departure which will be requested upon arrival in Amsterdam. People using 1! pen provided by the gate attendant.
Amsterdam: no one asking for the tons of paperwork we were forced to fill out, no temperature check at all, no in-person questions inquiring where you landed from. About 80% of the airport in masks, terminal capacity at about 25%, all shops open including high end jewelry and designers.
Prague: airport at about 20% capacity, baggage delivery at record breaking 10 minutes from plane docking at the gate. First time border control staff asking where I did land from, even though I did land in Schengen terminal, meaning there is no border control in normal circumstances. 99% of people in masks inside buildings, outside no masks.
Every single flight except Prague had bus transfer to plane location, no direct gate access – perfect petri dish environment to get the virus.
Czech legislation allows to have the test up-to 72 hour after arrival as long as you self-quarantined home till the test results. Alternatively you can arrive with test results done max 4 days before departure. In Arizona the current test result delivery is up-to 10 business days with up-to 5 days wait time for the test exam as such. In Prague I did have it 24 hours after landing, to capture the trip exposure. I considered the risk during the transit much higher compared to being tucked away in my home in an small town in the middle of the Arizona desert. PCR test results took 6 hours, based on which I sent an email to the authorities and released myself from the quarantine.
Let's see how the experience will be in about 5 weeks when I fly back to the USA.
Free Will, from Zubin al Genubi
Free Will is a popular idea, but in reality not nearly as achievable as we would like.
First, nature controls many aspects of your life: your genes, how you look, male/female, your wiring, predispositions, psychological traits. I would say this accounts for 40% of what you do, who you are. Then you have habits and training from youth which have become patterns that are all but impossible to overcome. Give that 25%. Add legal laws, social responsibilities and we're already at 80% determination.
Another big problem is just being aware of what is going on around you. Here are a couple of examples. Ever misplace your keys or iphone even though two minutes before you had them in your hand? Here's another example. I have an infrared floodlight. You can't see it at all at night. But when you look through the night vision scope its lit up bright as day. We just don't sense a lot of what is going on around us. Do you know what your wife is thinking? Here's another example. Can you control what and how much you eat?
Okay, we're up to 90% of what you are and do is controlled or you are unaware of it. You have all these emotions pushing you around. Then add in your wife, kids, work. That leaves us with 3% free will to do as we wish. Sure you can overcome some of it, some of the time, but not many people can, and its really really hard to overcome any of it.
If we could, it would be easy to buy low and sell high. It would be easy to be slim and buff. It's not. Free will is more of an illusion and philosophical concept than a practical reality. As Ralph mentions - patience and nerve. Overcoming the pain of exercising free will. These are part of the elements of free will. It's hard, if not impossible.
Daytrading, from Zubin al Genubi
There is a lot of long term uncertainty, and it seems a lot of daytrading going on. The vol is good again, finally, for day trading. The overnight moves can be pretty wild, so the day session seems a bit more smooth. Also staying up all night is hard nowadays. All the stupid daytrading tricks seem to be possible, MA, the wave bs, 50's effect, momo, maybe even the oscillator's. The little dino vol thing I posted seems okay for about 10 bars. Buy any dip seems to be good. Now that I can see it, its probably about to end. Also its a good way to pick up pennies until the freight train hits you.
An Interview with Ken French, shared by Alston Mabry
A very interesting interview with Ken French.
May 28, 2020
Episode 100
Prof. Kenneth French: