2024

2024-12

• 2024-12-31 — Lions in winter
• 2024-12-29 — Chance, luck, and ignorance: how to put our uncertainty into numbers
• 2024-12-27 — Slab City photos, from Larry Williams
• 2024-12-26 — Cons
• 2024-12-23 — Tariffs on Canadian goods, from David Lillienfeld
• 2024-12-22 — Alfred Cowles
• 2024-12-21 — Deviations from Real Earnings Yields, from Hernan Avella
• 2024-12-20 — On your last leg, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-12-19 — The service rate
• 2024-12-18 — Vanished occupations
• 2024-12-17 — Not conforming to the herd, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-12-16 — Relevant quotes
• 2024-12-15 — LNG: different perspectives, from Carder Dimitroff
• 2024-12-14 — Father and son
• 2024-12-13 — Crazy without provocation
• 2024-12-12 — Positively aging, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-12-10 — The principle of least effort
• 2024-12-09 — This is what recovery looks like, from Bill Rafter
• 2024-12-08 — Doom, bonds, and Elmer Kelton
• 2024-12-05 — Sex and the City and the Times
• 2024-12-03 — Roughing It
• 2024-12-02 — Stop-loss orders: browsing the research, from Humbert X.
• 2024-12-01 — Seasonals, and a deep-thinking man

2024-11

• 2024-11-30 — Productivity and AI, from David Lillienfeld
• 2024-11-25 — From the archives: How To Become a Professional Con Artist
• 2024-11-24 — Stops, from Hernan Avella
• 2024-11-23 — Deems Taylor
• 2024-11-22 — The wisdom, wit, and saltiness - with market implications - of Don Quixote
• 2024-11-21 — Poker player’s brain, from Jeff Watson
• 2024-11-20 — Howard Hammer
• 2024-11-18 — The wisdom of Sancho
• 2024-11-17 — New study by Dimson, et. al.
• 2024-11-16 — Favorite piano
• 2024-11-15 — A case for BTC
• 2024-11-14 — Crypto and the money supply, from Bill Rafter
• 2024-11-12 — Sporting anecdotes
• 2024-11-10 — Tariffs
• 2024-11-07 — Gouging, controls, and heroism
• 2024-11-06 — From the research archives: Predictive and Statistical Properties of Insider Trading
• 2024-11-04 — Poker again - for those times when you need something to study, from Humbert X.
• 2024-11-02 — And the law won
• 2024-11-01 — The beauty of prices

2024-10

• 2024-10-31 — US National Debt possible consequences & hedges, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-10-30 — For Those of Us Who Are Chronically Late to the Party, from Stefan Jovanovich
• 2024-10-28 — A few favorite people
• 2024-10-27 — For the life-advice thread: Letter to a newborn son
• 2024-10-26 — Insights from Elmer Kelton
• 2024-10-25 — Any system gets gamed, from H. Humbert
• 2024-10-24 — Spec variety pack
• 2024-10-23 — Early Voting, from Laurel Kenner
• 2024-10-22 — I made a fake AI podcast about The Chair, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-10-21 — Nuclear: Back to the Future, from Carder Dimitroff
• 2024-10-20 — Nuclear restart: Murphy strikes, from Carder Dimitroff
• 2024-10-19 — Basic counting, applied to the healthcare system, from Big Al
• 2024-10-18 — The Price series, and a nice day in the park
• 2024-10-17 — A reader recommends
• 2024-10-16 — Professor Bejan interview, from Steve Ellison
• 2024-10-15 — Jensen’s inequality, from Big Al
• 2024-10-14 — 1924 Immigration Act, from Stefan Jovanovich
• 2024-10-13 — What Modern Medicine Gets Wrong
• 2024-10-13 — FL insurance markets, from David Lillienfeld
• 2024-10-12 — The ideal PPI
• 2024-10-12 — Asking for recommendations, from Steve Ellison
• 2024-10-11 — The similarities
• 2024-10-10 — Red state:blue state / In state:out state, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-10-09 — Programming Collective Intelligence, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-10-08 — Government planning and efficiency, from Big Al
• 2024-10-07 — What some Specs are keeping an eye on
• 2024-10-05 — Will something happen when 10-2 approaches 1%?, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-10-04 — The multiple comparisons problem, from Big Al
• 2024-10-02 — Maybe G*d plays dice after all, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-10-02 — Dissonance and disbelief
• 2024-10-01 — Book rec, from Carder Dimitroff

2024-09

• 2024-09-30 — Ed Thorp hosts Joseph Granville at UC Irvine (1981), from Big Al
• 2024-09-29 — Review redux: The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom, from Vic
• 2024-09-28 — What is in Brooklyn?, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-09-27 — Hedge funds and the positive idiosyncratic volatility effect, from Big Al
• 2024-09-26 — An informal analysis, and books
• 2024-09-25 — Smörgåsbord
• 2024-09-23 — Methods of trade
• 2024-09-22 — Choking, from Jeff Watson
• 2024-09-18 — Hikes, cuts, and differentials
• 2024-09-18 — Even card counting made the house money
• 2024-09-16 — Cognitive dissonance
• 2024-09-15 — Streaks of down days, from Big Al
• 2024-09-14 — Politics, rackets, markets
• 2024-09-13 — Politics, money
• 2024-09-12 — From the archives, still fresh: The Math Behind the Music, reviewed by Vic
• 2024-09-10 — A statistical read relevant to trader research, from Big Al
• 2024-09-09 — Full-time vs. Part-time Employment, from Bill Rafter
• 2024-09-07 — An excellent book by someone we know
• 2024-09-05 — A call for an emphasis on predictive distributions, from Victor Niederhoffer and the Spec Trio
• 2024-09-04 — Richard Hamming: You & Your Research, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-09-03 — Apparently, it’s not just an American thing - Australia, from Carder Dimitroff
• 2024-09-02 — Counting: Seasonality
• 2024-09-01 — Executive Hobo: The Extraordinary Life of Bo Keeley

2024-08

• 2024-08-31 — Trader longevity
• 2024-08-30 — The warrior’s path, and a favorite song
• 2024-08-29 — Speaking of efficient buildings, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-08-28 — Phenotypic plasticity and reaction norms
• 2024-08-27 — Another stat book recommendation, from Bill Egan
• 2024-08-26 — Speaking of regression
• 2024-08-25 — Counting and ML, from Paolo Pezzutti
• 2024-08-24 — Meaning of “Counting”, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-08-24 — Counting, cycles, and regime change, from Humbert H.
• 2024-08-23 — Counting is one thing, statistics is another, from Carder Dimitroff
• 2024-08-22 — Talks on financial history, from William Huggins
• 2024-08-21 — Creative destruction, primordial edition, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-08-18 — A Spec recalls fondly
• 2024-08-17 — Index of stocks nixed from indexes, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-08-16 — Smart guy talks about AI, from Big Al
• 2024-08-14 — Observations
• 2024-08-13 — Diffusion of Innovations
• 2024-08-12 — Texas Data Centers, from Carder Dimitroff
• 2024-08-11 — From the archives: Vic reviews Trees: Their Natural History, by Peter Thomas
• 2024-08-10 — Grip strength, chair rise-time, one-legged balance predict life expectancy, Kim Zussman
• 2024-08-09 — Another bit of life advice (and maybe good for traders, too)
• 2024-08-08 — More on life advice, from James Goldcamp
• 2024-08-07 — To Aubrey on Leaving for College, from Laurel Kenner
• 2024-08-06 — List for a well-lived life, from Jeff Watson
• 2024-08-05 — How bacteria use the Kelly criterion, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-08-04 — From the archives: An Illustrated Guide to Theoretical Ecology
• 2024-08-03 — European vs American Power Markets, LNG, and Natural Gas, from Carder Dimitroff
• 2024-08-02 — Incentives
• 2024-08-01 — AI wins silver, from Kim Zussman

2024-07

• 2024-07-31 — A comparison
• 2024-07-30 — Intermittent fasting and your noodle, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-07-29 — Federer…on trading?
• 2024-07-28 — Inflection points, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-07-27 — A recent performance of a piece I composed, from Adam Grimes
• 2024-07-26 — Precedent weather-change responses, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-07-25 — Naval art lagniappe
• 2024-07-24 — Mega-Tinderbox buy-and-hold, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-07-23 — Larry Williams and the Big Sky Games, from Pamela Van Giessen
• 2024-07-22 — Probability matching, from Big Al
• 2024-07-21 — Classic SPEC reading list (with movies, too)
• 2024-07-20 — Looking deeper into employment, from Bill Rafter
• 2024-07-19 — The golden ratio
• 2024-07-18 — More on property rights, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-07-17 — A cautionary anecdote about South Africa, from Alex Castaldo
• 2024-07-16 — First and second derivatives of bulk power prices, from Carder Dimitroff
• 2024-07-15 — Possible demand-supply mismatch coming in the power markets, from Carder Dimitroff
• 2024-07-14 — Randomness, with a bit of song
• 2024-07-13 — Goldman Sachs prediction, from K. K. Law
• 2024-07-10 — Correlations, miracles, and rare events
• 2024-07-09 — Floored, from Jeff Watson
• 2024-07-09 — Amazing Weston Lifetime Collection of a Gentleman
• 2024-07-08 — Ralph Vince and Larry Williams Win 2024 CMT Association Charles H Dow Award for Groundbreaking Paper, from Andrew McCauley
• 2024-07-07 — Study on the Psychology of Gamblers, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-07-06 — Identifying Tourism Opportunities With Credit Default Swaps, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-07-03 — Chaos Kings, from Hernan Avella
• 2024-07-02 — What markets teach
• 2024-07-01 — Payroll Tax Receipts Growth thru July 1, 2024, from Bill Rafter

2024-06

• 2024-06-30 — Grandeur, and a very, very good wife
• 2024-06-29 — Canary?, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-06-26 — Bonds, from Hernan Avella
• 2024-06-25 — Bendopnea, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-06-23 — Interview with the Chair from 2020
• 2024-06-20 — Odds, books, and Wilde in America
• 2024-06-18 — Back to school
• 2024-06-17 — NVDA, from Big Al
• 2024-06-16 — Brighton Beach knishes
• 2024-06-15 — Megacaps in Random Land, from Big Al
• 2024-06-14 — Oppenheimer and his students, from M. F. M. Osborne
• 2024-06-12 — Opposites
• 2024-06-12 — Capgras delusion
• 2024-06-11 — Recession of recession indicator, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-06-10 — Stock/Bond ratio, from Hernan Avella
• 2024-06-09 — M. F. M. Osborne recalls Oppenheimer
• 2024-06-08 — Coney Island again
• 2024-06-07 — More classic research
• 2024-06-05 — M. F. M. Osborne
• 2024-06-04 — Anguilla’s country domain is “.ai”. Guess what?, from Big Al
• 2024-06-01 — Demonstration of Non-linear Effects Using Volumes of Cones, Asindu Drileba

2024-05

• 2024-05-31 — Kings of the Court
• 2024-05-30 — NYC history lagniappe
• 2024-05-29 — A good overview, from Hernan Avella
• 2024-05-28 — The Last Bear, from Humbert H.
• 2024-05-27 — Weekend Reading, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-05-26 — The Oceans and the Stars , from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-05-25 — Looking back at Spec research history
• 2024-05-24 — Slow to adapt, from Big Al
• 2024-05-23 — The Whole Story
• 2024-05-22 — AI again: weather forecasting, from Big Al
• 2024-05-21 — Last Train to Paradise
• 2024-05-19 — Took 25 years but they (and Vic) were right, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-05-18 — Following the money, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-05-17 — Vienna
• 2024-05-16 — “Index young man, index!”, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-05-15 — Florence Nightingale, statistician
• 2024-05-13 — TLT returns, from Big Al
• 2024-05-12 — Cost of Carry, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-05-11 — Small business, from Laurel Kenner
• 2024-05-10 — Same-Weekday Momentum
• 2024-05-09 — Teller of tales
• 2024-05-08 — Commodities voyeurism (and also some ride-hitching for Bo), from Big Al
• 2024-05-07 — Sogi levels, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-05-06 — Thomas Sowell’s personal journey
• 2024-05-05 — For the O’Brian fans
• 2024-05-04 — The Doctor Is In. And He’s an Orangutan, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-05-03 — Odds and highlights
• 2024-05-02 — Smörgåsbord for the beginning of May

2024-04

• 2024-04-30 — For the cowboys thread
• 2024-04-29 — Follow-up to bourgeois virtues
• 2024-04-28 — A good antidote
• 2024-04-27 — A few useful ideas
• 2024-04-25 — FTC Announces Rule Banning Noncompetes, from Big Al
• 2024-04-24 — Pandemics good for profits, from Big Al
• 2024-04-23 — Speak of the devil, from William Huggins
• 2024-04-21 — Very bullish
• 2024-04-21 — Good book, good food, good company
• 2024-04-20 — More superstitious than we like to admit, from Nils Poertner
• 2024-04-19 — Sins of omission, from Big Al
• 2024-04-18 — Sooner or later, from Nils Poertner
• 2024-04-17 — Bits and pieces
• 2024-04-16 — Higher for longer, from Nils Poertner
• 2024-04-15 — Reading (and viewing) recommendations
• 2024-04-14 — Lunar cycles, from Steve Ellison
• 2024-04-13 — Memorylessness, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-04-11 — Uncle Roy on emotions and trading
• 2024-04-10 — Gould, Fisk, and Black Friday
• 2024-04-09 — Ideas for markets from Bill James
• 2024-04-07 — Interesting research
• 2024-04-06 — Daniel Kahneman on regression to the mean, from Big Al
• 2024-04-05 — Disruption wins: 3% of companies created all the wealth, from Humbert H.
• 2024-04-02 — Unintended (intended) consequences, from Kim Zussman

2024-03

• 2024-03-31 — Story from the Old West
• 2024-03-30 — An example of regression from the man who changed baseball
• 2024-03-29 — Weekend reading
• 2024-03-26 — Timeless advice
• 2024-03-25 — History of KC BBQ, from Humbert Humbert
• 2024-03-24 — An Alternate Understanding of “All Time High”, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-03-21 — Deep Enough
• 2024-03-19 — Simpson’s paradox
• 2024-03-17 — Body Snatchers
• 2024-03-14 — An interesting study of change
• 2024-03-13 — Contextualization, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-03-12 — Sandhills Boy
• 2024-03-11 — More Dimock
• 2024-03-10 — An interesting period to study, from Steve Ellison
• 2024-03-07 — Price Signals, Price Gouging, and Philanthropy
• 2024-03-06 — Wisdom from Dimock, Wall Street and the Wilds, circa 1870
• 2024-03-02 — ATH, from Zubin Al Genubi

2024-02

• 2024-02-29 — A +1 for the inspiring story, from Kim Zussman
• 2024-02-28 — Fractal scaling and the aesthetics of trees, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-02-26 — Predictions, and inspiration
• 2024-02-25 — A textbook example
• 2024-02-24 — Meals for a lifetime
• 2024-02-23 — Backlash against travel meme, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-02-22 — Games again, from Big Al
• 2024-02-21 — Unforgettable and brilliant things
• 2024-02-20 — Many lessons, from Jeff Watson
• 2024-02-19 — Trailhead (or rabbit hole), from Big Al
• 2024-02-18 — What Makes for ‘Good’ Mathematics?
• 2024-02-15 — Intervention, and a fable
• 2024-02-12 — Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Annotated Edition, from Victor Niederhoffer
• 2024-02-11 — Game theory
• 2024-02-07 — Nvidia $200 Billion in 3 Days, from Cagdas Tuna
• 2024-02-06 — AI can solve complex geometry problems
• 2024-02-05 — Trading smörgåsbord
• 2024-02-04 — Convergence under CLT, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-02-03 — Russ Roberts likes Milei’s economics
• 2024-02-02 — A certain chair; price controls

2024-01

• 2024-01-31 — The benefits of small business
• 2024-01-28 — Revelations of The Prisoners Dilemma, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-01-27 — Bitcoin forecast, from Larry Williams
• 2024-01-27 — An inspiring passage
• 2024-01-26 — With direct applications to markets
• 2024-01-26 — Variance swap, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-01-25 — David Deutsch on Bayesianism, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-01-24 — For the Darwin fans, from Peter Saint-Andre
• 2024-01-22 — The Poisson Process and Poisson Distribution, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-01-21 — Wall Street And The Wilds
• 2024-01-20 — Useful bears
• 2024-01-19 — Numberphile interview with Jim Simons, from Big Al
• 2024-01-17 — The sin-eater
• 2024-01-17 — Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-01-16 — IID, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-01-14 — The Wisdom of Rationals, from Asindu Drileba
• 2024-01-12 — On sizing and return
• 2024-01-11 — NVDA up 6% on Monday, from Steve Ellison
• 2024-01-10 — Mises Stationarity Index, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-01-09 — Books, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-01-09 — Art for sale
• 2024-01-09 — A fellow spec with deep macro knowledge, from Theo Athanasiadis
• 2024-01-08 — Futures beat forex again, from Larry Williams
• 2024-01-07 — Mean Absolute Deviation, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-01-07 — Lee Stern: legendary trader, from Jeff Watson
• 2024-01-07 — Infinite variable not distributed normally, from Zubin Al Genubi
• 2024-01-01 — Quant ballyhoo, from Zubin Al Genubi