Earlier posts · Page 17
Books for 2020
Some books I’ve read (or re-read) recently which I would strongly recommend:
1.The New Class War, Michael Lind
2.Worlds Hidden in Plain Sight: The Evolving Idea of Complexity at the Santa Fe Institute: 1984-2019, David C. Krakauer, Editor
3.The Age of Entitlement, Christopher Caldwell
4.The Parasitic Mind, Gad Saad
5.The Stakes, Michael Anton
6.The Coming of Neo-Feudalism, Joel Kotkin
7.Small Men on the Wrong Side of History, Ed West
8.On Diversity: The Eclipse of the Individual in a Global Era, Russell Jacoby
9.Great Society: A New History, Amity Shlaes
10.Unmasking the Administrative State: The Crisis of American Politics in the 21st Century, John Marini
11.Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History, Peter Turchin
12.The Zurich Axioms, Max Gunther
13.Love in the Ruins, Walker Percy
14.Such Counsels You Gave To Me, Robinson Jeffers
Untitled
Laurence Glazier writes:
In Sci Fi the Peter Hamilton trilogies and Adrian Tchaikovsky's tales.
But my main find in 2020 is the app Notion - notion.so - and among other uses for it I have been applying Tiago Forte's Second Brain method for storing favourite snippets for future access. If anything I find more wisdom in fiction than non-fiction. in a sense that makes it truer.
James Goldcamp writes:
Hi Laurence - Can you expand on how you use this app and Second Brain method. I've actually been contemplating some kind of note app particularly for the purpose of putting excerpts and ideas from things I read or thoughts I have more at my fingertips. I've willfully resisted such technology to this point but think something along these lines might be useful
Leo Jao writes:
Just checked a bit on Notion, can't yet recommend about its advantages, but have noticed major drawbacks of a note taking software. In the past years, I have tried and used quite a few of them. Of course in this age, a key feature is being able to sync notes across devices. The big names include Evernote, OneNote, Keep, in addition to other lesser known one's. One issue is at some point in time, one gets concerned about privacy and security of the contents, as with these sync'able platforms, contents are all stored in their servers. For this or other reasons, one wants to switch to other platforms at some point. There then is a key issue: one can't easily take the contents away! Notion has these two issues. I see that it can export a single note, but misses a feature of exporting all notes.
For the past year, I settled on an open source software called Joplin. For syncing, it provides various ways without having to use a public server. Notes can be easily exported.
Michael Chuprin writes:
Victor's contribution to this thread:
In no specific order:
1.The Psychology of Speculation: The Human Element in Stock Market Transactions
2.Fourteen Methods of Operating in the Stock Market
3.The Mad Dog 100: The Greatest Sports Arguments of All Time
4.Wealth, War and Wisdom
5.The West of the Imagination
6.Darwin
7.Regression Analysis and Linear Models: Concepts, Applications, and Implementation
8.Man on Earth: A Celebration of Mankind: Portraits of Human Culture in a Multitude of Environments
9.Voices of the French Revolution
10.The Decline and Fall of the British Empire, 1781-1997
11.Lone Star Rising: The Texas Rangers Trilogy
Tweets-Dec/2/2020
always remember that one of the main purposes of markets is to induce vig to make the public churn and generally to do the wrong thing
no betterexample of this is gold..itwent dlwncontinuusy 200 bucks about 9 in 10 days lat 2 weeks.whetherbitcoitnwent up or downwhether sp was up ordonw,whether thewokes were inascendancy ornnot. then out of clear blue sky yest it went up 40 bucks
np better example ofhtis is how the market movesaroundat the opening it goes above andbelwo teh sogi byy5 points. the only way you ca catchit is to do a market order..the high frequency boy beat you and create 1 fuull pointn of vig . i.e if yuselll a=whenits at 55 you're lucky
upi get 5375 for morehtna 5 contracts. if you try to disgusie your order, the clearing firms alll have algoriths to repor tyou to the excange. you have to sign a a doc when they haul you infor hiding your limits that you wont reveal the star chanbericeedings. if you try to
simulat e to reduce the vig edge,they charge you for spoofing. and the courts amaingly have been convinced that trying to lelvel the playingfield inone or a dozen ways is a crime where the punishment can be 1000 times the dollars at issue.
a numberof bkgmediasent memosoutthatwe face uncertaintimes and stocks coud go down for a hundred different reasons. are there more reasons now than the average of the last 100years. andif so is it bullish orbearsih. my favorite newspaper is one of the main culprit in this
but i have tos ay that the big data srive provider was 100% bearish before the electionto create a terriblel aura . but now they are much more neutral . again is this bull or bear:
Tweets-Dec/1/2020
The higher we go the more bearish and anti the wsj and market watch and others become
bonds down 2 full points flirtiing with 3 month lows and greeting ms kinsellen appropriately
Something I Noticed in The Tbond Futures Roll
Alex Castaldo writes:
Last Friday was the day to roll long positions in ZB futures: to sell
the December futures (which are nearing expiration) and buy the March futures instead. I noticed something a little puzzling. For the last 2 years the far away (new contract) future was cheaper than the nearby one (the old contract). But last Friday it was the opposite:
2PriceDate old contr new contr oc price nc price roll cost
05/30/2018 ZBM8 ZBU8 145 14/32 144 19/32 - 27/32
08/30/2018 ZBU8 ZBZ8 144 31/32 144 7/32 - 24/32
11/29/2018 ZBZ8 ZBH9 140 4/32 139 16/32 - 20/32
02/28/2019 ZBH9 ZBM9 145 4/32 144 15/32 - 21/32
05/30/2019 ZBM9 ZBU9 153 2/32 152 14/32 - 20/32
08/29/2019 ZBU9 ZBZ9 166 2/32 165 8/32 - 26/32
11/27/2019 ZBZ9 ZBH0 160 3/32 159 10/32 - 25/32
02/27/2020 ZBH0 ZBM0 168 16/32 167 15/32 -1 1/32
05/28/2020 ZBM0 ZBU0 178 21/32 177 2/32 -1 19/32
08/28/2020 ZBU0 ZBZ0 176 14/32 174 25/32 -1 21/32
11/27/2020 ZBZ0 ZBH1 173 28/32 175 1/32 +1 5/32
As long as short term interest rates (repo rates) are positive, it would seem that an object delivered 3 months further away should be cheaper than the same object delivered 3 months sooner. (The good old Time Value of Money). Which makes me think that the Cheapest to Deliver for ZB March 2021 must be different from the CTD for ZB December 2020 if the March is priced higher? But I am not sure if this explanation is correct. And I find it disturbing that even though I traded tbonds for a while I do not fully understand some of the basic mechanics. Do you have any insight? Why did the price difference (technically know as the Roll Cost) flip like this?
George Zachar writes:
On Bloomberg, pull up USZ0 and USH1 CMTY DLV.
The cheapest to delivers did change:
Z0 = 4.5% '36
H1 = 5.0% '37
New High for BTC
Andrew Aiken writes:
BTC made a new ATH this morning, nominally at least.
I expect a strong breakthrough move, although such a move may take a few days.
The rally from March has not been accompanied by much notice from retail financial media.
Instead, there has been significant adoption by traditional money managers (Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, etc) and corporate treasuries (e.g. Microstrategy).
For lower-risk exposure to crypto, I suggest taking a look at Galaxy Digital Holdings (ADR: BRPHF), a crypto-focused asset management firm with additional lines of business in prime brokerage, market-making, and investment banking in the space.
At current BTC and ETH prices, it trades at an 8% discount to tangible book value (not AUM).
The firm holds 16,651 BTC ($327M) in its corporate treasury alone.
https://bitcointreasuries.org/
Dendi Suhubdy writes:
Fyi I’m building a crypto derivatives exchange test it out here https://testnet.bitwyre.com. Will be live on https://bitwyre.com on new years eve
Middle East Power Politics
Another Bold Strike Against Iran - WSJ paywall By Reuel Marc Gerecht This “Commentary” in today’s WSJ is a good piece about Middle East power politics. It is a refreshing challenge to the fake news of Iran’s claims that the recent attack on its nuclear scientist was done remotely, being somewhat pedaled by AP.
Tweets-Nov/30/2020
a full marxian rally. they tried everything , the round number , the big decline at noon, but they couldn't keep it down
Tweets-Nov/29/2020
does the sp tend to close at certain numbeer based on the tens digiit with inordinate frequency. ie.3620-3629 is labeled a 2. 267o- 2679 labeled a 7 ?
yes it tends to close att a 7 in the tens digit. chi squared = 20
closes at 0-99 245 closes at 100-199=218. closes at 200-299 = 225 closes at 700-800 =276 data for 1 -1 2019 to present 11-26 2020
Tweets-Nov/24/2020
it was quite a fight. considering everything, the incumbent did well…. Now we' lll see how the progressives like the new economic order. and if they destroy themselves as in the French revolution.andwelll see how the market likes collectivism
i am asked to recommend a book ono the french rev. i recommend "voices of the French revolution by Richard Cobb… it has alll the events from contemperaneos souces withh illustrations and( you cna draw your own conclustions as to the similartiteis of today. robespierre et
https://acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817… inspired by one Big after another coming up with vaccines that replace placebos that lead to 0.5% incidence of disease
https://youtube.com/watch?v=3gg2Jv2ebns… by chance study showing miniscy=ule efficacy of masks is from same caracker barrel of what i meant to send regardiing the marginal efficacy and absurd cost benefit of current crop of vaccines..we live intupsy turvy times. one is long gold
a type 1 error the fda gueards against . falsly rejacting a hypothesis that is true. a 5% prob of rejcitn s true is usually applied.. but not taken into consideratin are the type 2 errors for falsely accepting that a treatment doesnt work when it does. Andy Lo always
Andy Lo always on point with rigorous and useful analysis in finance and health https://alo.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/FDA_26.pdf
Tweets-Nov/23/2020
the key questioon with the vaccines is with alll thehoundred ofthousand + enrolled in the studies andthemanyhurdles concerning theregisteringof the results andthe histeresis in the results and the many steps that must occur to check and diagnose, why didnt the results
of at least one get reported before the election..i already reported the histeresis of one big pharma via a little bird.presumably the bird would have found morsels of wok e in the other two also. is there no non-woke in any of the three and counting for more
the applicants and the interests of camp kinsellla just hit a 4 year max
the great amerinvestor pokes some fun at me . he expresses theidea that the incumb mishandled the pandemic. but the incumb cleared all the bureacracy and infernal conservatism of the fda and got them to try to cure people without covering their tuches balancing the
benefits against ther side efects inrecord time.its just that appparently there is not one supporter in big pharma who is gratefull for the unchaining that the incumb facilitated. at
at least there was no one at big pharma with the courage to go agaiinst the polls and possibly help the incumbent by providing the good news that they knew about for sure in one case and could or should hav eknown about in the others. Profesor Peltzman is not
the grisly comparison would have applied here but bureacracy was overcome by the incumbent desptie the 99% at the cdc and dr. cattle trader who strove to prevent it
oh is there not one pharma there who had the result earlier pirates of penzance is there not one maiden
https://youtube.com/results?search_query=pirates+of+penzance+is+there+not+one+maiden
Tweets-Nov/22/2020
reflections. 1/ the most improtant thing in markets and life is to be adaptable' the ability to adopt a way of life to the prevailing circumstances, the ability to find a way of achievingdesirable ends to the prevailing circumstancesn " the ability to siove a problem"
the adaptability qutoe is from Man on earth a fascinating sooy of how all different peooplel and occuarpions and geilgraphy adapt to their particular circumstances. 2 it brings to mind Barton Biggs excelletn book wealth war and wisdom. he gives numerous examples
https://goodreads.com/book/show/2243623.Wealth_War_and_Wisdom… biggs shows how when darkest inworld war 2 an and t the us was losign battlbe iliek Pearl Haarbor and Rommel was mopping upp and fdr ad inaugurated to pessimism like we have wintessed the market looked ahead and went up amid a max of pessimsm
3 the psycholoogy of speculation harper 1926 containsmorewisdom about spec than alllthe nobel prizes that have come down the road for cognitivsbbiaes etc. Here a typical quote" the sold out bulll becomes wretchedly aware that he has dropped otuof the race before the course
sold out bull . 3 was completedand so has thrownout an opportunity to make milllions more " and to make matters worse thay want to make it in the same way thye missed it the first time
- the progressives areholding theirfire about meeing with acertain group espousing " matters" the understand that most votes feel that nowadsy ther is more like to be a bias for preference than discrimination. the progressives wailt until they settle in.then the deluge
the vaccination tests seem like their cost benefit is neg. i assume 25000 lacebo that had 100 positive versus2 5000 that had readl vaccine with only 5 who had disease. thus 0.4. % you get disease. and if you get it , chances are 2 you have sympoms. so for
100000 that didnt have test thhey 2 willl get symptoms the disruption to 99998 the time spent the possible side effects of the 99950 that take the vaccine would seem to be more han the net negative to the 2 who ddint take it. let's say im off by factor of 5 or 10. same conlsn.
many chemo drugs extend your life by 6 months at teh cost of 6 month to a year of misery and side effects and vistis away from home to hospital. ifis it worth it?
half of 45000 in study received placebo. so my figures seem to order of 5 or 10 to b3e correct
Tweets-Nov/21/2020
holding your fire. the sp stayed within 1 pt ofr 3570 on every half hour until 345. then it dropped 30 pooitns in last 1 minutes. 2 Bernie wants to be labor secretary but is holding stridency back.3. the new economy forum holdsmeeting alll week to emphasize climate change
its apparent that the progressives are holding fire in many ways until their man is in control and theycan receive their reperations for support of challenger. query. what willl trnaspire when the final stretch drive, the climactic moment near end of race
Tweets-Nov/20/2020
For the first time, white shoe man at treasury says somehting non-woke , i.e. bailotus willl not continue in force, and the market immediately drops 1%. why has he changed his colors? a meeting at wood shed with the incumbent?an effort to differentiate from Pocohontus?
one goes bak to theme of market s for last 3 months. the market loves collectivism. and when a free market thing is bruuited about it collapses
nasdaq futurues p laying foootsie with another constructal numer at 12000
all 38 half hour prices from yest at 8 pm within 2 points of 3570. this isnt cricket. how is the ;ublic goig to lose their proper amount. how is the infrastructures goign to generate volume? how r Members going to prospe ron a day like this holding fire until mond
Tweets-Nov/19/2020
a close of down 1% that will resonate forever
the tech agrarians getting RICHER RElATIVE TO sta id investors
muST BE bad news for incumbent nasdaq up 1% more than sp. hav you tested that?
heard at the Tresury. "welll split the difference " before native american takes ovef
The Way We Train AI is Fundamentally Flawed
Leo Jia writes:
Underspecification. Observed effects can have many possible causes. So when you have say 50 models that analyze the causes from various prospectives, and all worked well in tests, but in the real world on a specific case, they present different results, and you are faced with uncertainty as to which one to take. This also relates to our mind and life experiences, doesn't it? In life, one has learned how to do all this and all that, but when faced with a situation, one struggles on what approach to take.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/11/18/1012234/training-machine-learning-broken-real-world-heath-nlp-computer-vision/
Dendi Suhubdy writes:
It’s not fundamentally flawed at all. I’ve been working with a Turing award winner in deep learning since 2016 and built multiple startups in the field of deep learning.
I can say it relies on the backpropagation algorithm, which means it needs to have the function (linear or non-linear, nonlinear for deep neural networks) to be differentiable (what we call the backward pass). When we do inference (or the foward pass) it’s just simply matrix multiplication of (weights * prev_input) + bias.
Now to achieve a better understanding of how our world works, we need to have to learn from few-shots, or zero-shots. Also we need to be able to quickly learn from a smaller sample size. This problem is hard and I believe we (the deep learning people) are working on it.
Larry W writes:
I have spent a lot of money developing AI trading strategies and so far…none of them are better—or even close —to man-made strategies
Israeli scientists claim to reverse aging process - The Jerusalem Post
Change in Settlement Procedure for S&P Eminis
Alex Castaldo writes:
BUT THIS IS NO LONGER THE CASE. Since Monday October 26, 2020 the CME always uses 4pm as the settlement time. So the 4:15 price and the settlement are now different every day, not just on the last day of the month.
Steve Ellison writes:
Thanks, Doc. I had done a double take a couple of times when the S&P 500 settlement price was completely outside the range of the last 15-minute bar. For example, on November 12 the range of the 16:00-16:15 period was 3543.75 to 3533.00, but the emini settlement price was 3532.50. Because I do intermarket analysis, I have long kept a separate database of each day's 16:00 price in the S&P 500 and other markets (US Eastern time).
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
more important what is the predictive properties of the move from 1600 to the real 1615 price
US CPI 0.00%
Dr. Zacek writes:
Question for all the smart people here. Why is the CPI 0% in the USA if whatever I buy here in AZ, I pay considerably more compared to 9 months ago (end Feb)?
What is it I am missing? What did go cheap sooo much to compensate the CPI composition for all this:
Organic Eggs +50%
Coca Cola tins/bottles +20-30%
Toilet paper +30-50%
Full tank of gas +20%
Long term apartment rent +15-20%
Property prices +30%
Construction Labor +25%
Average Hollywood movie shoot/location per day +75%
Firearms +25-30%
Ammo +150%
Average doctor bill +xxx%
Rudolf Hauser writes:
One problem is the unchanged market basket at a time when people’s buying habits have changed. So one sees declines in such things as airline prices because fewer people are flying but the weight that receives in the calculation has not changed. Meanwhile, prices of many items in demand are rising.
Tweets-Nov/17/2020
the more agrarian we get, the more bullish we. are what the market need is an enumeration of all those who didnt vote agrarian, and systematic enumeration of their property as a door opener
Been Sued Once Before; Good Dinner Time Story
In 1987 I was managing some accounts lady by the name of Susan B Kringle opened an account with 60,000 and closed it out about a year later at close to $450,000 (just a hot streak I assure you) then sued me for—hold on to your seatbelts—$53,000,000.
Seems she and her lawyer. Gary Sinclair, thought her account, at a different brokerage firm, should have had the same results as the account I had in a trading championship.
Eventually, after some legal costs, the judge through it out. You can’t sue for speculative damages. He also asked if was still taking accounts. I wasn’t and haven’t since. Maybe not for you guys but for me losing a $53 million dollar law suit would really hurt.
Now this current guy, today says he has pancreatic cancer and “Please don’t let me down, I want to re-subscribe”
There are lots of fake newsletter publishers out there but In the recent years….lots of fake subscribers. I will save the best story for next time
Happy Trails to all
Views on Financial Transact Tax
Alex Castaldo writes:
Hello fellow Spec Listers -
I'm curious as to anybody's informed take on the likelihood of the implementation of a Financial Transaction Tax, especially at a Federal Level - as this would quite materially harm our craft. Looking to learn more, and to prepare if necessary by pivoting asset classes / markets etc.
Kim Zussman writes:
https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research-centers/centers-initiatives/international-center-for-finance/data/historical-financial-research-data/st-petersburg-stock-exchange-project
Tweets-Nov/14/2020
contrived, woke fictional story, queen s gambit part of Obama view of world. much better is harry dents the bobby fisher I knew
correction.excellent book that tells the real story of brilliant and memorable loesseresque chess pleyers from the 50's tp 70' s
Tweets-Nov/13/2020
many ifs 1 " if the big pharma had announced or indicated reultas when they had them a week before elec.2 if the media hadnt black listed all news of son of chall.3 if Puppet scientist whose actions are like the cattle trader he loved gave his first positive talk befr elect
- if media had dug in to finance and wealth of chal. family 5. if big bus and big tech wasnt 96% iin support and fin aid to chall. . What else would have changed results?
Excellent Book
Subject: Re: [SPEC-LIST] excellent book https://www.amazon.com/Bobby-Fischer-Other-Stories-literature/dp/1886040184/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_1?dchild=1&keywords=arnold+denker+the+bobby+fisher+i+knew&qid=1605369810&sr=8- great stories of brilliant and pro active chess playeers from 50 years ago.
Speaking of stories:
Each episode focuses on incredible stories from hockey’s biggest names, greatest characters and unsung heroes. Narrated by James Duthie, legends of the game tell their stories over an immersive audio landscape.
Tweets-Nov/12/2020
remember one of the main attributes ofthe market is to foce you to pay frothe infra structrue, the welllcapitalzied and the members. today its ina holding pattern. how can you dothe wrong thing
at least its honoring the man from Hawaii with the ukulele and the surfingr
ally at20.5 possible
Tweets-Nov/11/2020
new alll time highs in stocks.crude at 20 day hi gold at20 day low and b onds a gnat away from big lo. betting ods incumb has same chances at 13%to gain pres as Dems have to gain senate.
Tweets-Nov/10/2020
a little bird that has access to the inside of a big companys vaccine results told me that the big comPANY had the results a week ago but didnt releave them until today as they didnt want to help a certain incumbent
some have responded to my little bird tweet that they feel it is funny. 1let me say first that I would never communicate soemthing like that unless i was quite certain that what the little bird said was true. 2. let me say it's notfunny. it's very sad that the poor
the poor personage not only had to overcome the 95% of emploees in the relevant agencies who supported the challenger, but also the ceo's of those working to create value for their consumers p
to say nothing about the scientist who wrote a love letter to the cattle trader and whose every utterance served to sink the incumbent inclluding his wapo interview the weekend before the election. on such smalll strands can a civiliztion destroy itself
it is good that my youngest daughter used her biochemistry degree to become a dr in a southern Medical school rather than working in the Pharma industry where she mite have interned
hello mr. sogi how the kona coffee a little higher ground than your surfing
accordingn to the betting odds(lott stossel) the chances that the r's will both lose the presidency and in conjuntion lose the senate is 20%
a hard fought game adjourned with winning chances
Miso Yaki BBQ Salmon
Please only use wild salmon, never farm Salmon as the industry is infecting waterways with virus. Sous vide Salmon for 30 min at 125F for flaky, lower for firmer wetter texture.
Dengaku Miso Topping/ (BBQ sauce)
3/4 cup less 1 Tbs white miso,
2 egg yolks,
2 Tbs Sake.
2 Tbsps Mirin;
2 Tbs sugar;
7 Tbs dashi (Hondashi).
Add one: toasted sesame seens, or grated rind of yuzu citron/lime, or fresh ginger juice.
Put miso in double boiler, and before putting over hot water blend in egg yolks, sake, mirin and sugar. Place over simmering water and gradually add dashi…stir til thick. At the last moment add 1 seasoning.
Paint on sous vided salmon, and place on BBQ (or broil) for 30 seconds to a minute.
As we say in Hawaii, "Broke da mouth!"
Tweets-Nov/9/2020
some moves. bonds down to new 20 dat kiw at 17050, incumb odds up 3% at 10%, crude above 40 at 10 day hi,gold down 70, vaccine if 2 days ealiear would have changed election results. held bak to create misery
a tweeet from Mr.availla. thinking like a cynic spec " the best part is that theyheld bakthe vaccine news. a true american coup. doubtless pfizer needed the extra 3 days to access outcome
Tweets-Nov/8/2020
market 1/2% away from all time high as collectivism reaches a max and guillotine comes into focus. also the largest rise from close to open ever
correction 3 rd largest rise from 1615 to 1815
we did it 3534 previous alll time closing hi
only 3 times its been up this much alll w ere up big form 3537 for alll susquent time periods that;s not a predicition
just responding to a request from estimabel mr. tiger
Tweets-Nov/6/2020
playing footsie with the round number of 3500 as woke prepare to take vengeance and exculpatory congrats to r's come down the pike
for the market to be commpletly happy and marxism to reach its acme the d's would have to take senate whitch seems 5 times more likely than thei ncumbent winning at this stage
there are quite a few red marks on the ladies nylons
what they all have in common " blue wave that wasnt","strong showing in red states", " resurgence in Latino and black voters " " how did r's avert disaster","the turnaround in R's showiing so much better than polls" all attempts to congrat and mollifu r's for losing
Can We Have an Anonymous
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
Report on what seems to avalla and me likek pfizer held bak their results. was it planned to be after election or did they just report it late. eitherway, its very suspicious and certainly affected the electio
K. K. Law writes:
Need to dig into it to find the truth. It is entirely possible the MSM plus many tech companies including big pharmas are behind influencing the election to make sure Trump lose. As much as the left "wishes" to put the election behind, this is far from being done. It is not until the Supreme Court has made the final decision after reviewing all the submitted evidences and hearing sworn testimonies. I saw the words, "Hear, Hear." Exactly, let us hear what the Supreme Court has to decide and say. The election and the trades are interrelated. There are chances one may have to switch back to "Biden lose, Trump win" trades. We shall see.
Jordan Neuman writes:
The SuJordan Neumanpreme Court will probably not take the cases.
Gus Glads writes:
Pfizer made its timeline very clear from the beginning. Was transparent from the start. The company outlined its process and gave a clear roadmap in October. Read below. Additionally, Pfizer from the beginning has never been part of Operation Warp Speed and has not taken any govt money for R&D.
https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla?linkId=102134275
As for the Supreme Court. Trump and his “legal” team was 0-10 entering today in courts across America since Election Day as it relates to cases of election fraud and this morning his team’s most recent attempt in Lansing, Michigan Cout of Appeals was rejected by Judge Cynthia Stephens with the following language: “I regret to inform you that your submission is defective.” The reason being the submission was missing 4 key elements of evidence and support that they claimed to possess.
What’s Next
Michael Cook writes:
Ok, so assuming Biden gets called today or the weekend - which starts to look likely, what is next for the markets?
If Trump obsessively focuses on lawyers and anger/anguish, do we not get next stimulus until late January just as Covid cases rocket? So the sugar high we have been on basically gets its sugar removed?
I get the relief rally on the back of (I assume) no blue wave, tech breakup, paralysis is good etc, but once the dust settles - isnt this actually bad, at least for the next couple of months - or am I miss reading this?
Jeffery Watson writes:
One could make a case that the market doesn't care about who's the boss as long as stocks can carry themselves. After all, what will really change about the nuts and bolts of things? Will the clerk at the DMV, the food inspector, the apparatchik, the cop, the local judge, pr the IRS agent suddenly change their stripes and modus operandi with a new president?
Tweets-Nov/5/2020
correction typo the fomc should be bulll today… theyre on their guard
Tweets-Nov/4/2020
hpe springs eternal but ultimately the odds willl go to 1 % incumbent and theyll stilll be fighting and excusing rather than succombing to marxism.. its good to be a good loser. shake te tooher persons hand . thank the referree and see wahat youve leaarned formyour def
and ater shakig hands a re compplimenting the winner. of course " hows Soros
and of course after the " hows soros" … can I get you and your running mate a drink.. many times i've been in a similar position to the loser. i can remember t han all. how it hurts to go bak to the locket room and see what you[ve learned and h ow to regroup
tomorrow another day for market. and the Fed should be contrite and learning to marx but this time enough is enough and the market mite succomb
There are so many news opinions about how the incumbent did so much better than the polls showing how good the effort was and how he should be congratulated. It reminds me of all the articles that cast aspersions on a champion who was the favorite and win a hard 5 set match.
those are the kind that one loves to win. gives the loser a undeserved does of confidence . but the pleasure is greatest when you win a close one as it so demoralizes the loses and cases him so much pain
leaves the looes and his supported with a box of "if onlys" ratjer than getting bak to the drawing boards and fixing his game.
B litigated against nephew Karl. ( finaly won by threatening to move bak to Bonn). Lert us hope that the former incumbent doesnt make the same mistake as B and Ryan. as out friend, the great wiswell said "after a loss it's bak to the drawing boards rite away
Tweets-Nov/3/2020
the late money favors plywood futures
bonds up at new high stocks at minimum down 21. marxists are losing. least senate will be rep ublica n
same results for sp as last time. oddnow 20 1 in favor trump. as soon as odds starting go for trum the spwnet u50 ppts form 3350 to 3410 . bods nwo up only 1 1/2 pointsp
odds now 69.5 % for trump to win and 30% fior biiden to win from lott stpssel site. funny to see the odds chanbe y 33.5% for tump and -34% for biden in last day
Tweets-Nov/1/2020
very rare consilience of 20 day minum in bonds and sp both as of friday close;;this too will pass, especially 10 days later for both
cnn.com/2020/10/30/health/household-spread-covid-19-wellness/index.html… the swamp continue to do whatever they can to do incumbent in.. the study seems lie propaganda. how woudlyou refute it? for one k what is the symptiom and outcome rate?
My Main Inquiries, Coming Out of This Election
Alex Forshaw writes:
-
Is it possible to determine what % of dead people (alt'y, what % of people over 110 years old) voted for Biden over Trump, where they live, and when they last voted? AFAICT, so far, the dead demo is 100 percent for Biden, and turnout was up at least 100 percent over 2016/2012. This was a devastating rebuke to 160 years of shameless GOP voter suppression.
-
More dead voters have voted for Biden than have shown up for all of Biden's campaign rallies, combined. Outstanding GOTV by the Biden campaign here, especially considering that they had no GOTV for most, if not all, other demos.
3. Dead Lives Matter! Just from sampling social media, dead voters are clearly the fastest-growing demographic in the United States, and Biden's outreach to this underserved minority was amazing. What policies & voter outreach should GOP'ers consider in order to compete for this underserved demographic?
K.K. Law writes:
If there is a way to quantify voter frauds such as dead people's votes, illegal people's votes and people casting votes multiple times and destroying GOP votes, that would be great. I am sure all these happen but just don't know the magnitude.
Tweets-Oct/29/2020
cellophane big guy wiens his lead in betting odds slitely markets at 20 day minimum should be up from here by closes
residents of big ciities whether red or blue prepare for storming of bastille by hiring armed guards .
at lest the bonds at a new 20 day low dont want bailoutws and lock downs
free associations venezuala , e Germany vers w germany, Us as failed nation, many replete with inequities, waiting liens at emergency rooms, paying 50% more for health plans, young people losing opp to invest in future, activities that make life worth livng,, French Rev.
reflexively racist,pessimistic view, cllapsed buildings, "unrest collapsed buildings, monuments, cancel culture,smartest guy I know, likely cabinet intellect, market prefers collectivism, betting odds at 70%, 400 million arbitraged,,bookies dont allow for 52 % against
pessimism about country carries over to nasdaq, stocks just a gnat above tues, low and 20 day low at 11200, earnings reports all beats brought nas down 2%
an interesting read from commentary carried by the wssj
the final quote is timeless. commentary poitn sout that Trump is not a wel mannered conservative who speaks in elegant terms and reads good boooks. He s like the coommon man that Truman was. he consludes " The average american is a common man . As a result we are the
we are the riches, powerful, tolerant, and freeist in Human human history
lets Try
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
Tony Bobulinski held presser claiming Joe Biden knew about Hunter's business deals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiiSq7toqlQ
Bill Egan writes:
Bill Rafter has a very nice model.
Yes, rolling windows mean you cannot use standard inference.
So what?
Use the levels and turning points and curve shapes. Apply visual pattern recognition.
Look back over 20-30 years and see how it performs. For example, high volatility vs low volatility years can cause differences.
You are missing out on $$$ by insisting on using only methods where inference works.
lets try
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
Tony Bobulinski held presser claiming Joe Biden knew about Hunter's business deals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiiSq7toqlQ
Bill Egan writes:
Bill Rafter has a very nice model.
Yes, rolling windows mean you cannot use standard inference.
So what?
Use the levels and turning points and curve shapes. Apply visual pattern recognition.
Look back over 20-30 years and see how it performs. For example, high volatility vs low volatility years can cause differences.
You are missing out on $$$ by insisting on using only methods where inference works.
Election Survival Guide
Perhaps of interest from my online journal:
https://stpeter.im/journal/1653.html
Tweets-Oct/26/2020
possibly a goo d entry at 3428 sp at 220 am et
Tweets-Oct/25/2020
compliancecultureblog.com/2018/03/07/integrity-of-game-play-referee-bias/… compared to the home court bias and the popular pressure bias the incumbent seems to receive a level of bias 1000 times worse. the suposedly impartial comittees and agencies are all 90% wuth swamp
big media are canceling news of? wealth of the son and brothers. 4. big bus favors the big guy because he is less unpredictable than the alternative according to wsj.survery. 4. they feel he will do things pragmatic to help the lower middle classes.5. what is best way ?
a few things seem clear to me. 1. if the news about the big guys familyhad some out before the dem convention, a different progressive ( perhaps bernie ) would be the candidate. 2. the progressives are hoding their fire until afterl the election . 3. the big media and tech are
State by State Election Betting Markets
Pinnacle and many others are now posting state by state betting lines that may offer interesting overlays to those with detailed knowledge.
Some of the battleground states:
Arizona: +118 Trump Biden -143
Florida: -128 Trump Biden +106
Georgia: -177 Trump Biden +131
Mich: +239 Trump Biden -304
Minn: +251 Trump Biden -322
N Car: +100 Trump Biden -121
Ohio: -250 Trump Biden +200
Penn: +184 Trump Biden -228
Texas: -375 Trump Biden +287
Wisc: +225 Trump Biden -285
They have the overall election at +190 Trump Biden -217
Tweets-Oct/24/2020
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_drive… the big guy widens his lead to 28 percentage points after the debates and the change in views on fracking and the denial of impropriety with relatives on Ukraine and China and the market goes up
i should say :" come in contact with" rather than " met".on ewonders why the hard drive of the son stayed at the bureau for 3 months withouto leaking or action
with the big guy firmly in control, and his lead in te betting odds seemingly insurmoutnable, the regularties for the next week in sp are are very bull. a surge for the incumb could change it as would a devastating down move in bonds
Tweets-Oct/23/2020
what a contempt politicians have for us mortals. " even though Joe Biden does not share our poltical beliefs ( he is much better than the alternative ) says michael Moore. how have big boys purporte dpolitical beliefs changed since the Dem convention
Tony Bobulinski Held Presser Claiming Joe Biden Knew About Hunter’s Business Deals
K. K. Law writes:
Tony Bobulinski held presser claiming Joe Biden knew about Hunter's business deals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiiSq7toqlQ
Penny Brown writes:
Why didn't this come out sooner? Wouldn't it have been more effective to drop the bombshell before so many votes were turned in?
Or was it purposively held back to last minute so there were be no time to refute?
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
The answer is that the smart Republicans in AZ, FL, PA and elsewhere learned from 2018. They know that you have to let the Democrats vote first so that they can't figure out how many "extra" votes they will need to find on Election Day to overtake the Republicans' "lead". When the Republicans are behind, there is no way for the Democrats to make that calculation. Remember, kids, that successful voter fraud is a two-step trade: first, you need the Registrations, then you need the ballots. Even in Philadelphia you can't these days vote more people than you already have on the voter rolls. (Oh, for the good old days.)
Tweets-Oct/22/2020
for whats eems like the 80 th time the s p slips badly at the close and we see why now as the fbi makes a semblance of bing there. neverthelss the big deline ins sp at 3421 is much overwrought
the big boys lead advances to 26 percentage pts,, near a max no disclosure seem sufficient to unwrap the cellophane.the debate with fellow travelers setting rules .
moderating should be de rigeur all in all a further augmentation of agrarian which the market loves
the bonds hit set a new 20 day low in the 172 handle showing that some believe in the Mises analysis that uncontoled inflation will be the next pandemic. presumablly this means a heads up for the stimulus bill after falling apart at the close 5 days in a row to be passed
Tweets-Oct/21/2020
beginning to hit the bonds at 20 day low. senate odds move up against the big boys party. stocks intnerruptus yesterday
recentlly a woman's march, and now a commmittee for justice.. let us hopep the big boy wins so that a reign doestn begin
one calls out for a speedier , more humane,less painful,and more effcient way . where is the americaan Joseph Ignatus
a barron coleman day so far. 'eveythings up except my widdler "
thanks for ht e kona coffee mr. sogi. perhaps i soud send you some3 ebigers peach pie in a few minutes. how often can lacik of stimulus tank the market last houri owe yoyuthis time mr. sogi ebingers went out of busienss due to declining taste for sweets and competitin from entemans.. it ws russian interference and sdisinformation. tooo much chess and not enuf checkers
Tweets-Oct/20/2020
a di rigeur day with bonds hitting the 173 handle and sp paying abeisance to Mr. sogi a few times. the BIG guy has cellophane around him and maintains his lead of 26 percentage pts. as stated the market loves socialism and the Jacobins have it n their hitting box
Think There Might Be a Pattern Here
The 538 national polling average 12 days before Election Day.
2020: Biden+9.8
2016: Clinton+6.0
2012: Romney+1.2
Bosch
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
Murakami writes,"convenient approximations bring you closest to comprehending the true nature of things.
Laurel Kenner writes:
Also: Walter Mosley's two series of noir set in LA and NYC, with heroes East Rawlings and Leonid McGill. Inherent Vice and the Crying of Lot 49, by the paranoid master Thomas Pynchon
and Raymond Chandler for the ultimate portrait of prewar LA.
Peter Saint-Andre writes:
My wife, who is a big fan of the Bosch series, also recommends the Joe
Gary Boddicker writes:
I’ll second the C.J. Box recco, but I’m biased. Chuck was my next door dorm neighbor many years ago at Denver U and a friend. He would disappear into his room (even in the midst of a party) and we’d hear the typewriter banging for hours as we waited in anticipation…out would come a double-spaced, creative, plotted, story…usually things had “gone Western” and the bad guys met a very satisfying end.
He is a wonderful example of someone who always knew what he loved to do, kept working at it until he got a break, and is now among the best in his field. He’s been banging out one or two a year for many years now and you won’t be bored. Especially appealing to those who appreciate the modern West, it’s people, the outdoors, and a good story.
Al the Hermit Bo
Al the Hermit of Slab City, CA died on or about 21 October, 2020, and I’m not sure where the body is.
His demise will interest no one except collectors and students of those who accumulate like packrats so many items in their lifetimes that they may cave in and crush or suffocate them.
My buddy Al lived alone in the most remote, inaccessible toenail of Slab City near Walmart Wash. A decade ago, he had driven his old Chevy van as close to Salvation Mountain as he wished, and mired it on the hubs in the sand that became his home. He was about 80 years old.
He was a former advertising ace for McCall’s magazine in NYC, until deciding life in the fast lane wasn’t worth it, and spent his savings traveling the world until retiring ten years ago to the Slabs. He was seldom seen, known by fewer, and kept to himself except to walk in all seasons for three miles to the nearest bus stop in Niland to ride to the Brawley, Ca. library. He was transcribing his life formulas from some 50 spiral notebooks onto a memory stick that he hoped someone would read one day and turn into a book. It was a lifelong quest, but a gibberish of math, Hebrew, philosophy, and pith. He shared it with me once that revealed thousands of lines of what appears to be an ancient language lost to time.
Everything else he owned was inside the van crashed around his mattress on the floor that was wet with urine and feces with the unmistakable stench of death, I figured, about two days earlier in these 90F fall days. The spiral notebooks were there in ziplock bags, and five large garbage bags of memorabilia and correspondence dating back to the dime stamp. including his wedding picture. I donned a Corona mask against the reek and pulled a couple recent letters to write the senders in New England of his demise.
His false teeth were still on the table, and I snatched his reading glasses. The only other things of note were stuffed animals all over the place and one carcass of a rabbit that was just fur, claws, and teeth in the driver’s seat.
Then I went and sat outside the van and stared off into the sky thinking, Al had it good here. It’s quiet, close to a wash for walking, a beautiful view of Salvation Mountain, and no neighbors. As I thought, a quad bumped over the wash, turned toward the van, and drove right up.
‘I was wondering if it were true,’ said the lady I know. I replied, ‘It appears he died within the past few days. You may look inside, everything is intact except Al.’ The rider lit a cigarette, “I gave him a lift many times over the years. He was a tough old bird.’ I asked, ‘When did the coroner come?’ ‘Coroner? I don’t know.’
She sped off as I wondered how she knew about the death. Probably smelled it from the same wash I had hiked up. I rose and walked an enlarging spiral around the van, and 50 yards away found matching quad tracks. She also happens to be the same individual who found, and moved, the body of Mama Jean one year ago.
A dead body is more valuable than a live one in Slab City if the deceased has a bank account, which Al and Mama Jean did. The technique is to milk the account of its auto-deposits of SSI, which both were on, until the death is discovered by the authorities.
I couldn’t report this to the sheriff or ask the coroner if indeed he had picked up a corpse in a van because they would call me crazy that anyone would move dead bodies to steal their identities.. Besides, my fingerprints are all over the inside of Al’s van.
So, I sat outside, thinking this is likely what the passed citizens would wish for. Why not someone make money from the government after one’s death for as long as possible? It’s a racket out here.
Howard Jarvis is Rolling Over in His Grave
Alex Forshaw writes:
CA's property tax system is idiotic and the most dysfunctional in the country.
Property taxes are assessed on purchased basis, not on assessed value. So somebody who bought a home 30 years ago for $10,000 could pay 1/10th (or less) the property tax of someone in an identical house next door.
It has placed a huge relative tax burden on recent home buyers. It has subsidized the aging hippies who bought into CA 30 years ago, who have subsequently voted to throttle housing supply in the name of environmentalism for their own benefit
Kim Zussman writes:
Your thesis is based on commonality with losers and supplicants. The only ones subsidized, ever and always, are the socialist organizers.
Check back with us when you're at the end of your earning years. Without 13 those who always know better would squeeze you out of your house when you are old and useless to them. Even if you followed the rules, paid your taxes, and paid off the mortgage, there is always marketable pathos in the unending supply of hungry mouths to feed.
Alex Forshaw writes:
I'm a raging conservative and I think taxes suck. But if you're going to buy into the idea of a property tax, levy it in a way that's transparent and affects people on a logical and consistent basis. The CA property tax system charges nothing to people who bought 30-50 years ago (who are sitting on gigantic paper gains) and does the opposite to new buyers. It's totally inequitable, capricious, and creates lots of terrible incentives, more so than any other vanilla state tax that I can think of.
Larry W writes:
Howards point, and success of prop13, was the unfairness to people that had lived/worked in homes for year and could not afford the tax hike until they sold those gains are illusory until sold and the state was taxing a value the owner never pocketed
BTW Howard was pretty amazing ball of energy, perhaps I’ll share some stories of being on the campaign trail with him one of these days
Hi vol Big Bar
Another regular thing lately is after big boys finish dumping their excess into the close, the after market slowly rises up again. Here the half round tractor beam is assisting.
Tweets-Oct/19/2020
slite reductioln in Big Guys lead to 21 percentge pt from 34 to 42 1 week ago. dax refuses to go up today with sp. ecovering contrived russian news at 4 pm friday which caused decline of 37 full pts
Tweets-Oct/18/2020
From The Time It Never Rained by Elmer Kelton
Read: http://tl.gd/n_1srehkt
MSM Shoots Themselves in the Foot
Larry W writes:
Who wants to watch a game when you know it will be a lopsided victory?
Only die-hards. If you have been told by the MSM your guy, who you are only luke-warm about to begin with, is 10 points up….no need to go vote.
MSM shoots themselves in the foot.!
Gus Glads writes:
Larry– I see your point and, to some extent, that explains 2016.
But it's a different kind of "game" this time around. This isn't about voting for "your guy" to win. It's about voting down the other "guy" because you'll do whatever it takes to ensure that he loses. And the bigger the loss on the scoreboard the better. A much different calculus, which will lead to much different behavior this time around.
Larry W writes:
Disagree turn out is based on enthusiasm not hate—look at RR and BObam turn outs as an example hate/revenge, surveys say, do not turn out voters
Gus Glads writes:
I agree Larry but you’re talking about normal times, with normal candidates
No precedent for what he’s created
Record #s will be recorded this election
He has dug his own hole and it’s deep
Too many think he has some magic dust that he’s sprinkling — ain’t no magic in that dust my friends.
Models vs Execution
On Saturday a fire started and ripped 8000 acres and traveled more the 10
miles in less than 3 hours till finally firefighters made a stand at a wide,
two-lane road. 26 homes burnt to the ground. No one hurt thank goodness. Next
day another fire starts first reported at 5 acres. Extrapolating from the
prior day, fire 2 should be closing in on Boulder in 6 hours. Yet, it did not
happen. Fire 2 never got within 12 miles or above 300 acres. Credit goes to
brave pilots in DC-10 Airtankers and firefighters on the ground. Those planes
are as sight to behold as they graze the tree line spreading 10,000 gallons of
fire retardant at a pop. Wind, moisture, terrain, plane availability, fuel can
all be put into models and they may help, but it is execution and
improvisation that really save the day.
Tweets-Oct/17/2020
2-5-2018 a monday the market dropped 81 pts from 3pm to 4.15: but the declines want over to 4 am on feb 6, 2018
What;s happpening oon walll street1 1. The Bit guy's lead is whittled down to 26 percentage pts. still 2 to 1 in his favor. 2. The bonds and stocks have both ended close to u nchanged 2 days in a row. The paper of record has a feature article extolling free speech-
they disdain to cover the many newsworhty and verifiable authenticity of the Big Guys activities. 4. The Mailman showos that oenshould never give up
Tweets-Oct/16/2020
but indeed there have been 8 such moves of 38 of more pts, since 2011, the greatest being 2-11-1998, a day that will live in infamy
the sp toook a surprising 38 pt drop from 3 pm to the futures close moving spf from up 15 on the day to down 10 at 415 . you mite thini that this is unpreced
No One Thinks Biden is Finished?
So everyone is looking at the technicals: the polls? How about the fondamental part: the scandal?
Is There Some Study Available
…..of the efficacy of betting markets predicting the real election outcomes, anywhere?
Can the Theory of Reflexivity not been hoped to work and the bets are manipulated?
Both questions may appear related but are deeply apart.
Elimination Games
Astros won their elimination game. Three of them in a row.
Dodgers appear to be winning their second of two elimination games.
My historical analysis of baseball elimination games suggests it will be a Astros / Dodgers World Series.
Election Thoughts
Peter Ringel writes:
love all of these relative strength thoughts / models.
The market is much stronger than the seasonal pattern
Thus the next seasonal low should springboard a better than usual rally
If trump wins expect larger rally than if biden carries the day (better rallies when party stays in power, thanks JH)
That’s my strategy
I don't known what drove this rally, but I assume election uncertainty is bearish. Since the mkt is not - we have a monster driver in here.
There's a humongous fungus amungus!
… disprove my fear of a media/swamp
Wait ! there is any doubt left ? 
K. K. Law writes:
Don't know for sure, but the recent bull trend could correlate with the potential Trump November win. Will see if it will take out the Aug/Sept highs. If it forms a double top and reverses, that would be a different story.
Election Modeling
For the encore, will do Tip Toe Through the Tulips, while wearing a tutu.
Tweets-Oct/15/2020
Bonds conntinue on their merry way goingu whenever stoocks go down. the forces of " big gov" were not able to enable sp to rise for two consecutive days. the pes odds continue to worsen against the incumbent with a 30 percentge pt. differential
Tweets-Oct/13/2020
just to set the record straight for a great man and great book https://goodreads.com/book/show/1051837.The_Economic_Way_of_Thinking… this book i've read over and learned from at lest 10 times.. no diagrams or mathematcis just clear reasoning on the economic way of thinkin
foxnews.com/politics/amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court-confirmation-hearing-notepad… 3 cheers touche.. d's willl have to be very carefu to hold their fire on her like thyeve agreed to with Bernie
amazing that bonds bak to their old habits going upp a fulll point on the first day down off almost alll time high in stocks. somehow they dont believe how Mises said it will all end in runaway inflation
mr. fanta notes that the 2 dya has been down 15 consecuitve days.. have you tested that? is what you shoud ask about allll suc phenomena which goes over and beyond the t urn to socialism
sometimes the sure turn to socialism is not bullish for a day… should be bak to woke bulishness tomorrow
Supply Chain
A few months ago Ralph mentioned the possibility of supply chain disruptions. My seawater pump on my sailboat is leaking. When I went to try order a new pump the supplier said there are no sea water pumps in the country, and the manufacturer has been shut down for 2 months due to covid. I'm on a waiting list.
I also questioned the effects on real estate. In Hawaii my broker friend tells me that buyers from the mainland are snapping up multimillion dollars houses sight unseen and that prices are strong. They must figure that if they work remotely, why not be in Hawaii. They haven't experienced the time difference. I'll tell you that waking up at 3am in the morning is not easy, and it also means you have to go to bed early, so its tough. But someone's got to do it.
The Airbnb's are all shut down, so I think some of those are on market.
Due to a lack of tourists and snow birds I'm guessing the rental market is not as tight as it was. We have no horn honking tourists and no heavy traffic, so its quite nice.
I'm pushing our candidates to ease off on the heavy dependance on tourism as it can be destructive and unreliable. Better industries in tech, like the woman who won the Nobel prize discovering the Black Hole in the center of Milky Way at Keck Observatory on Mauna Kea. A friend worked up there as a tech up there for his entire career.
Tweets-Oct/12/2020
https://foxnews.com/politics/fauci-comments-out-of-context… final deth blow. rather loathsome
challenger holding fire axcept lobs that green new deal is still favored.. looks like deal to keep silent for a few weeks has been made implicitly
15 days sicne 2 day sp down
Tweets-Oct/11/2020
challl lead at maximu at 325 nikkei at high, bonds creeping up fro low. tiimes re;ports 1 after another negative about pres. character and integrity. what do they have on tap for next days
wsj.com/articles/to-serve-the-public-seek-profits-11602435735?mod=hp_opin_pos_2… forgive me for saying that marxism, big government isnt good for markets nor is taxing just the ones that make the most
"Night and day there are businessmen out there thinking of ways to feed us, to entertain us, to keep us (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sre9j1
Tweets-Oct/10/2020
much discussio has takenpalce that after the election with bidne continuing to maxiize hsi lead at 31 percentage pts, the r willnever again be elected. the three new states , the end of the filibuster, have been mentioned, the widening of voting to felons and open borders
what not mentioend is that all the new bailouts create new voters beholden to big government, ,socialized activiity, , ith each new deal more become beholden.. the money spent on bailouts could have been spent by consuemrs on consump. future output will take big hit
https://listverse.com/2014/05/02/10-cruel-death-marches-from-modern-history/… add to this the steady drum beat of incresing government before electionthat now has market totallly in favor of d's and more socializationk, and higher taxes, and soaking the rich.
The d and obvilioysly hodlignitheir fire ad challenger mover to the center to garner votes, but harris and sanders havehungry lookds and like the french rev after they gain power, the chinese walls will break down.
SPEC-LIST
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
It looks like there are sharp steep drops and no other chance to buy, then an unrelenting drive upwards. The election discussion, I think, is related and why SJ's call last election was important. The problem, for me, is staying up all night.
Arthur Khaldarov writes:
There were other guys that predicted the opposite of SJ's call and right now we would've been quoting them.
…(obviously, if their prediction came true).
This list can tackle mini problems and become a great source of knowledge. Ideas are dime a dozen, but here we can analyze 3 a week and maybe have some home runs.
Ralph Vince writes:
There is nothing to prevent others from contributing ideas here, market, electoral, whatever, and the political ones as well.
there is not a limited number of messages per day or a limited number of topics.
There is however a limited number of people on this list, and only a subset who contribute. This argument rings of being dissatisfied that those who are contributing aren't being interesting enough. Those who have contacted you off list and complained about the electoral discussion have been welcome at any time to contribute all sorts of diverse topics here in addition to whatever is being discussed at the moment.
Huvve Soo
Huvve Soo is a powerful expression of the markets at Dalal Street in Mumbai. A phrase from the more popular vernacular on this street, i.e. Gujarati language is chuckled up to mean literally Now what or so What!
An expression that without the slightest of the twitch of the nose or lifting of the eyelids is slowly muttered out with a warm breath.
So if Trump Wins, the traders on Dalal Street may say with boredom Huvvee Soo.
However, if Trump loses, my surmise is the whole world may ask "Now what will happen?".
This world has got aligned to having far right regimes across the globe. Arguably the most influential nation losing that far right stance will mean this wave of far right governments across continents is coming to an abrupt halt. Never in the 20th century, if my memory serves right, the difference between the GDP Growth Rate differential between China and the rest of the world was wider! While it was a point of global angst when everyone was doing well and China was doing too well, it is going to be hurting all sensibilities much more when China has begun to do well, being the only nation with a positive GDP growth rate and everyone else is hovering at -10% just now.
I can go on and on to explain my bias that if Trump loses this wont be the same world I have been happy in for several years. But thats my own bias.
In marketspeak, I place another surmise that the usual thing many a bettors on the bourses do around a major election that they use the election betting rink as a hedge to their market exposure will fail either ways this time!
Whether Trump wins or he loses, markets are likely to do a Huvve Soo either side. Its another story politically i may feel happy if the aggressive big man with yellow hair wins & with that happiness I may still short the markets if a reversal works out with the typical huvve soo.
But the point on the table for eventual dismissal after evaluation by the wiser on this list is: The election betting market will fail to predict the S&P this time round. Whatdyasay?
Good Quote
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
From wsj article on profits "Night and day there are businessmen out there thinking of ways to feed us, to entertain us, to keep us healthy, to help us communicate — all out of a desire for profit. The profit motive is the producer’s motive. It is the desire to prosper by creating and offering for sale the values we need to live and enjoy life — and to spearhead the invention of new values that raise our standard of living. The profit motive is the foundation of human happiness and human progress." — from the book "Equal is Unfair" by Yaron Brook and Don Watkins
Richard Owen writes:
Hi Vic - a noble story. It does feel though that if you tried to launch any benchmark business in recent years (presumably with a tech enabled angle) with the intention of collecting real profits, you were done for. QE took away the discount rate and corrupted the need for profits and perhaps underwrote much of the current chaos. With a 3% real fed, housing would be affordable and Jeff Bezos a lot poorer, allegedly two roots for mass discontent. And maybe the aim of competing improvements in products and services drove capitalism some time ago. Because there was a large productivity gap between what people were capable of and what they achieved. But now people seem to be operating closer to the asymptote. Where I am currently living there are three identical copies of Uber, and the only way to differentiate their product is who is willing to accept the biggest deficit of profits until the competition goes bankrupt. Capitalism's main end is no longer who is attracted by profits but who can most convincingly promise unrealistic distant future profits. Imagine there's no antitrust, it's easy if you try, no competition below us, above us, only sky.
Hernan Avella writes:
Nevermind the rents extracted by businesses that nobody needs and are the product of cronyism and regulatory capture. Think 401k plan administrators and health care insurance middle men. H
What Happened in 2018
Big Al writes:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/money-and-elections-a-complicated-love-story/ Money is certainly strongly associated with political success. But, “I think where you have to change your thinking is that money causes winning,” said Richard Lau, professor of political science at Rutgers. “I think it’s more that winning attracts money.”
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
Did I miss the memo? Has there been an edict that particular facts are to be subsumed into coy academic attempts at irony?
There is one professor book that created the standard for electoral analysis and predictions: *The American Voter* by Angus Campbell, Philip Converse, Warren Miller, and Donald Stokes. They produced a detailed analysis of the 1952 and 1956 Presidential elections using what is still a wonderfully subtle methodology. Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Helmut Norpoth, William G. Jacoby and Herbert F. Weisberg took that work, applied the extraordinary advances in computing and computation since 1958 and revisited that work. *The American Voter Revisited* does the 2000 and 2004 elections. 1952 and 1956 elections. Professor Lau thinks he has invented a superior methodology; his proof is hat his model correctly predicted how 3 out of 4 voters in a mock election made the same choice that they would have made "under conditions of perfect information". Meanwhile, Professor Norpoth continues to stick his neck out and make a prediction every 4 years based on his primary turnout model. (For those who don't know it, he picks Trump.)
You can do better, Big Al.
Duncan Coker writes:
Since you brought up the 1952 and 1956 for those who don't remember Adlai Stephenson was the Democratic candidate against Eisenhower. It marked the start of televised and advertised campaigns. It also launched the start of a company called Simulmatics. They were the first to apply data and simulation to campaigns and politics, granted they were using punch card tech. Parsing data into groups like "white non-college educated, rural voter" or "women suburbanites" they were the first to use. Kennedy hired them in earnest to help him get elected. They did not predict elections so much as the issues that might turn elections and which side was best. For Kennedy they recommended expanding civil right issues, not hiding from being Catholic and more debates. They were not wrong but perhaps Kennedy would have done all thee things anyway. Today take the same process, but multiply the computing
speed by 1 million x. All in a very good book called If Then by Jill Lepore.
Tweets-Oct/8/2020
ultimately the market will showrevulsion with the socailistagenda. the questio is whethert he revulsio beings overnnite or at 1 pm todya. alll the money spent on non-productivea ctivities willl eventualy haunt as in digginig adn filling holes in the desert
he market continues to act like it loves socialism
And Now Back to Financial Markets
The asymmetry of real vol is always amazing with sudden drops and then the steady grind upwards.
Tweets-Oct/7/2020
okay i do know much about racket sports. everal readers have given their take. but it's like faking a drop shot, and having your adversary rush to the net and then hitting him in the testiacles with a hard drive
i try not to tweet about things i am ignorant about but my ignorance is great. if some fencer can say what tripe intentions really is , the readers and I would reallly appreciate it
that John Normile many time national epee champion and market maven
nadi laments in his book that very few of the modern 20 th century fenncers actually use triple intentions any more. shout out to johoon normile who was nat. e[ee champpion who alerted me to this lapse in modernday fencning a nd markets
https://amazon.com/Fencing-Aldo-Nadi/dp/188452804X… triple intention is faking a move that yo ur opponent reacts to and then making your coutner move to his delivery
nadi on triple intention
chabce gardner should be on triple guard today. 1last tiime he killed market. as 2 he did yesterday with illl chosen naivewords. and 3 presumably mrk tokhim to the wood shed after 2
back to 3pm level tues except for 4% drop inlast hour. pres continues to fall behind by 24% from chall. bonds finally showing that Mises predicted with runawy inflation ultimately at new low again
amazing that of all that have come down from the vistorian age, the most resonant one is the series of comic operas by G and S. i find the same self dealing ,posturing in congress then as now. if you want to be ruler of the queens navy stay close to your cellar. wear mask
kudlow must have been in quaran pres must have acted without him. kudlow sayihg to himself " i told you so. dont go off on a limb. consult me first as you have in past. pres is his own man even though he know as little about sp as chance gardner does about economy.what a combo
amazing pres seems think he won debate, that the women dont see their abusve divorced husbands in him but now chall pretnds that he;s not a socialist ,that all his previous leanings were window dressings. lets see if most lib record in congress ms. harris can pull sme trick
surprise annouce was good for 1000 dow pts down in just 2 hours at low of 500 pm. lost in shuffle was cattle trader trying to cover up hier emails with accuation of russian collusion by opponent. no sympathy surge for pres. no matter what he does, its against him
incumb is feeling better but his bettigodds witih at keast 159mm wagered keep going against him. now 61% vs 25% against. even more worrisome is chances of repub senate at 64-36 against. the surprise announcemnet at 250 pn nust have taken Kudlow by surprise as in middle of da
Tweets-Oct/6/2020
incumbent is bak in white house but his defecit in bettingi odds increses to 24 percentage pts. bonds at another 20 day lo at open
ignoramus running economy and politicking
A Polling Anniversary
Four years ago these were the numbers:
NBC Clinton +14
ABC Clinton +12
CBS Clinton + 11
AP Clinton +13
Monmouth Clinton +12
Atlantic Clinton +12
USA Today Clinton +10
CNBC Clinton +10
Tweets-Oct/5/2020
one improtant lesson to learn is to hae astoppping rule concerning an activity when there has been a run of good fotune rhather than a loss..e.g.. the idea of stoppping when youlve lost a thousand bucks at vegas is worse than stopping when youve made a thou.
there will be no moreo predictions forom this twitter for a while.
one of those days where every half hour price from 6 pm to present was withing 7 pts of open or preivous price. public has no rite to be insulated from loss so much as bacon would say.
this has to be tested as everything else.. i would say this applies to a series of trades with the same gravumen rather than to an individual disparate trade
bonds very quietly arabesking to a 20 day low at open
the wikipedia page on the french revolution iswritten from a woke perspective. no mantionwhatsoever aobut the reign of terror and the 10000 who were guillotine and loss of property. one of causes according to wiki was the deregulation of prices. the french revolution
to me is very relevant to today especially as a predictor of the increasing interventions and big government sure to come especiallyif the incumbent wins
17000 not 10000
a better summary then wiki on the reign of terror, the law of 22, the 50000 to 220000 that were killed
Tweets-Oct/3/2020
amazing drop in pres. odds of winning . now 61% fro chall and 27% for incumb. a differential of 24 percentage pts verus 7 or 8 1 week ago, cattle trader somehow moves up to 2% . the reign of retribution willl come. whol will be the next robespierre. what does this foretell?
unsung major caus e of swings was bias of chris walllace against trump. so many areas he prevented biden from admitting no police force, let him off on hunter. . let hism call pres a lia and clown. reminds mf of the bias alll refere had against me when i won 10 natnls in row
Tweets-Oct/2/2020
market has never been down more than 25 at 9 am on an employment analysis. it was bearishas of thur close. the tendency on the times it was down aroudn25 is for it to down to 910 then up. only 6 obseervations . on major pres. illnesses the market recovers after thefirst day . then by 5 days lat er iit's bak to the pre sickness news. the pres ods moved to 60% versus 35% for 'challanger. that should keep it down for the early hours
usually the m market knows about these events before it anouced. perhaps the declineat 210 on thur. was related to thsi announcement i see no other evidence of any front running
mr ag trader tweets that cpper knew before hand but stocks cratered at 12 35 am going down 1% , as far as u can see cper made a mmajormove up at 330 am. perhaps im mssiing some thing. i dont trade copperr-lack of liquidity. susan was first woman copper trader on floor
as marty riesman would say next five minutes from 915 to 920 am et arekey. danger of falllign to round number seems less liekly at 920 bulll frhm there
the glitter falls off at 945 acck=odriding tomy numbers willl we be visitign mr. sogi beofroe then>
mr sogi i lll have to leave you above 3353 you cant have breakfast alll day
mr. sogi it;s bee too log since i visitied you in your favorite adobe. i ;m sort of close to you and they say surfing is very good for keepihg healthy for those of age
Tweets-Oct/1/2020
if ine had to guess for the rest oof the day, the market loves big government deciding how, andwho, and what to do do
perhaps more government in thenext half hour or so
Some Comments on the Debate
Whenever trump was scoring a point , wallace cut him oof. when heasked biden toname on e police force that was in favor of him, wallace moved to next question. same when he was asked whether he was going tostack the supreme court. bidden answered vote. and t hat stopped it. also, when asked about blm itwas again stoped. also, trump lost all female votes because he reminded them of their abusive divorced husbands. trumpp shouldnt have brought up the point about biden being smart. 3ewpecailly since the incumsked someone on our list to take gr examsx for him… amny way walllac e was likke the old man referee who couldnt adjust to changing conditions and was biased against incumbent
Fact of the Week
George Zachar writes:
The Manhattan Project guys were all (Jewish) immigrants too. Richard Feynman was a native New Yorker, who grew up in the Rockaways.
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
Apologies for not including Feynman; my explanation is that he was a "junior" scientist. The complete list of scientists and engineers who worked on the thing runs into the thousands.
Dendi Suhubdy writes:
I’m worried that the Chinese government would win this artificial intelligence cold war to be honest. There are a lot of people who just devote their lives in China to annotate labels and also to code deep learning code in C++.
In Montreal there are probably 400 of us max. And I haven’t seen a precision guided missile using deep learning and simuated reinforcement learning whatsoever. You can simulate multiple times in a simulator that a missile can hit a target, given enough time and computational resources. You then transfer the learning e.g weights from that to the real missile and calibrate.
That would help the missile be guided by literally only a 180 wide angle camera even if it looses GPS capabilities.
The US isn’t innovating rapid enough. Never seen that in a SBIR announcement.
Tweets-Sep/30/2020
as predictied the market loves socialismt , increased taxes, and the green new deal. the odds against incumbent moved down by 9%. its a landside for the challenger. and the market went up 5 points. its not cricket. it makes one wish to throw in the towel. 59% versu 37.%
as markman says about the gret mr. e , "Even when he's wrong he makes you money" i was wrong about the amrket's reaction to the debate. as soon as the odds on s=challanger went to landslide territory of 20% from 11 or 12% be teh debte the market went down., perhap by 1%
apparentlyy some people beside the bilious billionaires dont wish to have their wealth confisated
i go bak to my original theem the market loves socialism. it has a self destructive mien. i buying at 1 am
at least there will be no "peaceful protests" on nov 3
like armand hammer and the palindrome who often liked to hurrah me because any proofits i made would go to the account of the : soviet novrokony bank i have no compunction in taing a profit from the turn to the left one willl need it
it waw very dark at the end of the tunnel when 1291 hit the fan
not to admit that one mite have made a profit as it moved from 3300 3314. thinkin g bak to the good old days before the palindrome severed his relation with me, i recall with stalwarness the two rules he taught me. ` 1 use two cans of tennis ball. 2 never admit to a prft
never admit to green on the balance sheet
the main loser in the betting odds wias madame royale the vp in waiting. her odds of becoming pres ths eletion felll by 50% as the chance that hte boss woud pass away in a m onth decreased to almost zero with hsi vibrant performance
much baka nd forth about who won the debate and in the meanwhile the challlangers lead doubled to 22 percentage pts from 11 befr the debate. amadame royale has her chance of beoming next pres down to 0.2%
i reiterate my originaltake. " the market loves big government, marxism, and socialism. and they prefer a cellephonic candiate to a strident one. shld be
Tweets-Sep/29/2020
very quietly as grandfather martin would say, the sp has arabesque unitl a 19 day high .as ow here it goes from here, that wkp depend on the agraraince grying to break all business and create misery and humuliate supreme court prospect
Tweets-Sep/28/2020
the challanger keeps increasing lead .now 12 % pts. the service payments and the supreme court give the agrarians some more to chisel. when will the populac learn that socialism isnt god for them or their country. the format of the debates gives the chall time to memorze
thats enuf in my opinion
Tweets-Sep/27/2020
we have the sp way down on a 20 day basic and bonds near an all time hgh, crude hovering at @$40.00 pres odds movig evry day aginst inumb. where is it going?
the drift is ubiquitous and for alll times especially with the return on capital 10 times higher than th e 30 year rate. so its just a question of time when the stocis recover from the frenzied hopes of the bilious one who wish to prevent competition for thier progeny
i am asked to translate. the pwer of compound interest . 15 % which busiesses make on their capital ivessted comes to 16 times as mcuh ater 20 years as 1 % fixxed income yield. that seem more impoortant to me than the desire to icnrese capital gains taxes to 49% by the
challanger wishes to distance himself now from the socialist agenda. but as inthe french revolution the Jacobins will only grow more strident and violence willl ncrease no matter who win but especially if the incumb wins
A hypotthesis
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
If a devil were to cast a spell and alll wealthy from specualting and investing would be confiscated, in addition to the bilious billionaires whoa rare guarding the selfish genese of their progeny, i would say that the market would go up… the same reaction to tehh broe businesses and schooll closure and social isoaltioon and propaganda of the resistance and violence that we see charactirzed by the dem leader tearing up the state of union massge.. okay here is the query . why a re investors so self destrucitve that they hope for an inumbent win. the way the did for the cattle trader?
Arthur Khaldarov writes:
because in the end they make a lot more with someone who is predictable and controllable. What good money is if you can't control/buy power with it? Another boat or a house?
Jordan Neuman writes:
The market is now predominantly big tech. Aren't those really Democratic stocks now?
Tweets-Sep/25/2020
By The Editorial Board Sept. 25, 2020 7:05 pm ET SAVE PRINT TEXT 57 General view of the J. Edgar Hoover (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srdnat
They ( the bears hoping for ruination school closings ,businesses closing before the election )tarted today with exuberance that there were 3 weeks in a row with stock down. now they can exult over at least one 15 minute period down amidst the 40-50 ppt rise
the forces of destruction are never satisfied and there is a myth that a low is never a singleton. they moved it down to 3207 and the billious ones who can afford hundreds of million to pay off all the felony fines in florida and their pet agrarian groups had fire powr
Tweets-Sep/24/2020
m mack suggests an analogy to 1929 with all the irrationalbuls. but i sgugest that itslike the French revolution and similar accusations and trials and executions..we can only hope that the incumbent doenst win as there will be violence galore , chaos, and evrything suuk
they thouoght they had match point and they could sink the stock market , the economy, and create misery . but alll to no avail. they will hav to try again later
what a disappointment for all the bilious billionnaires and members of the estates . they got their correction and were even able to get it below the round of 3200… and then it went up a few %
magic number at 3318 which is 10% coorrection and very bullish as it all downs today
One Reason I Voted for Trump
Sidney academia did.
He died 2 years ago.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidney_Shachnow
Final Prediction
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
On election day Trump will be behind in every battleground state by a margin of at least 4 points. The public polling numbers will look even worse than they did in 2016. The current raw poll data - ignore RCP et. al. - shows Trump with a 40% chance of winning - which is what he had at this time in 2016.
I am betting against those odds and predicting that Trump will win, based on two assumptions about "events":
(1) on Saturday he will choose Barbara Lagoa as his nominee and the Democrats will do a Kavanaugh melt-down that lock down Florida and gain Trump 2-4 points in Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado. It may even save Cory Gardner. If he chooses Amy (Opus Dei) Barrett, he loses.
(2) the 3rd quarter GDP and economic numbers will be a blow-out that will ease the minds of the people who still resent Trump for allowing himself to be conned into betraying the people who earn a living outside of the corporate, government and non-profit moat - the land that I now think of as Oregano world..
Daniel grossman writes:
Thanks Stefan.
I agree, Trump will win. Although the Dems will put a tremendous final effort into PA and the Midwest swing states, so it will be touch and go.
Lagoa is the smart political choice. Harder to attack a Wise Latina.
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
Stefan, Now that he chose Barrett do you and all you other Trump supporters on this list think he will lose? And do you continue to think this is bearish?
Tweets-Sep/23/2020
https://cnn.com/travel/article/jenisbek-tserik-eagle-hunter/index.html… can ths trump bo
from 10pres odds decease for challlanger to 9% from 11% with 133 milll wagered. beginning of revulsion on turn to french revolution
they were both rite
Tweets-Sep/22/2020
the professor and the surfer in a desparate fight
it is a sad reflection that a lawyer with no training as an economist named chance gardner is determining and implementing a widespread collectivation and allocation of capital to political favored sectors with a nod to how it affects the election and the collegial fed
wonder if dr. bejan will see a large number today thereby giving mr. sogi a double hurdle
shocking strenth at the close yesterday